/ The ^ 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981 National Science Foundation //3 National Science Foundation For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION WASHINGTON DC 20550 OFFICE OF'THE P"'^="^°'' January 26, 1982 Tothe President and Members of Congress: I am pleased to transmit the second Five-Year Outlook on science and technology as required by the National Science and Technology Policy. Organization and Priorities Act of 1976. This Five-Year Outlook, like its predecessor, is based on the premise that discoveries and inventions pouring forth from the Nation's science and technology enterprise will continue to have a profound influence on all aspects of our lives. The report identifies an array of emergent issues that are likely to be of concern to American society during the next five years. It describes some of the problems, opportunities, and constraints associated with the use of science and technology to help define, illuminate and resolve those issues, and it examines several of the problems that may emerge as a result of scientific and technological activities themselves. In preparing this report, the Foundation obtained the views of a number of scientific organizations, as well as a range of Federal departments and agencies. These contributions, collected in two accompanying Source Volumes, reflect the vigor and diversity of American science and technology, and I commend them to your attention. Several themes persist amid this diversity: the shared responsibility of the public and private sectors for maintaining the strength of the Nation's science and technology enterprise; the vital contributions of science and technology to industrial innovation, productivity and economic growth; the changing international context of American science and technology; the need to base an ever-widening range of policy decisions on better scientific information; and the need to improve the level of scientific and technological literacy of all Americans to enable them to participate more productively in our increasingly technological society. Views of Government and non-Government specialists on each of these topics are drawn together in this report and highlighted in its Executive Summary. We have also synthesized their views about likely near-term problems, opportunities and constraints associated with the applications of science and technology in such specific areas as agriculture, energy and the environment, health, national security, and space. I believe that this Five-Year Outlook provides a useful framework for discussion in the Executive Branch, the Congress, and throughout the Nation about the best ways to focus our superlative national capabilities in science and technology to help increase productivity and economic growth, strengthen our national defenses, make more effective use of our human resources, and improve the quality of our lives and our environment. Respectfully, U John B. Slaughter Director MARINE BrOLOGlCAL LABORATORY LIBRARY WOODS HOLE, MASS. W. H. 0. I. Contents Page LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL PREFACE vii Key to Abbreviations viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix I GENERIC POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1 A. Introduction I B. Maintenance and Development of the Science and Technology Base. ... 2 Financial Support for Science and Technology 3 Human Resources for Science and Technology 7 Research Institutions 8 C. Contributions cf Science and Technology to Industrial Innovation. Productivity, and Economic Growth 12 The Causes of Lagging Innovation 13 The Reasons for Current Patterns of Industrial Research and Development Investments 14 Some Remedial Approaches 15 D. The International Context of U.S. Science and Technology 18 U.S. Science and Technology Relative to Other Industrialized Democracies 18 U.S. Science and Technology Relative to the U.S.S.R 20 Transnational Problems and Opportunities 21 Global Issues 23 E. Science. Technology, and Policymaking 25 Maximizing the Availability and Utility of Information for Decisionmaking and Policymaking 26 Science and Regulatory Processes 27 II FUNCTIONAL AREA PROBLEMS. OPPORTUNITIES. AND CONSTRAINTS 31 A. Introduction 31 B. National Security 32 Electronic Components 32 Electronic Systems 33 New Materials Technologies 34 Aeronautical Technology 35 Space Defense and Surveillance 36 Nuclear Test Verification 36 Human Resources 37 C. Space 38 Space Technology and Space Science 39 The Space Transportation System 39 Remote Sensing. Communications, and Data Management 41 International Cooperation and Competition 42 D. Health 43 Furthering the Prevention of Illness 44 Dealing with a Shifting Age Distribution 45 Dealing with the Problems of Addiction 46 Fostering the Development and Assessment of Health Care Technologies 47 Ensuring Adequate and Appropriate Health Service Delivery to All Americans 48 Constraints on Advances in the Health Area 49 E. Energy 50 Oil and Natural Gas Production 52 Coal and Coal Derivatives 53 Nuclear Fission 55 Renewable Resources 57 Nuclear Fusion 58 Improving Energy End-Use Efficiency 59 International Perspectives 59 F. Natural Resources 60 Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Nonfuel Minerals 61 Providing for a Sufficient Supply of Water 62 Preserving the Worlds Tropical Forests 64 Combating the Desertification of Lands 64 G. Environment 65 Atmospheric Effects of Fossil Fuels 65 Managing Hazardous and Toxic Substances 66 Improving Water Quality 67 Combating Air Pollution 68 H. Transportation 69 Dealing with Increased Capacity Requirements 69 Improving Transportation Performance 71 Improving Transportation Safety 71 I. Agriculture 72 Ensuring Adequate Resources for the Agricultural Enterprise. ... 73 Increasing Product Yields 74 Getting Agricultural Products to Market 75 Interactions with Other Sectors of Society 76 J. Education 76 Using the Opportunities Provided by Science and Technology in the Educational Process 77 Providing Adequate Education in Science and Technology 79 APPENDICES 83 Appendix A: Notes on Using the Five-Year Outlook and Its Sources 83 Appendix B: Preparation of the Five -Year Outlook 85 Appendix C: Acknowledgements 86 Preface The Five-Year Outlook on science and technology and its companion, the Annual Science and Technology Report to the Congress, are required by Title II of the Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976 (Public Law 94—282). Both reports are concerned with current and anticipated developments in science and technology and the effects of those developments on so- ciety. Both are designed to provide a partial response to the need, expressed by that legislation, for the Congress to be "regularly informed of the condition, health and vi- tality (of science and technology, and] the relation of science and technology to changing national goals'" (Sec- tion 102(b)-(6)) and for the executive branch to be able to "identify and assess emerging and future areas in which science and technology can be used effectively in address- ing national and international problems" (Section 205(a)-(10)). Preparation of the two reports is the responsibility of the Director of the National Science Foundation (NSF). Taken in conjunction with the National Science Board's Science Indicators, also prepared by NSF, they aim to provide a set of tools useful for policy planning and assessment. More broadly, they are intended as a framework for dialog among the executive and legislative branches of the Federal Government, practitioners and users of science and technology in the public and private sectors, and the general public. Science Indicators provides quantitative information, with some analyses, about recent trends in the resources devoted to science and technology and about some quantifiable impacts and outputs of scientific and technological activities. The Five-Year Outlook offers a more qualitative and, in some sense, complementary view of present and likely future trends. It identifies and de- scribes current and anticipated developments in science and technology as well as trends external to science and technology that are likely to have impacts on their con- duct. The Five-Year Outlook also suggests ways in which research can contribute to illuminating and resolving problems of national concern, and it points to constraints on the capacity of science and technology to make such contributions. The Five-Year Outlook is not meant to, nor does it, represent the official policies of the U.S. Govern- ment. Rather, it serves as an interagency discussion docu- ment and a focus for raising problems that might merit policy consideration in the coming years. The Annual Science and Technology Report, on the other hand, is a comprehensive statement of the Administration's science and technology policy. It discusses specific issues of con- cern to the Administration, selected because they are both timely and important, and because the Federal Govern- ment has a legitimate and significant role in their solution . The Annual Report also reviews Federally supported re- search and development activities throughout the Government. The two chapters that compose the body of the second Five-Year Outlook on science and technology aim at two different, but related, objectives. Chapter I focuses on the impacts that science and technology are likely to have on problems that transcend or cut across specific substantive fields or areas of application and on the ways in which developments external to science and technology are likely to affect their conduct. Its emphasis is on trends associated with four generic topics that are likely to con- tinue to be important for at least the next 5 years: (I) Maintenance and Development of the Science and Tech- nology Base; (2) Contributions of Science and Technol- ogy to Industrial Innovation. Productivity, and Economic Growth; (3) The International Context of U.S. Science Vll and Technology; and (4) Science, Technology, and Policymaking. Chapter II is concerned with the probable effects of developments in science and technology in specific areas of application. It discusses issues associated with nine functional categories: (1) National Security, (2) Space. (3) Health, (4) Energy, (5) Natural Resources, (6) Environ- ment, (7) Transportation, (8) Agriculture, and (9) Education. All the broad themes that underlie the discussions in the two chapters are drawn from source materials commis- sioned by NSF. Other published sources were also used occasionally to provide additional factual information or to amplify the discussions. The commissioned materials are published in two Source Volumes. The first volume consists of 17 chapters prepared by the National Research Council on human resources, natural resources and environment, research frontiers, research systems, and new technologies. The chapters offer the perspectives of individuals active in research in those areas. They do not necessarily reflect policies of the National Science Foundation or the U.S. Government. The second volume of source documents consists of the views of individuals selected by two organizations — the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy of the American Association for the Advancement of Sci- ence, and the Social Science Research Council. Their contributions deal, respectively, with public policy prob- lems associated with science and technology, and with current developments in social and behavioral science disciplines. Again, the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the policies of the National Science Foundation or the U.S. Government. The second of the Source Volumes also includes narra- tives prepared by task groups representing 22 Federal agencies. They deal with anticipated problems, oppor- tunities, and constraints related to science, technology, and public policy from the perspectives of the missions of those agencies. Finally, the second Source Volume in- cludes a selected, annotated bibliography of published sources and an index to both Source Volumes. Notes concerning the preparation of the Five-Year Out- look and the source materials appear in Appendix B. Key to Abbreviations Abbreviations appearing in parentheses throughout Chap- ters I and II refer to more complete discussions in the Source Volumes, to sources contributed to the first Five- Year Outlook, and to recent Science Indicators and An- nual Science anil Technology Reports. Citations to the published literature appear as footnotes. Tiihle I — Key to Abbreviations Used in the Text to Cite Source Mateiials Abbreviation Explanation Nongovernment Sources NRC-I.2.3. . . . Contribution of the National Research Council (in Sdurce Volume J) by chapter number. Note: NRC-Obs, refers to the discussion titled "Observations." by F. Seitz and P. Handler AAAS-1.2.3. . . . Contribution of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (in Source Volume 2) by chapter number. Note: AAAS-Obs. refers to the discussion tilled "Observations: Racing the Time Constants," by W. D. Carey SSRC-1,2,3. . . . Contribution of the Social Science Research Council (in Source Volume 2) by chapter number. Abbreviation Hxplanution Federal Agency Task Group Narratives (In Source Volume 2) NS National Security SPACE Space HEALTH Health ENERGY Energy GST General Science and Technology NR Natural Resources ENVIRON Environment TRANS Transportation AGR Agncullure EDUC Education lA International Affairs Other Selected NSF Reports Outlook I First Five-Year Outlook. 1980 ASTR-I.II.III Annual Science and Technology Reports: 1=1978, 11=1979, 111=1980 SI-78: SI-80 Science Indicators senes: 78= 1978. 80= 1980 Executive Summary America's capabilities in science and technology have provided the basis for its immeasurable contributions to human knowledge about the natural and the manmade universe. The deliberate and systematic application of that knowledge has, in turn, contributed to improvements in the quality of life and the environment, increased indus- trial and agricultural productivity, economic growth, and national security. Science and technology have provided detailed information and analytical tools to assist in weighing an array of policy options and in assessing the impact of policy choices. And science and technology have become important adjuncts to American foreign policy. This Five-Year Outlook is based on the premise that the unmistakable influence of science and technology on con- temporary trends and outcomes is unlikely to abate. It identifies an array of emerging national issues with high science and technology relevance that are likely to con- front the United States during the next 5 years. It describes some of the problems, opportunities, and constraints as- sociated with the use of science and technology to resolve those issues, and it examines problems that may emerge as a result of scientific and technological activities themselves. The issues described in this report have been identified in contributions from the National Research Council, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Social Science Research Council, and a wide range of Federal agencies whose missions involve science and technology. Many of the issues are generic in the sense that they transcend or cut across specific substantive fields or acknowledged areas of application. Those issues are identified and described in Chapter 1 — and summarized below — under four headings: (1) Maintenance and De- velopment of the Science and Technology Base; (2) Con- tributions of Science and Technology to Industrial Innova- tion, Productivity, and Economic Growth: (3) The International Context of U.S. Science and Technology; and (4) Science, Technology, and Policymaking. Other current and emerging issues center on problems, oppor- tunities, and constraints that are closely related to particu- lar substantive fields. Those problems, opportunities, and constraints are identified and described in Chapter II — and summarized below — under nine topical headings, each corresponding to one of nine functional categories: (1) National Security. (2) Space. (3) Health. (4) Energy, (5) Natural Resources, (6) Environment, (7) Transporta- tion, (8) Agriculture, and (9) Education. IX Generic Policy Issues* MAINTENANCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BASE The ability of American science and technology to sustain their record of achievement will depend on maintaining and developing the superlative infrastructure established with public and private support since World War 11. Retro- spective indicators demonstrate convincingly that the United States has maintained its preeminence in scientific research during the past 5 years. But signs of stress, including resource constraints, demographic trends af- fecting higher education, escalating instrumentation costs, and pressures for short-term returns on research investments, may well become more pronounced during the next 5 years. With respect to technology, the United States is no longer the undisputed world leader, as it was a decade ago, in such basic areas as automotive design, consumer electronics, scientific instrumentation, steel- making, ship construction, and rail transportation, in part because Japan and Western Europe have reestablished the intellectual and productive capacities that were destroyed by World War II. It is losing its lead in several key defense-related technologies. As yet there is no evidence of any diminution in the inventive capacity of American scientists and engineers; rather, many perceive a failure in following up and implementing their innovations. Yet the above noted stresses, if they do not abate, could seriously erode the science and technology base and therefore its innovative capacity (pp. 2-3). FINANCIAL RESOURCES Total (civilian and military) national investments in re- search and development (R&D) in the United States are greater than in France, West Germany, and Japan com- bined. The ratio of total annual national investments in R&D to Gross National Product (GNP) declined in the United States since 1967, but it is still higher than in all other countries, with the possible exception of the Soviet Union. The U.S. civilian R&D per GNP ratio has plateaued at about the same level as in the United King- dom and France, but considerably below that of West Germany and Japan. Moreover, R&D investments in those two countries are more sharply concentrated in areas related to economic growth than is true in the United States (pp. 3^). During 1981, total national expenditures for all R&D activities in the United States were estimated to be $69.1 billion, with the Federal and industrial shares estimated at *Pagc numbers in parentheses refer to detailed discus.sions in the body of the Five-Year Outlook. 47 percent and 49 percent, respectively. Of the Federal expenditures, approximately one half were allocated to national security. National expenditures for basic research during 1981 were estimated to be $8.8 billion, with the respective Federal and industrial shares estimated at 68 and 16 percent (p. 3). Financial resources in the private sector for conducting R&D are likely to remain constrained during the next 5 years, although improved economic conditions are ex- pected to increase prospects for private sector invest- ments. Thus, there are likely to be continuing incentives for structural changes that might facilitate research, in- cluding greater use of centralized facilities and coopera- tive projects between university and industrial laborato- ries. Cooperation among government, universities, and industry in several defense-related areas of basic science and engineering will likely increase (pp. 10-12). HUMAN RESOURCES If present undergraduate enrollment trends persist, there should continue to be enough new graduates in most broad fields of science and technology to satisfy anticipated demands through the decade. However, spot shortages do exist in certain subspecialties, and others may develop. The greatest problems at present appear related to engi- neers and computer scientists. University faculties, the armed services, and, in some critical fields, private indus- try are likely to continue to experience difficulties in recruiting and retaining qualified engineers and computer scientists, particularly persons with advanced degrees (pp. 7-8). UNIVERSITY RESEARCH At present, universities and colleges and organizations associated with or administered by universities conduct about 10 percent of all the R&D in the United States and about 50 percent of all the basic research. Universities are likely to continue to experience problems related to the costs of carrying out their activities and the decreasing college age population from which undergraduate and graduate students are drawn. Instrumentation obsoles- cence in such equipment-intensive fields as physics, chemistry, computer science, and the various fields of engineering is likely to continue as a serious problem. Openings for new Ph.D's in many university science departments are likely to remain scarce into the next decade (pp. 8-10). The numbers of Ph.D's awarded in engineering and computer science have been decreasing since the eariy 1970s. In contrast, and unlike the situation in most scien- tific disciplines, undergraduate enrollments in engineer- ing and computer science have been increasing, and ap- plications for admission to programs in those fields are projected to increase. However, unless current faculty recruitment problems are resolved, university engineer- ing and computer science departments may not be able to maintain enrollments at a level sufficient to continue to meet anticipated demand at the bachelor's degree level. In addition, the lack of sufficient numbers of qualified fac- ulty members, coupled with the growing obsolescence of instruments and facilities, could have a negative effect on basic engineering research in the country (pp. 8-10). A similar problem appears to be developing in medical science as a diminishing proportion of young physicians opt for careers in research and teaching. That trend has akeady led to vacancies on several medical school fac- ulties (p. 49). INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH Approximately 70 percent of all R&D in the United States is conducted by private industry. During the next 5 years a good deal of industrial research is expected to focus on improving energy efficiency in processing and on increas- ing productivity through automation, with the relative importance of those concerns differing among industries and among firms within industries (pp. 10-12). Since the mid-1960s there has been a shift away from investments in long-range research in several key U.S. industries, a factor that may have contributed to the ero- sion of U.S. leadership in certain technological areas. Industrial investments in long-range exploratory research during the next 5 years will almost certainly depend heavily on the severity of foreign competition, the general economic situation, and the likelihood that the legal and regulatory climate will not unduly impede the commer- cialization of results of R&D activities. Changes in U.S. tax laws during 1981 were designed in part to stimulate increased industrial investments in long-range R&D. In- dustrial laboratories are also likely to seek to strengthen their links to other components of the U.S. research system, particularly universities (pp. 10-12). CONTRIBUTIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO INDUSTRIAL INNOVATION, PRODUCTIVITY, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH During the 1970s, the growth rate of American industrial productivity lagged behind that of other industrialized countries, including France, West Germany, and Japan. In addition, the rate of industrial innovation in the United States also appears to have lagged relative to those coun- tries. Total industrial R&D investments in those countries are also increasing faster than in the United States. CONTRIBUTIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY A number of factors influence industrial innovation, pro- ductivity, and economic growth. Research and develop- ment activities are among the more important, since they underlie the innovation process and provide many of the tools needed for increasing productivity. Productivity growth also appears to be related to long-term investments in basic research; American industries with high ratios of R&D investments to sales have consistently experienced substantially higher productivity growth rates than other industries. There is no evidence of any diminution in the innovative capacity of U.S. scientists and engineers. Rather, low rates of productivity growth in some indus- tries may derive from a failure to make sufficient use of R&D results (pp. 12-16). Productivity can also be improved by incorporating existing innovations into industrial processes and through the successful application of organizational behavior data, as Japan has demonstrated in the automotive and consum- er electronics industries. Additionally, technological in- novations based on the results of R&D activities can lead to improvements in the quality as opposed to the quantity of goods and services, although such qualitative improve- ments are not easily translated into measures of productiv- ity changes (pp. 12-16). INDUSTRIAL R&D INVESTMENTS While total real dollar outlays for R&D by private industry have increased substantially since 1975, there has also been a marked shift away from long-term exploratory research toward short-term problem solving in several key industries. Factors beyond the control of industry can discourage long-term R&D investments. They include generally high inflation and interest rates, escalating ener- gy costs. Federal tax and patent policies, and Federal regulations that encourage short-term defensive research and lead to uncertainties about the future marketability of R&D results (pp. 13-15). The shift away from long-term investments and the failure to capitalize on existing innovations in some indus- tries may also be related to internal management prac- tices, to recruitment procedures that select managers on the basis of business skills rather than technical com- prehension, and to a reward system that emphasizes real- izing short-term profits rather than investing in long-range innovative potential (p. 15). THE FEDERAL ROLE During the next 5 years, the Federal Government is ex- pected to focus on indirect means of encouraging private industry to increase its long-term research investments and on improving the climate for commercializing the results of its R&D activities. In addition to improving the XI overall economic climate, the 1981 Economic Tax Recov- ery Act included R&D tax credits, accelerated deprecia- tion schedules, and other incentives to stimulate addi- tional corporate R&D investments. More favorable patent and antitrust policies, as well as removal of disincentives in the form of excessive Federal regulations are also likely to stimulate such investments. Many believe that the appropriate Federal role is to support only long-range, high-risk research with a potentially high payoff. Thus, the Reagan Administration is not expected to support R&D programs of an economic subsidy nature except in areas such as defense and space where Government is the sole or primary consumer (pp. 16, 17). INDUSTRY-UNIVERSITY COOPERATION Increased university-industry cooperation appears to be an important element in strengthening this country's R&D enterprise. Such cooperation can take a number of forms, including contracted research, jointly owned and operated research facilities, and university-based industrial in- stitutes. Cooperation offers industry additional access to long-range exploratory research programs as a source of ideas, knowledge, and basic technologies for future inno- vation. It provides universities with additional sources of research support and gives university faculties and stu- dents access to industrial research facilities and a more realistic understanding of both the needs of industry and available industrial research opportunities. The trend toward greater research cooperation between industry and universities appears to be largely independent of direct Federal intervention. Anticipated increases in university- industry cooperative research during the next 5 years should provide data on the effectiveness of various coop- erative modes and on the need for catalytic Federal sup- port (p. 17). THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT OF U.S. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY During the next 5 years, trends and events abroad, par- ticularly in Western Europe, Japan, and the U.S.S.R., will affect U.S. relations with those countries, the con- duct of American science and technology, and the rela- tionships of science and technology to U.S. domestic concerns. The Federal Government is likely to continue to support international collaborative efforts in science and technology when such collaborations are clearly in the national interest. Issues associated with international re- source management and the global environment will per- sist on the U.S. domestic agenda, as will the perennial problem of how best to use science and technology to help resolve problems related to poverty throughout the world (p. 18). INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION The industrialized democracies, particularly the Western European nations, share many concerns about likely effects of financial and human resource constraints on the conduct of science and technology. Thus, incentives for cooperative international science and technology pro- grams, particularly large, expensive programs of mutual interest and benefit in such areas as space and high-energy physics that are unlikely to provide any single country with a short-term competitive edge, may well increase. Such cooperation is expected to continue under the aus- pices of official bilateral and multilateral government agreements, through multinational corporations, and through private arrangements between individuals, re- search organizations, and business firms (pp. 18-20). INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION Domestic policies affecting R&D can have serious im- pacts on U . S . competitiveness abroad. For example , since regulatory policies among the industrialized democracies vary, such American industries as the pharmaceutical industry may be at a disadvantage compared to their foreign competitors. The effects of regulations on interna- tional technology competition need continuing examina- tion, on a case-by-case basis, during the next 5 years. Possible effects on U.S. industry of additional tariff barri- ers or additional high-technology export limitations also need to be examined closely, particularly in view of the vital contributions that R&D-intensive industries are making to the U.S. balance of payments (pp. 18-20). SOVIET CAPABILITIES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY The U.S.S.R. appears to invest a larger fraction of its Gross National Product in R&D and has a higher propor- tion of its labor force engaged in R&D activities than any other nation. Soviet scientists have made impressive con- tributions in several disciplines, and the country has made significant strides in applying R&D in nuclear energy development, civil and military space activities, and na- tional defense. However, the Soviet Union has thus far failed to use its massive R&D investments for fostering innovations in manufacturing industries and for economic growth. Improvements in the productivity of the Soviet labor force have fallen sharply in recent years. The Soviet leadership appears to recognize that with labor, energy, and capital constraints becoming more severe, the coun- try's productivity will have to improve rapidly to meet even its modest economic growth targets; however, Soviet leaders appear unwilling to take the necessary steps to improve productivity. The centrally planned nature of the Soviet economy, the rigid institutional barriers that exist between the R&D and the industrial sectors, and the xii absence of any strong economic driving force may be difficult obstacles to overcome in stimulating innovation and economic growth (pp. 20-21). The appropriate degree and form of science and tech- nology cooperation with the U.S.S.R. depends on many factors. The political climate between the United States and the Soviet Union plays a large role in determining the volume of these exchanges, as does the willingness of the Soviets to provide access to their best scientists and facili- ties. Many U.S. scientists have decided to boycott ex- changes with the Soviets over the treatment of their fellow scientists, such as Sakharov, Orlov, and Brailovsky, in the Soviet Union. Past governmental bilateral scientific ex- changes have provided the United States with a window into Soviet science, even though the Soviet scientists probably gained more in a scientific sense than their American counterparts. The efficacy of controls on the exports of nonmilitary technologies is also a difficult issue, in part because of the difficulty of prohibiting or limiting access to a good deal of widely available scientific and technical information (p. 21). RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Ensuring the availability of oil and other critical raw materials, including metals and certain specialized woods, will continue to be a central problem for all industrialized nations. With the industrialization of sev- eral middle-tier countries, it is likely to become a more difficult problem internationally. Thus, there are likely to be increasing incentives for cooperative efforts to apply science and technology to improve mineral resources exploration, recovery, processing, and recycling tech- niques as well as the development of substitute materials. Cooperative efforts to improve management of the world's tropical forests and prevent or reverse desertification of arid lands can provide both short- and long-term benefits for the United States. Assessments of the causes and probable long-term effects of pollution in the oceans and of increasing tluorocarbon and carbon dioxide con- centrations in the atmosphere will also require continuing attention (pp. 21-22). PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Three related problems will continue to constrain eco- nomic development in many less developed countries: population growth, increasing food supply pressures, and escalating world demand for petroleum. At least until the middle of the next century, those problems are likely to be regional rather than global because they will fall more heavily on the poorer countries rather than threatening the carrying capacity of the entire world. Most analysts agree that the United States cannot continue indefinitely to bear the major burden of food production for the world, and that, therefore, agricultural productivity in the less de- veloped countries needs to be increased (pp. 23-24). One of the most effective ways in which individuals and institutions in industrialized countries can help the less developed countries realize their long-range development objectives is to continue to assist them in building their own indigenous science and technology capabilities. President Reagan recognized the effectiveness of this mode of cooperation in his pledge to devote greater amounts of scientific and technical know-how to third world problems. Such indigenous capabilities are essen- tial for devising new technologies or adapting existing technologies to local needs, for weighing alternatives among available foreign technologies, and for assessing probable impacts of different options for technological development (pp. 24-25). SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY, AND POLICYMAKING The sheer amount of information, including scientific information, available to assist in policymaking processes will continue to grow during the next 5 years, as will the capabilities for handling, manipulating, communicating, and retrieving it. For those reasons, the problems of how to gain ready access to usable data that already exist are likely to become more serious concerns in both the public and the private sectors (pp. 25-26). METHODOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENTS IN GATHERING AND INTERPRETING DATA The power of scientific information to help define and illuminate policy problems and assess the impacts of policy decisions has been enhanced considerably through the use of conceptual and analytical tools developed by various scientific disciplines. Methodological improve- ments are expected to strengthen the reliability of survey results concerned with the characteristics, actions, and opinions of large groups, as well as the validity of demo- graphic projections and certain types of economic projec- tions. Improved methodologies should also permit better interpretation of the data bases that have been gathered systematically for the past 20 years about the current and changing status of various institutions, including indus- trial firms, educational institutions, scientific organiza- tions, and government at all levels (pp. 26-27). SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION AND THE REGULATORY PROCESS During the next 5 years both the public and private sectors will probably make considerable use of scientific informa- tion in assessing risks to health, safety, and the environ- ment. A February 17. 1981, Executive Order of the Presi- xui dent requires that Federal regulations of hazardous technologies be justified by weighing the costs and bene- fits of the technologies themselves and of the proposed regulations. Estimating levels of possible damage from a particular pollutant or contaminant can be greatly facili- tated by a detailed understanding of fundamental physi- cal, chemical, biological, and physiological processes, a fact arguing in favor of wide-ranging, sustained basic research (pp. 27-28). Additionally, a good deal of attention is likely to be directed to the uses and limitations of formal risk assess- ment and cost-benefit analyses and other analytical tools for assessing risks and for weighing risks, costs, and benefits. A particular need is to expand these meth- odologies to permit comparison of the costs, risks, and benefits associated with entire alternative classes of prod- ucts or processes — for example, comparison of large- scale coal and nuclear fission systems (pp. 28-29). Functional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints NATIONAL SECURITY Federal outlays for defense-related R&D are expected to continue to increase. The objectives are to develop specif- ic defense-related technologies and to maintain long- range private sector capabilities in such basic science and engineering fields as electronics and materials with the hope that they will lead to long-term payoffs in national defense applications (pp. 31-32). ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS AND APPLICATIONS The Very High Speed Integrated Circuits Program of the Department of Defense (DOD) aims to accelerate de- velopment of electronic microcircuit technology and en- sure the industrial capability for developing the elec- tronics required in the next generation of computers, missiles, radar, and intelligence processing centers. The Defense Department's Ultrasmall Electronics Research Program supports research aimed at revolutionary changes in microelectronics in the next 10 to 20 years that will depend on entirely new concepts and materials (pp. 32-33). Research in artificial intelligence is scheduled to inten- sify during the next 5 years, the objective being to estab- lish the basis for intelligent military systems that will provide new capabilities and ease future personnel needs. The use of robots in Department of Defense systems manufacturing is likely to increase along with their use in industry. For the longer term, robots will be developed for field use to assist combat and support forces (p. 34). Strategic command, control, and communications sys- tems must be able to survive in combat and be highly dependable as the link between the command structure, strategic reserve forces, and troops in the field. Advanced packet communications technologies and a powerful ex- perimental internetwork are being developed to provide local, regional, and long-band computer communications via ground radio transmission, terrestrial circuits, and satellites. The technology for securing classified informa- tion processed or stored in computer and communication networks is also being developed (p. 34). MATERIALS SCIENCE ' The availability of stronger, lighter, and more heat-resist- ant materials is critical to the future development of mili- tary aircraft, spacecraft, and ballistic missiles, as well as to many parts of the civilian economy. Research and development that can lead to wider uses of carbon-carbon composite and metal-matrix composite materials show considerable promise. Both of those advanced types of materials have the potential to replace presently used alloys based on strategic metals that the United States must import. Research and development in rapid solid- ification technology will be vigorously pursued during the next 5 years, with the objective of producing very high quality starting materials for new families of aluminum and titanium alloys and superalloys (pp. 34—35). AERONAUTICS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT The integration of advanced electronics and materials technologies is leading to significant improvements in the combat capability of tactical aircraft. New control con- cepts also provide capabilities to increase the survivability of air-to-ground weapons against ground defenses. A ma- jor effort is being made in DOD's advanced turbine engine gas generator program to increase structural testing of promising new turbine engine concepts to provide a base for better implementation of advanced technologies. That effort derives from the need to decrease the cost of propul- sion systems by placing greater emphasis on durability and reliability during the research, development, and initial testing stages (pp. 35-36). xiv SPACE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY Advances in laser technology create opportunities for high-energy laser weapons for use in space. Progress has been made toward establishing the technology base for chemical laser weapons, and unconventional laser con- cepts that equal or exceed the performance of existing devices are being developed (p. 36). An advanced-test, high-energy electron accelerator, to be completed in 1982, will provide scientific data on the feasibility of propagating stable, high-power, high-energy electrons in the atmosphere over distances of military interest (p. 36). NUCLEAR TEST VERIFICATION TECHNOLOGY Research to provide a wider range of sensor options for the detection and identification of nuclear tests will be pur- sued. A marine seismic system demonstration program should significantly enhance global monitoring ca- pabilities of underground and underwater nuclear tests. By the end of 1983, the program should demonstrate the feasibility of installing and operating the most advanced type of seismic detector in a borehole in the deep ocean floor (pp. 36-37). usefulness of space flight. The 1970s were a period of consolidation and assessment of the most fruitful direc- tions for future research and application. Space activities in the 1980s are expected to be characterized by more international cooperation and competition and to be more sophisticated in technology, with results valuable for both commercial and military applications (pp. 38-39). THE SPACE SHUTTLE Two successful test flights of the Space Shuttle in 1981 opened a new phase in the exploration and uses of space for scientific, commercial, and military purposes. The Shuttle is heavily booked for its early years of operation. Technologies under development aim to increase its pay load and stay-time capacities. Planning aimed at im- plementing the full Space Transportation System is being pursued. That system consists of the Shuttle, the Euro- pean-developed Spacelab, and upper stages for boosting payloads from the Shuttle's low-Earth orbit to higher orbits. The Shuttle is expected to offer unique oppor- tunities for infrared and optical solar astronomy and. by deploying the Space Telescope, will greatly extend our view into the universe, (pp. 39-41). HUMAN RESOURCES The armed services are likely to continue to experience serious problems in recruiting and retaining sufficient numbers of qualified engineers for their advanced re- search and development programs. Since several of those programs involve cooperation with university research laboratories, faculty recruitment and retention problems in engineering schools are also a serious concern (p. 37). The Department of Defense is pursuing research in several behavioral science fields to make more effective use of its personnel at all levels. Priority programs aim both at the development of computer-based instruction and training systems and at a better understanding of the interactions between humans and the complex, automated systems that underlie present and future defense ca- pabilities (pp. 37-38). SPACE Space has been referred to as the new, limitless ocean. Given the historic impulse to explore, understand, and control uncharted regions, there is no doubt that humans will seek to master space. To ensure that the U.S. space program comprises a logical, efficient, cost-effective se- quence of activities, space planning needs to be carried out with a very long range time perspective. During the 1960s, the U.S. space program concentrated on demon- strating both the technological feasibility and the potential REMOTE SENSING AND COMMUNICATIONS During the next 5 years, increased use is likely to be made of remote sensing and communications satellites. The anticipated transition of the experimental Landsat system to full operational use during the decade emphasizes the desirability of resolving a host of institutional issues at the local, State, Federal, and international levels. High pri- ority should be given to reducing the cost of data handling from remote sensing and communications satellites and to encouraging greater participation by the private sector and by State and local governments (pp. 41^2). INTERNATIONAL ISSUES Space offers an attractive arena for international coopera- tion. At present, 10 European countries under the man- agement of the European Space Agency are developing Spacelab, which will be an integral component of the Space Transportation System, and there could be some continuing cooperation with the Soviet Union in the life sciences during the next 5 years. International competi- tion in civil space applications could also intensify. Ariane. a predominantly French rocket, has, for example, been billed as a potential alternative to the Shuttle for delivering satellites into orbit (p. 42). Several less developed countries have profited from U.S. communications and remote sensing satellite sys- tems. However, the existence of those systems has also led to demands for a "new information order" that could place severe limitations on transborder information flow. XV Additionally, some middle-tier countries are concerned that the rapid deployment of communications satellites into geosynchronous orbits will preempt them from im- plementing their own research systems. Technologies now being developed for handling increasingly higher data transmission rates to and from communications satel- lites and for broadening the communications frequency band should partially allay such concerns (pp. 42-43). HEALTH There are many indications that advances in, and applica- tions of, biomedical science will continue to contribute substantially to improvements in the overall health of Americans. Genetic recombinant techniques are facilitat- ing the development of a variety of pharmaceutical sub- stances, including new and more effective vaccines and drugs. In the future, the use of these technologies could help control genetic disorders. Advances in the neuro- sciences, leading to a deeper understanding of the func- tioning of the brain, could result in substantial progress in the field of mental health. Increased attention to the pre- vention and cure of tropical diseases will benefit millions of people in developing countries as well as American military personnel stationed abroad (pp. 43^14). PREVENTION OF MAJOR DISEASES Death rates from cardiovascular diseases have fallen by more than 30 percent since 1950, due, in part, to the use of more effective drugs and procedures for repairing the heart and blood vessels. The rate of successful treatment of certain cancers also continues to improve. Scientific knowledge of behavioral and environmental risk factors and broadened public awareness of the links between those factors and disease promise substantially reduced incidence of both disorders. However, improvements in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and several other major illnesses will depend upon the collec- tion and analysis of detailed data about specific causal relationships between most major risk factors and major illnesses. Accordingly, there is a high priority need to integrate information about the interplay between be- havior, pathological processes, and bodily dysfunction to provide a basis for developing more effective treatment and prevention techniques. In the interim, a variety of approaches are possible to motivate individuals to take more responsibility for their own health by altering their behavior patterns (pp. 44-45). PROBLEMS OF THE AGED By the year 2000, the number of Americans over age 65 is projected to increase by nearly 50 percent. Thus, there is an increasing focus on the problem of how to deal with and take greater advantage of the potential of the aged U.S. population. The number of women over 65 is in- creasing more rapidly than the number of men. Under present conditions, for example, a newborn American female can expect to live 9 years longer than a newborn male. Although some progress has been made — and more is anticipated — in treating such disorders as arthritis, se- nile dementias, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases, there is still a relative lack of knowledge about the true functional capacity of the aged and their health care needs. Thus, the potential exists for a considerable im- provement in the quality and productiveness of the lives of that population. Two health-related areas requiring par- ticular research attention are the effects of drug metabo- lism and drug interactions in the elderly, and the debilitat- ing effects of social stresses to which the elderly are subjected, including nursing practices and changes in family and economic circumstances. Additionally, health care and social service strategies need to be devised to maximize the functional and social independence of the aged (pp. 45-46). ADDICTIVE BEHAVIOR Alcoholism, drug abuse, and cigarette smoking continue to be major individual, societal, and economic problems. Ongoing research has provided considerable information about the physiological and psychological causes of ad- diction to cigarettes and marijuana. Research on genetic predispositions and other biomedical factors may offer the first real prospects for advancing knowledge about the causes of alcoholism. Ultimately, the results of those research efforts should lead to improved prevention and treatment strategies, although the effective incorporation of innovative behavioral approaches into such strategies may well require more systematic cooperation between biomedical and behavioral scientists (pp. 46-47). ASSESSMENT AND DISSEMINATION OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Rapidly escalating health care costs increasingly threaten to constrain the application of advances in biomedical science and, more particulariy, biomedical technology. Many new technologies are simply not cost-effective. Hence, we can expect more widespread use of risk-cost- benefit analyses and technology assessments, involving the participation of a broad range of health care special- ists, to evaluate the efficacy and possible hazards of medi- cal technologies. Such evaluations will inevitably involve difficult equity questions about the appropriate distribu- tion of health care and the ethical dilemmas associated with the value of human life (pp. 47-48). The effectiveness of programs to disseminate both bio- medical research results and assessments of the efficacy of XVI new technologies to the health care community deserves careful study. By accelerating the incorporation of prom- ising cost-effective biomedical science and technology into the health care system, these types of programs can help ensure a better return on Federal investments in biomedical research (p. 48). REGULATION OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY There is widespread concern that Federal regulations de- signed to protect medical patients and subjects of research may pose a significant constraint on the implementation of advances in biomedical science and technologies. For this reason, regulatory procedures to protect human subjects of biomedical research are normally administered by local committees of physicians, other health care personnel, and lay persons. The regulations are being substantially revised so that they can provide adequate safeguards for research subjects without unduly inhibiting the research process. Federal regulations associated with testing and assessing new drugs and new medical technologies are subject to intense controversy. Steps are being taken to assure that anticipated compliance costs and regulatory uncertainties do not seriously inhibit the development of many promising new drugs and technologies (p. 49). HUMAN RESOURCES While the pressure for admission to medical schools con- tinues unabated, the perennial problem of the geograph- ical distribution of physicians remains. There has also been a diminution in the number of young physicians entering academic medicine, as evidenced, for example, by vacancies on medical school faculties. Continuation of that trend could seriously inhibit further advances in bio- medical research and in incorporating the results of that research into the U.S. health care system (p. 49). ENERGY The Administration's energy policy is an integral part of the President's comprehensive Program for Economic Re- covery and is based on the assumption that, with regard to the development of energy sources, the collective judg- ment of the market is generally superior to centralized programming. The Federal Government will continue to invest in long-term, energy-related research with high risks and potentially high payoffs. However, it will no longer assume responsibility for accelerating the develop- ment of advanced energy technologies, nor will public funds be used to subsidize domestic energy production or conservation (p. 50). The power of the free market in alleviating short-term energy shortages is suggested by the moderated growth of energy consumption in the United States, and especially in oil and transportation fuels use, that has resulted from higher prices. Energy demand growth through 1990 is now projected to be slightly more than 1 percent per year, well below the 2 percent forecast of 1979. The mix of energy sources the United States will use in the near and more distant future will depend on domestic and interna- tional demand for available fossil fuels and relative prices of various alternatives (pp. 50-52). MAINTAINING PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES Until industry develops and commercializes competitive alternative fuel sources to supplement declining domestic oil and gas reserves, vigorous pursuit by the private sector of technologies to facilitate the exploration and develop- ment of new domestic reserves and to enhance the recov- ery of oil from existing wells is anticipated. Administra- tion actions to decontrol oil prices and to stimulate the investment climate through regulatory and tax reform should provide the necessary market conditions for these activities. Any undiscovered oil fields in the United States are likely to be in locations with harsh environments that will make exploration and commercial development diffi- cult and expensive. Industry is expected to improve tech- nologies for offshore exploration and drilling operations during the next 5 years. Additionally, field tests, sup- ported by laboratory investigations, are likely to be car- ried out to improve techniques for enhanced recovery of petroleum from known domestic sources (p. 52). The prospects for discovering new domestic reserves and exploiting known, unconventional sources of natural gas are considered good. Since domestic natural gas sup- plies are unlikely to be depleted as rapidly as domestic petroleum, gas could serve as a substitute for petroleum in some applications (p. 52). UNCONVENTIONAL SOURCES OF OIL Vast deposits of such unconventional and ultimately more costly fuel sources as heavy oils, tar sands, and shale exist in several countries, including the United States and Can- ada. They might be exploited if economic conditions become favorable. Plans to proceed with commercial mining and production of fuel from oil shale in the Rocky Mountains have been announced, and future production efficiencies that will reduce environmental problems and use water more efficiently than at present seem possible (pp. 52-53). xvn SYNTHETIC FUELS NUCLEAR FISSION Commercially demonstrated processes are now available for producing usable synthetic gases from coal, and proc- esses with improved efficiency, reliability, and environ- mental acceptability should be demonstrated in the next 5 years. Private industry has made substantial investments in the development of synthetic fuels technologies. Large pilot plant programs for the direct liquefaction of coal are under way, and these programs could lead to commer- cially feasible processes by the end of the decade (pp. 54-55). Probably the greatest need in synthetic fuels science and technology during the next 5 years is for basic science and engineering studies to learn more about different possible production processes and fuel uses. Such studies should lead to improved efficiency and reliability in sec- ond- and third-generation commercial plants and to mini- mized environmental problems (pp. 54-55). Fermentation of grains to produce alcohol is an estab- lished commercial technology. Results of research and development that could lead to the commercial production of alcohol and synthetic gas through fermentation of grains and other biomass forms are promising. A better understanding of plant genetics could serve as a basis for the biological engineering of plants and could greatly enhance the potential of biomass as a significant long- term energy option (p. 58). DIRECT COMBUSTION OF COAL Coal use is expected to increase throughout the decade. A number of utilities and a few large industries are already converting from oil to coal or natural gas, and a good deal of attention is being paid to possible commercial systems that would allow the cost-effective use of coal instead of oil in small manufacturing plants. The introduction of new mining technologies should improve the efficiency of coal extraction and reduce the health and safety hazards associ- ated with mining. Increased direct use of coal as a fuel will be facilitated by systems, some of them near commercial- ization, that reduce the emission of oxides of sulfur and nitrogen. Research on coal combustion processes is ex- pected to lead to further improvements in such advanced systems (pp. 53-54). Increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon di- oxide may ultimately limit the amounts of fossil fuels, including coal and synthetic fuels, that can be burned. A high-priority need in the next 5 years is to learn enough about the details of the global carbon dioxide problem to provide a basis for assessing probable long-term limits on coal use (pp. 53, 55). Research and development aimed at improving the effi- ciency and safety of light water nuclear reactors is ex- pected to intensify during the next 5 years. Science and engineering studies will be focused on an advanced reac- tor that could be operated in a converter mode fueled with a uranium-thorium mixture. Such a reactor could serve as a source of industrial process heat as well as electricity. Broadly based research and development efforts will be pursued that would permit the selection of an appropriate breeder reactor system for possible deployment by the end of the century. Since the 1977 moratorium on commercial reprocessing and recycling of fuel has been lifted, these reactors, which could use domestic uranium and thorium with 100 times the efficiency of present light water reac- tors, may now be a more realizable option. Additionally, the existence of reprocessing capabilities could simplify the technical problem of permanent nuclear waste dis- posal. Reprocessing and recycling are presently being pursued in Europe and Japan. France plans to demonstrate a large commercial breeder reactor during 1983 and has also completed a 2-year waste disposal pilot test (pp. 55-57). DIRECT SOLAR CONVERSION Federal tax credits have helped increase the Nation's use of solar energy for space heating. A variety of tech- nologies for harnessing solar energy for other applications are under development. Photovoltaic systems that convert light directly into electricity with better than 11 percent efficiency are at the research stage. Cost reductions, however, may require radically new approaches using advanced semiconductor materials. The introduction of large, automated facilities should also reduce the cost of commercial production (pp. 57-58). FUSION RESEARCH The scientific feasibility of producing fusion power by the magnetic confinement method is scheduled to be demon- strated during the next 5 years at test facilities nearing completion, but formidable technical problems remain to be solved if a commercial-size system is to be demon- strated by the end of the century. Development of the inertial fusion method is essential for addressing nuclear weapons design problems. The country's leading inertial research facility is scheduled to demonstrate the scientific feasibility of that method in 1983 (pp. 58-59). ENERGY END-USE EFHCIENCY Increased energy use efficiencies will continue to strengthen national efforts to ameliorate the near-term energy problem. Considerable savings are anticipated as increasing fuel prices lead manufacturing industries to replace existing capital equipment with more energy- efficient stock, introduce more energy-efficient proc- esses, and make better use of industrial wastes (p. 59). NATURAL RESOURCES Continued increases in the world's population, coupled with rapid industrialization in many middle-tier countries, are likely to exert increasing pressures on the world's natural resource base. Global trends affecting the price of strategic metals could also affect their availability to the U.S. economy. Seasonal water shortages are becoming common in some areas of the country. Desertification of arid lands is a severe problem worldwide and is serious in some areas of the United States. The long-range effects of many resource constramt problems, both in the United States and globally, will depend critically on advances in science and technology and on the implementation of those advances (pp. 60-61). NONFUEL MINERALS There will be a continuing need for long-range efforts to ensure the availability of nonfuel minerals vital to the domestic economy, including several metals whose easily accessible, high-grade ores have largely been mined al- ready in this country. The development of new and more sensitive instruments to detect anomalous concentrations of minerals in the Earth's crust, coupled with a deeper understanding of fundamental mineral formation proc- esses, would increase the probability of locating new mineral reserves in the United States. Additional reserves of certain critical metals exist in the deep ocean floor, although the technology for extracting them requires fur- ther development. Promising advanced mining and hand- ling technologies and more energy-efficient processes for the primary conversion of mineral ores into metals could improve the international competitive position of the U.S. minerals production and processing sector The develop- ment of advanced alternative materials that could be sub- stituted for scarce imported metals is being pressed by the U.S. defense and space R&D programs and shows con- siderable promise for the civilian economy as well (pp. 61-62). WATER SUPPLIES Seasonal water shortages are common in 20 percent of the 106 U.S. watersheds, and that percentage could double by the end of the century. Water shortages are being exacer- bated in the Western States by population shifts and the development of new energy industries. A major program to identify and exploit additional ground water has been initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and technologies for decreasing industrial, agricultural, and urban water use have already aided conservation efforts. Demonstra- tion plants for converting seawater and brackish water to useful quality are under construction, although present processes are both expensive and highly energy ineffi- cient. Results of ongoing research aimed at developing less water intensive crops and crops that can grow in highly saline water show considerable promise as a means for reducing water consumption in agriculture (pp. 62-63). DESERTIFICATION OF ARID LANDS The sustained decline of the productivity of the world's arid lands is projected to increase by another 20 percent by the end of the century. Agricultural productivity in the United States is also being affected by desertification, although the increased use of chemical fertilizers, water, and herbicides and pesticides has compensated somewhat for declining soil conditions. Research and development on salt-tolerant crops and vegetation, development of economic uses for naturally occurring arid land plants, rehabilitation of degraded lands, introduction of opera- tional desertification monitoring techniques, and im- proved management of surface- and ground-water reser- voirs can further alleviate desertification effects (p. 64). DISAPPEARANCE OF TROPICAL FORESTS The rapid disappearance of the world's tropical forests is leading to severe and far-reaching ecological problems. In the less developed countries, where most tropical forests are located, the disappearance also means the loss of a widely used resource. The United States relies on tropical forests as a major source of specialty woods and phar- maceuticals. A coordinated international effort on tropi- cal forest research and management, greatly increased worldwide reforestation, and a detailed analysis of the political, economic, and social consequences of reforesta- tion are regarded as minimally necessary responses to the problem (p. 64). ENVIRONMENT Impressive gains in controlling pollution and upgrading the quality of the environment were made during the 1970s. However, the total costs of some of the Federal regulations designed to protect the environment and the ways they have been interpreted or enforced may out- weigh the intended benefits. Detailed scientific informa- xix tion on the occurrence and effects of various pollutants and on technical means for reducing or mitigating their occurrence and effects will continue to be needed. Addi- tionally, refinement of the analytical tools for weighing costs and benefits of alternative regulatory strategies will be required to implement the President's February 17, 1981, Executive Order requiring that all Federal environ- mental, health, and safety regulations be justified by assessing costs and benefits (p. 65). nonpoint sources , which account for more than half of the pollutants that enter U.S. waters, is a much more complex problem whose solution is not yet in sight. Additional research is needed on the environmental and health effects of potentially toxic water pollutants to rationalize existing effluent limitation regulations. Research aimed at im- proved techniques for monitoring water pollution levels and for reducing the costs of treating polluted water should also be pressed (pp. 67-68). AIR QUALITY There is a high-priority need for better information about the relationships between fossil fuel use, particularly coal combustion, and the long-term global climatic effects of increased carbon dioxide concentrations. That informa- tion will be vital for long-range energy planning. Some progress has been made in controlling the industrial emis- sions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides that can lead to acid precipitation. Continued efforts should be directed toward the identification, control, and monitoring of those emis- sions, and to their atmospheric transport mechanisms, chemical transformations, and environmental and health effects (pp. 65-66). Additionally, continued efforts should be focused on the occurrence, transport mechanisms, and health effects of atmospheric particulates, especially air- borne carcinogens (p. 68). TOXIC WASTES While several promising technologies for handling toxic substance spills are emerging, including dispersant agents and new bacterial substances used as cleanup agents, the development of more effective technologies to detect, contain, and mitigate the effects of oil and hazardous chemical spills is badly needed. Also needed are better means for transporting, storing, treating, and disposing of the 57 million metric tons of hazardous, nonnuclear wastes produced annually in the United States, and re- medial action at the country's 2,000 existing problem disposal sites is an obvious high priority. The hazardous waste disposal problem is being mitigated somewhat by processes that reduce the quantity of wastes at the point of origin and that remove or recover hazardous materials from waste streams during disposal operations (pp. 66-67). WATER QUALITY The technology-based uniform national standards ap- proach to controlling municipal and industrial water pol- lution is expected to achieve marked improvements in point source control, although additional information about the contamination of ground water from those and other sources is needed. The control of emissions fiom TRANSPORTATION During the next 20 years, per capita passenger transporta- tion capacity requirements in the United States are ex- pected to increase at an average rate of 2 percent per year and those for freight transportation at VA percent per year. While those growth rates are smaller than m the past quarter century, they are still substantial and will require the implementation of new technologies to mitigate a variety of constraints on the growth of the national trans- portation system (p. 69). CARRYING CAPACITIES The entire U.S. transportation system may begin to en- counter limits on its carrying capacity during the next 5 years. Such emerging technological developments as ramp metering signalization for highways could aid in reducing highway congestion and improving safety. Cur- rent developments in advanced air traffic control, which can automate decisionmaking, should help alleviate in- creasing limitations on airport capacity and improve the productivity of the U.S. commercial air transportation system (p. 69-70). The anticipated increase in the use of coal during the next decade will require a considerable expansion in the carrying capacity of western and eastern railroads if they are to serve as the primary distribution system for domes- tic coal. Slurry pipelines offer an attractive distribution alternative for distances up to 300 miles, and current research on the flow behavior of coal-water mixtures could lead to significant improvements in this coal trans- portation mode (pp. 69-70). ENERGY EFHCIENCY Because transportation accounts for 25 percent of U.S. energy consumption, anticipated future constraints on fuel availability will require increased efficiencies in that sector During the next 5 years, the greatest energy effi- ciency improvements are expected to occur in auto- mobiles and commercial aircraft. Conventional gasoline and diesel engines are expected to be more efficient by the XX end of the 1980s. Additionally, research is being directed toward several longer range developments, including al- ternatives to conventional engines that might provide still greater efficiencies; batteries that can store up to 10 times the energy of present lead-acid batteries and thereby provide a basis for increased use of electric vehicles; and the efficient use of alternative fuels produced from coal or biomass (p. 71). IMPROVEMENTS IN SAFETY The innovative use of radionavigation, radiolocation, ra- dio communication, and computer systems provides op- portunities for improving both the safety and the effi- ciency of air and water transportation . The convergence of computer and communications technologies also provides opportunities for transportation safety improvements through automation in such areas as mass transit and air traffic control (pp. 71-72). In highway traffic safety, most technological efforts to date have focused on postcrash survivability and injury reduction rather than on accident prevention. Such strategies will become more costly and less effective as the United States moves toward the in- creased use of smaller vehicles, suggesting that a large portion of future advances in automotive safety could come from improvements in driving habits, rather than from further technological refinements (p. 72). AGRICULTURE Each American farmer currently produces enough food for 60 people, a significant increase from 30 in 1970, and 7 in 1900. Agricultural products constitute over 20 percent of the total value of U.S. exports, and increases in the world's population are placing new demands on the U.S. food producing system. Yet the rate of increase in agri- cultural productivity has recently begun to slow both in the United States and elsewhere in the world. That trend emphasizes the need to apply advances in science and techology to ensure the continued availability of adequate input resources for agriculture — namely, water, land, and nutrients — and to increase product yields (pp. 72-73). INPUT RESOURCES Growing urbanization and industrialization in the United States and in much of the rest of the world has led to the use of less productive land for agriculture. But the use of less than prime land requires increased use of other input resources, including supplementary nutrients, water, and, particularly, labor In addition, less than prime land is often subject to more rapid degeneration and erosion. Experiments with multiple cropping, reduced tillage, re- cycling of agricultural wastes, organic farming, and other changes in cultivation practice have been somewhat suc- cessful as alternatives to the extensive use of costly syn- thetic fertilizers on less than prime land (p. 73). On the microlevel, the factors that determine the effi- ciency of nutrient intake processes in plants are just begin- ning to be understood. Research in progress could provide opportunities for the selective breeding of plants that can absorb and process much greater volumes of nutrients from the same basic source (p. 74). New irrigation techniques to improve the efficient use of water show considerable promise. The water avail- ability constraint on agriculture could also be mitigated in the long term by ongoing research aimed both at lowering the cost of desalination processes and at the development of plants that can be grown in high-saline or brackish water (pp. 73-74). INCREASING PRODUCT YIELDS While selective breeding of agriculturally useful plants is almost as old as human civilization, the current explosion in fundamental knowledge in molecular and developmen- tal biology and genetics, coupled with the development of such new manipulation techniques as recombinant DNA, offers the potential for deliberate engineering of species with a range of desirable characteristics. Advances in genetic engineering and embryology also promise to make substantial contributions to increasing the effective- ness of animal husbandry (pp. 74-75). The development of plants that can fix nitrogen from the atmosphere rather than having to rely on fertilizers in the soil, that can tolerate more highly saline water, or that are more resistant to pests and parasites shows considera- ble promise. Research that could yield synthetic versions of the growth regulators that determine the development time of plants is also receiving considerable attention. Such synthetic growth could be used to accelerate crop growth cycles (pp. 74—75). Genetic engineering tech- niques are being used to improve the ability of plants and animals to withstand environmental stresses (variations in rainfall, nutrient supply, and temperature), thereby ex- panding the range of lands where cultivation is possible (p. 75). Sophisticated analytical methods are also leading to an improved understanding of the nature of biological sus- ceptibility to disease and the spread of disease (p. 75). More broadly, there is a critical need to understand the systemic relationships of plants to their total environment. Advances in that understanding have led, for example, to the integrated pest management concept that relies on combining information about the biology of pests, the environment, and the host to obtain maximal results from the application of biological and chemical controls. A better understanding of such systemic relationships is also essential to the prevention of the spread of plant disease, since major epidemics are almost always the result of transferring plants from one biosystem to another. Im- proved knowledge about the relationships between plants and their total environment will also be needed to engineer plants that are better able to cope with effects of changes in atmospheric conditions, including pollution caused by acid rain (p. 75). EDUCATION Science and technology are intimately linked with educa- tion. The strength of a country's capabilities in science and technology is closely coupled with the quality of education, at all levels, in mathematics, science, and technology. In addition, science and technology offer powerful tools for use in the educational process. ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGIES Modem computer and communications technologies offer a wide range of possibilities for innovative instruction and evaluation, and thus for developing more flexible educa- tional strategies. The relatively low cost of sophisticated computers provides the potential for adapting curricula to different local conditions and for tailoring instruction and evaluation to the needs of individual students and teachers (pp. 77-78). There is as yet little evidence that the modem elec- tronics revolution has had much impact on the formal educational system. Rapid changes in the state of the art have been one inhibiting factor. The extensive use of advanced electronic technologies for training military per- sonnel and for continuing education in business and in- dustry may provide lessons and guidelines for the formal educational system. However, realizing the full potential of those technologies in the classroom would necessitate a considerable restmcturing by State and local authorities of educational strategies and methods, including considera- ble teacher training and retraining (pp. 78-79). INSIGHTS FROM COGNITIVE SCIENCES Current research in the cognitive sciences, particularly on the interactions of humans and machines and the acquisi- tion of cognitive skills, could be used to plan effective strategies for adapting modem electronic capabilities to classroom use. Research is also yielding insights on prob- lem-solving processes and on cognitive and social de- velopment in children. Those insights should find broad applicability in teaching, with or without electronic assis- tance. Again, current applications of cognitive science research in the military sphere could provide useful infor- mation for the formal education system (p. 79). EDUCATION IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Current and emerging problems associated with the sup- ply of and demand for qualified professional scientists and engineers are highlighted above (Generic Issues — Main- tenance and Development of the Science and Technology Base). The educational requirements of technicians who support the activities of scientists and engineers and of others whose jobs demand more familiarity with modem technology are also changing, as advances in technology increase the complexity of U.S. society. The intmsion of science and technology into virtually every sector of so- ciety suggests that a reasonable degree of science and technology literacy will be increasingly important in all phases of our lives (pp. 79-80). The primary and secondary school curricula of several industrialized countries, including West Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union, focus heavily on science and mathe- matics. In contrast, the trend in the United States during the past two decades has been a declining emphasis on those subjects. A significant reversal of that trend, which could have serious long-term consequences for the strength and vitality of the U.S. science and technology base, will require extensive cooperation between the sci- entific and engineering communities and the State and local authorities who have responsibility for precollege education in the United States (p. 80). xxii I Generic Policy Issues Associated with Science and Technology A. Introduction The support of scientific and technological progress has become a necessity for modem industrial societies. Al- though the proposition is sometimes disputed, most thoughtful analysts have concluded that world society has reached a stage where continuing and even accelerating progress in science and technology are necessary condi- tions for avoiding social, economic, and environmental regression in the future. This does not mean that science and technology are sufficient conditions. They must be used in a wise and foresighted manner, and that depends more on political and social arrangements than on science and technology themselves. However, the premise of this Five-Year Outlook is that scientific and technological progress and its wise exploitation are indispensable ad- juncts to modem society. Any assessment of the outlook for science and technol- ogy must recognize the interdependence of science, tech- nology, and society. Science is driven largely by its own internal imperatives, as dictated by the new opportunities and advances within the conceptual structure of the disci- plines. But to an important and increasing extent, science is also driven by society's search for solutions to some of its greatest problems and needs. Technology is the pri- mary link between the intemal and external determinants of scientific progress. Technological development incor- porates knowledge derived from science into usable proc- esses and products and, increasingly, scientific and tech- nological factors form a base for the development of public policies for enhancing the environment and the quality of life. Technological progress also stimulates further scientific advances both by defining new problems that can be illuminated by scientific research and by providing the requisite instruments and tools. As in the past, the state of the U.S. science and technology enter- prise during the next 5 years will be conditioned by trends in both the intemal and the external determinants of tech- nical progress and by the relationships between them. Several extemal factors help detemiine the pace and direction of advances in science and technology. The first. most direct and most easily quantifiable, are the input factors — primarily the human and financial resources available to the science and technology enterprise. Trends associated with those resources and their implications are treated in the next section of this chapter — Section B — under the heading, "Maintenance and Development of the Science and Technology Base." 1 2 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK The second, more qualitative, external factors derive from the expectation that science and technology should serve the public good. Effectively, those factors establish priorities. They include rules, regulations, and resource allocation policies and strategies, as well as exhortations, that (1) are intended to focus the capabilities of science and technology on either well-defined problems (such as producing more fuel-efficient vehicles) or broad social goals (such as more equitable health care among all seg- ments of the population), or (2) are designed to mitigate or eliminate present and future risks associated with prod- ucts and processes made possible by science and technol- ogy. The likely effects of some of those factors on research and development during the next 5 years are mentioned in Section B. Those factors also underlie a good deal of the material in Chapter 11. which focuses on the likely rela- tionships, during the next 5 years, of science and technol- ogy to broad areas of national and international concern. The third set of factors also derives from the expectation that science and technology can make significant contri- butions to society. They are not related, however, to spe- cific products and processes, but rather to linkages be- tween science and technology and other types of activity. As such, recognitionof their importance as external deter- minants of advances in science and technology is of rela- tively recent origin. Although scientific progress is ac- knowledged to be an indispensable condition for technological development and, by derivation, for social benefit, there is increasing recognition that those linkages are not automatic and cannot be taken for granted. For that reason there is a new concern with forging more effective links between research, industrial innovation, productiv- ity, and economic growth. Such trends are discussed in Section C of this Chapter. Although they are almost truisms that science knows no international boundaries and that technology is a key to economic development, the implications of those state- ments — and the qualifications that surround them — have become much clearer in the last two decades as some nations have made use of science and technology to chal- lenge the preeminence of the United States, while others have failed to grasp their promise . Important international issues likely to affect both the U.S. science and technol- ogy enterprise and the United States itself are highlighted in Section D. Finally, science and technology have become such per- vasive factors in industrialized societies that scientific and technical information is now widely regarded as a valu- able resource for decisionmaking and policymaking in both the public and the private sectors. Nowhere is this more evident than in the assessment and management of risks to people or to the natural environment — the ultimate support for people. Trends in that area are treated in Section E. B. Maintenance and Development of the Science and Technology Base* Since World War II. the United States has been a world leader in science and technology. American research and development programs, supported and conducted in the public and private sectors, have maintained our world leadership position in basic research, have provided the educated people needed to define and attain national ob- jectives in science and technology, and have provided technological innovations needed to improve industrial productivity and economic growth and to maintain our national security. Over the past decade, American citizens have won 57 Nobel FYizes in science and medicine, com- pared with 28 abroad. Additionally, Americans continue 'Abbreviations in parentheses appearing throughout the text refer to more complete discussions in the companion Source Volumes. A key to those abbreviations is given at the end of the Preface. Citations to the pubhshed hterature are designated by footnotes. to publish a major portion of the scientific papers in a wide range of fields (NRC-Obs.: NRC-13). However, America's international preeminence in both science and technology is being challenged. Part of the loss of our undisputed dominance in virtually all fields of science and technology derives from the restoration of the productive and intellectual capacities of Western Europe and Japan that were destroyed during World War II. Addi- tionally, recent studies suggest that, although the Nation's scientific research system currently is strong, a range of significant emerging problems could pose a threat to its long-term vitality. Major stresses that appear to be de- veloping include (1) fiscal and personnel resource con- straints; (2) increasing costs of instrumentation for advanced research activity; (3) growth of pressures for short-term returns on research investments; and (4) demo- graphic changes affecting the conduct of research carried out in colleges and universities (NRC-I3). Each of those factors is discussed in detail later in this section. Signs of stress are even more apparent in the tech- nological sphere. The United States currently maintains its leadership position in several high-technology fields, including aviation, microelectronics, computers, and ad- vanced materials technologies. However, there are other areas — automotive design, consumer electronics, steel- making, ship construction, rail transportation, and. sig- nificantly, scientific instrumentation — where the once dominant position of the United States has eroded. While the United States continues to maintain its leadership in most basic technologies critical to national defense, the Soviet Union is closing the gap in such key areas as electro-optical sensors, guidance and navigation, hydro- acoustic technology, optics, and propulsion (NS). There is no general consensus about the causes of the erosion of our international technological position. Few believe it is a result of a decrease in the inherent capacity of U.S. scientists and engineers to innovate. Rather, there appears to be a notable failure to implement innovations once they have been developed. Many of the most dramat- ic technological developments abroad are actually based on American developments that we simply failed to com- mercialize or otherwise implement. Most industrial obser- vers believe that the technological lag in many U.S. industries is not attributable solely or even primarily to weaknesses in the research and development (R&D) sys- tem. They argue that many contributing factors are exter- nal to industrial control . The problem of industrial innova- tion and its relationship to scientific and technological activities is discussed in more detail in the next section of this chapter In short, although the American science and technol- ogy enterprise is generally healthy, several problems that are appearing on the horizon could result in serious ero- sion of that enterprise. This section highlights trends likely to have important effects in the near future on the capacity of the United States to maintain its international leadership in scientific research and take advantage of the social and economic potential provided by its scientific and technological resources. The focus in this section is on the major elements of the science and technology base: the financial resources needed to sustain its activities, its personnel resources, and its institutions and facilities. FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY The financial resources available for science and technol- ogy programs are, obviously, a critical element determin- ing the vitality of the U.S. science and technology enterprise. Policy questions associated with the allocation of financial resources include these: At what levels should Generic Policy Issues 3 different science and technology programs be supported? Toward what ends? How should responsibility for support be divided between the public and private sectors? Figure 1 shows trends in U.S. R&D expenditures in both current and constant dollars. During 1981, total na- tional expenditures for all R&D activities were estimated to be $69.1 billion, with the Federal Government's share estimated at 47 percent and private industry's share 49 percent. National expenditures for basic research during 1981 were estimated to be $8.8 billion, with the Federal and industrial shares estimated to be 68 percent and 16 percent, respectively {Sl-SO). It is interesting to compare U.S. R&D expenditures with those of some other major industrialized democ- racies.' In doing so, two points are noteworthy: (1) The United States invests more in R&D than France, West Germany, and Japan combined. Although the percentage of Gross National Product (GNP) com- mitted to total national R&D investments in the Unit- ed States peaked in 1964 and generally declined through the early to mid-1970s, it is still higher than in most other countries except the Soviet Union and West Germany (Figure 2). That percentage has also de- clined or leveled off since 1967 in the United Kingdom and France, while it has risen appreciably in West Germany and Japan. Whether economic conditions will permit those countries to increase or even main- tain their investments is a subject of considerable interest abroad, as noted in Section I-D. In most cases — including the United States — changes in the percentage of GNP committed to R&D since about 1975 have been fairly small. (2) The U.S. civilian R&D/GNP ratio continued to in- crease through 1970 and, after a temporary decline in the early 1970s, rose to a percentage level of 1.6 in 1979. However, the percentage is still considerably below that of West Germany and Japan. Considering, second, the Soviet Union, available evi- dence indicates that the percentage of Gross National Product committed to R&D rose above that of the United States in 1967 and now is the largest in the world. Al- though the percentage dropped slightly since 1975, it was estimated to be 3.5 in 1978, compared with 2.2 in the United States, 2.4 in West Germany, and 1.9 in Japan. Since U.S. GNP is approximately twice that of the Soviet Union, the United States still invests more in R&D than the Soviet Union in absolute terms. In addition, the quality of Soviet R&D activities is not always believed to be equal to that of American R&D. Details on the exact proportion of Soviet R&D investments devoted to military and space applications as compared to that in the United States are not available. It is clear, however, that a much higher percentage of Soviet R&D is devoted to military THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Billions of dollars 50 40 - 30 20 10 Average annual rate of change Year Current Constant Basic Applied Development Basic Applied Development 195367 1967 75 1975-80 197980 198081 148% 52 122 135 79 99°o 64 11 8 125 11 4 11 3° 5 1 11 6 127 14 6 125°o - 5 4 4 45 - 1 9 76°o 6 42 34 1 3 9 0% - 8 4 1 35 43 Current dollars Constant 1972 dollars FIGURE I. National R&D Spending by Character of Work. 'Based on GNP Implicit price deflator Source: National Science Foundation, National Pallerns of Science and Technology Resources, 1981. programs. The Soviets have almost surely been outspend- ing the United States in military R&D in recent years (NS). In summary, the financial resources available for the conduct of R&D remain considerably greater in the Unit- ed States than in any of the leading industrialized democ- racies. However, several of those countries have been closing the gap in total R&D investments as a fraction of GNP. The Soviet Union spends a larger percentage of its GNP on R&D than does the United States, and has been closing the gap in total R&D expenditures. RESPONSIBILITIES AND RATIONALES KJR SUPPORT International comparisons are interesting and often use- ful. However, since reporting bases differ among coun- tries and inflation rates vary, the comparisons cannot be taken too literally (NRC-I3). Importantly, such compari- sons cannot address directly, or provide answers to. the question of whether U.S. support for science and technol- ogy is adequate to meet the Nation's long-term needs. Both the public and the private sectors have respon- sibilities for supporting science and technology in the United States, but their missions and roles differ Their proportional contributions vary considerably among the industrialized democracies. In the United States, approx- imately half the investments in R&D come from the Federal Government, and. of those, well over half are allocated for national security and space. The United Kingdom and France show similar investment patterns. That is. the government provides more than half the R&D funds, and a major share of those funds is focused on national security. In contrast, private industry provides the largest share of support for R&D in West Germany and Japan. In both countries, funds are more highly concentrated in areas Generic Policy Issues 5 (Percent 1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 FIGURE 2. National Expenditures for Performance of R&D' as a Percent of Gross National Product (GNP) by Country. 'Gross expenditures for performance of R&D including associated capi- tal expenditures, except for the United States where total capital expendi- ture data are not available. "Detailed information on capital expenditures for research and develop- ment are not available for the United States. Estimates for the period 1972-80 show that their inclusion would have an impact of less than one- tenth of one percent for each year Note: The latest data may be preliminary or estimated. Source: National Science Foundation. Science Indicators. 1980. directly related to economic growth (for example, man- ufacturing, transportation, and telecommunications) than in the United States. Governments of the United King- dom. France. West Germany, and Japan also allocate a higher proportion of their total funds for support of re- search in universities and national laboratories than does the United States. That is most markedly the case in West Germany and Japan (SISO). In the United States, private industry engages in and supports R&D primarily to produce or improve marketa- ble, profitable products and processes or, increasingly during the 1970s, to meet environmental, safety, and health regulations. American industry also provides some support for university research and teaching, but that support is small relative to the expenditures it makes to support its own R&D. The rationale for Federal support of R&D in the United States, both in its own laboratories and in other institu- tions, is varied. Since World War II, the Federal Govern- ment has assumed responsibility for supporting science and technology to fulfill three broad objectives: ( 1) to support its own direct responsibilities (in such areas as national defense, space, and air traffic control): (2) to accelerate the rate of technological development in the private sector in areas of overriding national need, particularly when financial risks are large and the costs are inordinately high relative to potential short- term returns on investments (in such areas as agricul- ture, health, energy, and transportation): and (3) to support the research needed to maintain, develop, and replenish the store of knowledge, tools, person- nel, and skills that underlie and provide the base for the U.S. science and technology enterprise. Research and development activities in all three categor- ies are carried out both in the Federal Government's own laboratories and in other settings. In the latter, performers are supported by either contracts or grants. Since the Federal Government is the primary, if not the sole, consumer of the results of the first type of activity, levels of support can be related directly to its own specific end-use requirements. For example, a high priority of the Administration is to rebuild the Nation's defense ca- pabilities. Thus, the President's fiscal year 1981 and 1982 budgets proposed appreciable increases in defense-related R&D in order to narrow the aggregate gap between U.S. and Soviet expenditures in that category (NS). Among the three categories of Federal R&D support, the most intense policy debates during the next 5 years are likely to surround the second. Not only is there no con- sensus about how to determine which areas of national need are sufficiently important to justify Federal develop- mental support of the private sector, but there is disagree- ment about appropriate levels of support, distribution of effort between Federal laboratories and private industry, and whether Federal support should come directly as a contract, subsidy, or low interest loan, or indirectly through such means as tax incentives and procurements. The Reagan Administration will no longer support pro- grams of an economic subsidy nature. For this reason, the President's budgets have proposed significant reductions in many R&D programs that appear to have near-term commercial payoffs. CRITERIA FOR FEDERAL SUPPORT OF BASIC SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Issues associated with resource allocations in the third category — often called the basic research category — re- quire somewhat more discussion, since that category, of the three, is most directly linked to maintaining and developing the U.S. science and technology base. The assertion that the Federal Government has a re- sponsibility to invest in developing and maintaining the 6 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK knowledge base was the most novel and far reaching feature of Vannevar Bush's 1945 classic. Science — The Endless Frontier.- Despite the urgent need for fiscal re- straint, the President's March 1981 budget proposals in- cluded provisions for continued growth in real dollars in Federal support for basic research. Since research of that type most often cannot be justified in terms of foreseeable applications — the benefits to be derived from enhancing the knowledge base often are not immediately derived or even obvious — support levels cannot be determined by quantitative criteria such as returns on investments. Rather, the Federal Government supports research in that category on the grounds that the costs for carrying out such research, particularly on the cutting edges in most fields, are greater than can be borne by the research institutions (frequently universities) and that there is a national need to maintain and promote the development of the knowledge base. Currently, 66 percent of Federal support for basic research goes to universities, including university-administered Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs); 20 percent to national laboratories: 8 percent to other nonprofit institutions; and 6 percent to private industry {SI-80.). Although there is a general consensus about both the legitimacy and the desirability of Federal investments to maintain and replenish the knowledge base, debates are likely to continue about how to delineate research ac- tivities in this category from research activities that are meant to underlie the development of a marketable prod- uct, and, therefore, are the responsibility of the private sector Many attempts have been made to identify a unique set of categories to classify all types of research in science and engineering.' The basic research/applied research categories are the most familiar, although such other dis- tinctions as long-term/short-term or directed/nondirected are also employed. Recognition is growing that while distinctions such as those are useful for some purposes, it is probably not possible to define a unique set of categories to classify all types of research activity that would be useful for every purpose for which some categorization might be needed. Indeed, overemphasizing the basic re- search/applied research classifications may suggest that those activities are in some ways antithetical, and thus obscure the essential fact that research spans a broad continuum. But, there is broad agreement that there exists a type of activity characterized by its focus on the develop- ment of knowledge, tools, and skills; by the gener- alizability of its results; and by uncertainty in the length of time likely to elapse before those results are translated into tangible technological developments. That type of ac- tivity is referred to as basic research or as basic science and engineering throughout this report. Basic research is performed in all scientific and, it should be emphasized, all engineering disciplines as well. Indeed, one interesting trend over the past 3 or 4 years is a growing appreciation on the part of scientists that a great deal of research in engineering is, by virtue of its focus on knowledge, tools, and skills, and by virtue of the broad generalizability of its results, fully as fundamental or basic as what has traditionally been regarded as basic research in the mathematical, physical, and biological sciences. Since research in science and engineering spans a broad range of activities, it is almost never possible to draw a precise line between investments intended to maintain and replenish the knowledge base and those aimed at solving immediate and identifiable problems. In an increasing number of areas, each may feed into the other. Research narrowly aimed at a specific technological development may turn up basic questions worth pursuing for their intrinsic conceptual importance apart from applications. At the same time, basic research may open up technologi- cal opportunities that convert a seemingly exotic intellec- tual puzzle into a challenging development project. Moreover, research undertaken to improve and refine understanding in one particular area often has dramatic consequences elsewhere. For example, while the original motivation for studying recombinant DNA and other cell fusion techniques was a better understanding of the nature of genetic replication and protein synthetic processes, the findings from those research activities have spawned not only new technologies but whole new industries as well (AAAS^; HEALTH). Lasers were originally developed as tools for basic research in physics. However, laser technology has dra- matically broadened the capabilities for research in chem- istry, and biology as well, and is of great importance in national defense and communications. Lasers are also being used increasingly for military, medical, and indus- trial applications (NS; GST; ASTR-IU). Fundamental research also underlies the development of a wide range of engineering capabilities. The phe- nomenon of turbulent flow, for example, is associated with bodies moving through a viscous medium, as well as with fluids moving through pipes, pumps, turbines, and heat exchangers. Designers of a broad range of equipment want to ensure a smooth flow because once the flow separates from hulls, airfoils, or ducts, drag or resistance rises abruptly, and the efficiency of the system decays sharply. Recent research suggests that the onset of tur- bulence may actually exhibit a pulsating structure or re- petitive pattern and that it may prove more tractable to mathematical analysis than anyone had thought. If this can be verified, it will have a great impact on all sorts of problems — not simply in the design of aircraft and ships, but in the design of efficient mixing and heat exchange systems like rocket engine combustors and steam condensers. These examples suggest the difficulty in making sup- port allocation decisions on the basis of the eventual utility of research results. A somewhat different type of suggested criterion for allocating research support among Generic Policy Issues 7 different kinds of scientific and technological activities emerged during the 1970s. According to this criterion, research support should be directed not just to the solution of specific short-term problems or to increasing the knowledge base, but, more broadly, to the attainment of long-term social goals. It has, for example, been sug- gested that more research in biomedical fields should be directed toward the health care needs of underserved and disadvantaged populations both in this country and abroad (Section II-D). Application of this type of criterion en- counters the same problems that arise in trying to target research to specific developmental ends. In addition, it encounters the formidable obstacle of trying to link re- search and development, which may themselves be car- ried out in different institutions, with an external social and economic delivery system (in the example cited, the health care system) that is driven by a very different set of imperatives than the research system. The important point, again, is that basic research, by its very nature, is not goal-specific; its utility or potential applications usu- ally cannot be predicted. What may be needed is a mecha- nism by which recognition of the practical implications of basic research advances can be facilitated as those ad- vances occur. The desirability of applying a final, related, and largely negative criterion to the determination of research direc- tions was also debated during the 1970s. Application of this criterion would place limits on research whose results could conceivably lead to consequences that might entail risks to individuals and society. The most celebrated instance of research in that category is recombinant DNA research ( AAAS^). The heart of the recombinant DNA debate was not whether scientists and engineers should be exempt from regulations affecting the use of substances known to be or to have a good chance of being hazardous, though there v/ere debates about how such regulations ought to be drawn up. Rather, the central issue was whether the search for knowledge can or should be regu- lated on the grounds that knowledge itself cou\d ultimately prove to be dangerous.^ The extension of Federal regulatory authority in the health, safety, and environmental areas during the 1970s — as well as proposals for even greater extensions of its authority — may have derived in part from the erosion of public confidence in the inevitable good to be derived from science and technology that began to become evi- dent in some quarters in the late 1960s (AAAS-1), partly as a result of the rising public sensitivity to environmental damage that could emerge from the application of modem technology. By now, there is agreement that at least some types of regulations are counterproductive. However, there is less agreement on what those counterproductive regulations are and how they should be enforced, or on how to achieve their desired, beneficial effects without doing serious damage to the science and technology enter- prise itself (See also Sections C and E). That set of issues will need continued consideration to provide for an appro- priate balance between minimizing risk and ensuring the continued development of the scientific and technological base. HUMAN RESOURCES FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY It is a truism that maximum effectiveness of the science and technology enterprise requires that it be carried out by the best and most highly trained individuals our society can produce. That requires, at a minimum, that adequate numbers of qualified young people be given the best possible education in science and engineering, and that adequate resources are available to permit them to make use of their talent and training. Universities, the armed services, and, in certain critical fields, industry are reporting severe difficulties in recruit- ing sufficient numbers of qualified engineers and scien- tists. Personnel shortages are most acute in computer sciences, in the fields of chemical, electrical, and indus- trial engineering, and, among scientific subspecialties, in solid-state physics, optics, analytical chemistry, and tox- icology.'^ Additionally, medical schools report increasing numbers of vacancies in faculty research and teaching positions (Section II-D). The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected a 40 per- cent increase in employment opportunities in science and engineering occupations at all degree levels from 1978 to 1990." If present undergraduate enrollment trends persist throughout the decade, there should continue to be more than enough new graduates at both the bachelors and Ph.D. levels in all of the traditional fields of science, although unanticipated shortages in specific subfields may develop. In contrast, there almost certainly will not be sufficient numbers of people trained in computer science in 1990, although those deficiencies can be alleviated by people trained in related disciplines. The situation for engineering personnel is more problematic. University engineering departments are facing severe problems, dis- cussed below, due to faculty shortages and equipment obsolescence. Thus, it cannot be taken for granted that engineering enrollments can, in fact, continue to expand at a sufficient rate to satisfy anticipated demands. The anticipated supply/demand situation for Ph.D.- level engineers is even less certain. Given reasonable assumptions regarding inflation and productivity growth rates, there should be adequate numbers of advanced degree engineers by the end of the decade — provided that such engineers are not used any differently in the future than they are being used at present. It is precisely at this point that the utility of quantitative personnel projections in providing adequate assessments of the future can be questioned. For although the total supply of Ph.D. engi- neers — or for that matter bachelors-level engineers — may 8 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK be approximately equal to demand, small deficiencies in the number of highly gifted and highly trained people in specific, critical subspecialties may seriously hamper efforts to pursue some advanced R&D. In other words, the quality of available science and engineering personnel can be, in many important instances, more important than their quantity. Personnel shortages in scientific and technological fields are not unique to the United States. There also are impending shortages of science and engineering person- nel in other industrialized countries (NRC-13). Although the number of scientists and engineers engaged in R&D as a fraction of the labor force is higher in the United States than in the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, or Japan, this fraction has been decreasing in the United States from the late 1960s through the early 1970s, while it has risen in those other countries and, in West Germany and Japan, is continuing to rise (Figure 3). The U.S. fraction has increased slightly in the past few years but has not reached its former level (SI-80). The Soviet Union has a substantially larger proportion of its labor force engaged in R&D activities than does the United States, although quality comparisons might yield different results. In 1979, there were between 84 and 95 scientists and engi- neers per 10,000 members of the Soviet labor force en- gaged in R&D, and the number'appears to be increasing. The comparable figure for the United States in 1979 was 59 per 10,000, and that ratio appears to have stabilized {SI-80). These comparisons suggest that although several coun- tries that are challenging America's international preemi- nence in science and technology are not without personnel problems, those problems are potentially more severe in the United States. Therefore, both qualitative and quan- titative aspects of the science and engineering personnel situation in the United States will continue to require attention in the coming years. (Per 10,000 labor force) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 b'j 60 55 50 45 40 35 JO - USSR ^^^"^^^ - - high estimate ^.^y^ ^ - / y< USSR - ^ X / f — low estimate - y^ United ^ yx States - Japan ^ ..♦• ^-"C^ West ^,''' ^ ~~- Germany - France UnileO Kingdom - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 5 1965 56 67 68 59 70 71 72 73 74 75 75 77 78 79 80 FIGURE 3. Scientists and Engineers' Engaged in R&D per 10,000 Labor Force Population by Country. 'Includes all scientists and engineers on a full-time equivalent basis (except for Japan, whose data include persons primarily employed in R&D, and the United Kingdom, whose data include only the Govern- ment and industry sectors). Note: A range has been provided for the U.SS.R. because of the difficulties inherent in comparing Soviet scientific personnel data. Source: National Science Foundation. Science I ndicuKirs. 19X0, RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS Approximately 70 percent of American total R&D (on the basis of funds expended) is performed by private industry, 13 percent is carried out in government laboratories, about 10 percent in universities and colleges, 4 percent in uni- versity-administered federally funded research and de- velopment centers, and the remainder in other nonprofit laboratories' (Figure 4). Most scientific and technological activities of industry are classified as development work. Approximately one third of U.S. national R&D expendi- tures is directed toward basic and applied research pro- grams, and approximately 50 percent of all basic research is conducted in university settings."* Financial resources and, in some critical cases, person- nel resources for scientific research in the civilian sector are likely to remain tight during the next 5 years, although the President's economic policy is designed to encourage increased investments by private industry. In view of those constraints, there is likely to be increased emphasis on justifying proposed research directions in all types of institutions and on evaluating their results. There proba- bly will also be continuing pressures toward structural changes that might facilitate research. During the recent past, there has been renewed interest in forging closer links between university and industrial laboratories. Im- plications of that trend, which is likely to accelerate during the next 5 years, are discussed in the next section of this chapter. UNIVERSITY RESEARCH The Nation's higher education system has been at the leading edge of the extraordinary growth and superb quality of the research that gave the United States preemi- Generic Policv Issues 9 By performer By character of work Federal Government Industry Universities Otfier nonprofit and colleges 3% 3% ,„3,„^^,|on3 13% 71% 1 9°„ , Research BdSic Applied Development FFRDC 13% 22°o 65% FIGURE 4. The National R&D Effort (expenditures for R&D = 69.1 billion, 1981 (est.)] 'Federally funded research and developmeni centers administered by universities and colleges. Source: National Science Foundation. National Pallerns of Science and Technologx Resources. 1981. nence in science and technology during World War II and in the succeeding decades. That growth was due in large measure to the infusion of Federal support for scientific research. In recognition of the unique contributions made by university laboratories, the President's March 1981 budget proposed an increase of 6.1 percent in university R&D support between fiscal years 1981 and 1982. During the past decade, American universities, includ- ing their science and engineering departments, have been subject to unusual pressures resulting from demographic changes and continuing high rates of inflation. Those pressures have strained their effectiveness both as teach- ing and as research institutions. Since the size of the 18- to-24-year-old age group will continue to decrease until well into the 1990s, competition for undergraduates among American colleges and universities is likely to become even more severe during the next 5 years and beyond." While university research in science and engi- neering is supported heavily by funds from external sources , financial problems experienced by a university as a whole have direct effects on its science and engineering capabilities. For example, most university research is conducted by teaching faculty who receive at least a portion of their salaries from general university funds. Thus, the size of university science and engineering de- partments and the amount of research they can conduct are strongly dependent on student enrollments and on the general health of the universities. University science and engineering departments are currently experiencing two major problems that limit their effectiveness in both teaching and research: faculty re- cruitment and retention, and equipment obsolescence. Faculty problems are almost diametrically different in science and engineering departments; the dimensions of the equipment problem are very similar. in most science departments, the major faculty prob- lem is one of limited opportunities for younger scientists. Because of financial stringencies, decreasing enroll- ments, and the fact that an appreciable fraction of the tenured faculty is well below retirement age, science departments have fewer openings for new Ph.D. scientists than they did a decade ago. This situation is particularly apparent in mathematics and physics. Since young scien- tists are often among the most creative and productive, their decreased presence raises serious problems for the health of the universities and the scientific enterprise in general (NRC-13; ASTR-HI). In contrast, engineering and computer science depart- ments are experiencing faculty shortages at all levels, and little relief is in sight during the next 5 years. Undergradu- ate enrollments in those fields have been increasing for the past 5 years, while the number of Ph.D.'s awarded has been declining for almost a decade.'" Thus, the total pool from which new doctoral-level engineers can be drawn to staff a research faculty has been decreasing, while, at the same time, competition from industry has been increas- ing. Not only can industry offer Ph.D. engineers better salaries than universities can, but, importantly, research facilities available in industry have become decidedly superior to those in universities, a situation that has grown worse during the past decade with the improvement of industrial laboratories and some deterioration of univer- sity engineering laboratories. Imbalances between aggre- gate supply and demand for engineers in industry may well be resolved by free market mechanisms. On the other hand, problems faced by engineering and computer sci- ence departments in universities have resulted in large measure from their failure to compete for qualified per- sonnel. Current steps being taken by the Federal Govern- ment to ease the severity of the problems include provi- sion of research assistantships as a component of grants and contracts to engineering departments for graduate students who are interested in, and qualified for, academic careers. Increased cooperation between universities and industry to facilitate joint appointments and cooperative exchange programs would be an additional, useful com- ponent of any long-term solution to faculty personnel problems." Equipment obsolescence is a second severe problem for university science and engineering laboratories. During 10 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK the 1970s, such equipment-intensive fields as physics, chemistry, the life sciences, computer science, and engi- neering experienced rapidly escalating costs for maintain- ing existing laboratory facilities and for developing and purchasing the newer, more sophisticated state-of-the-art apparatus needed to conduct research at the cutting edge of those fields. According to one estimate, equipment replacement costs rose at an average rate of 4 percent above inflation during the 1970s. At the same time. Federal funds for research equipment and facilities de- clined sharply during that period, and few universities have been able to provide sufficient assistance for equip- ment purchase or facilities modernization from their gen- eral funds to offset the decline in Federal support. '- The equipment obsolescence problem, which has al- ready been cited as one factor contributmg to current shortages of engineering faculty members, is having a direct effect on the quality of university research con- ducted in equipment-intensive fields in both science and engineering. The problem could also have adverse con- sequences for industrial research laboratories that have, in the past, relied heavily on university laboratories for innovative instrumentation concepts. In the words of one observer, the "dynamics of the concurrent advances in scientific instrumentation and industrial technology lie at the heart of the American success story in both areas."" There are several conceivable remedies to the instru- mentation problem. They include, in addition to closer university-industry cooperation, special research equip- ment purchase grants, greater flexibility in Federal re- search grant and contract management procedures that would encourage pooling of equipment funds and sharing of apparatus among university departments, expansion of regional instrumentation facilities, and expansion of cen- tralized research facilities for university users at federally supported national laboratories. Several scientific disciplines, including oceanography, radio astronomy, and high-energy physics, have long since adapted to using such centralized facilities. The centralized arrangements have enabled substantial re- search progress in those fields, and some observers be- lieve that their extension to other scientific fields is both inevitable and desirable." Considerably greater use is made of centralized research facilities outside the univer- sity system in Western Europe than in the United States. Basic research is conducted both in universities and in associated organizations that are not integral parts of universities both here and in Europe. But, whereas in the United States those associated organizations — the na- tional laboratories — are administered by universities or consortia of universities, in Western Europe — particularly France and Germany — systems of government-supported laboratories exist independently of, and in parallel with, the universities. For that reason, the number of available research positions (and the capacity of those countries to conduct research) is less closely tied to student demo- graphics than in the United States (NRC-13). Additionally, France, Germany, and the United King- dom all maintain a dual system for supporting research. First, continuing institutional support for conducting re- search is provided to both university and nonuniversity laboratories. Second, grants for special research projects are provided, as in the United States. The three countries also provide support for longer periods of time and for more aggregated research efforts than does the United States. Finally, because of their more limited resources, the Europeans rely more extensively than the United States on cooperative programs at various levels — within individual laboratories, regionally within their own coun- tries, and internationally with one another (NRC-13). Given the increasing scale, cost, and complexity of basic research, the European experience, particularly with cooperative research arrangements across the entire range of scientific disciplines, is likely to be of increasing interest in the United States during the next 5 years. However, the probable effects of greater centralization of the U.S. research effort on both the teaching and the research functions of universities have yet to be assessed adequately. RESEARCH IN INDUSTRY Industry-based scientific research laboratories date from the late 19th century, stimulated in large measure by the success of German industry in coupling scientific results to industrial development, particularly in the synthetic dye industry. Practices in early industrial research labora- tories, which emphasized an interdisciplinary, scientific approach to problem solving, were in many ways counter to the more prevalent model of technology exemplified by Thomas Edison, which emphasized the solution of imme- diate problems by intuition and ingenuity. Those con- trasting styles are still evident in U.S. industrial practice. The amount and character of the research conducted in private corporate laboratories today differ considerably among industries and with the size of firms within particu- lar industries (Figure 5). However, in spite of those dif- ferences, research in industry shares one characteristic that distinguishes it from research conducted in univer- sities and organizations associated with universities: most of it is purposeful; it either aims at the production of a marketable product or aims to respond to Federal regula- tions (NRC-14). That need not imply that all industrial research is focused on specific, identifiable, short-term objectives; indeed, a good deal is devoted to developing the knowledge and tools needed to maintain long-term industrial vitality. Moreover, the length of time that elap- ses between obtaining research results and incorporating them into marketable products may be considerable. Viewed from those perspectives, much of the research Generic Policy Issues 1 1 10 JH 'f z DC S -I o o o 1 1 1- UJ LU Z > > LU cr cr ^ O O 9: I- I- Z) OOo S 5 m 'O z a: Q- cc CL c/) ; FIGURE 5. Company R&D Funds as a Percent of Net Sales: 1979, Source: National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies. carried out in private industry is as "'basic" as the researcii typically conducted in universities. Nevertheless, indus- trial research is aimed ultimately at producing or improv- ing a marketable product, rather than at a deepened or refined understanding of some aspect of the physical or manmade universe. This industrial objective can and does act as a mechanism for filtering and directing research. There is a second, essential, distinguishing characteris- tic of industrial research that is intimately related to the first: industrial research laboratories, unlike university or government laboratories, are part of a system that includes development, engineering, manufacturing, and market- ing activities. With the exception of a few industries, such as some aerospace and defense-related industries that sell most of their output to the Federal Government, industrial firms depend for their survival on their competitive posi- tions in the marketplace. Thus, allocations for research laboratories typically are based on the judgment, by cor- porate management, of the likely long-term market return for research investments (AAAS-2). Since the mid-1960s, R&D activities in many industries have shifted away from what has traditionally been called basic research toward very specifically defined programs geared more to the solution of short-term problems (NRC-14). Some of the apparent shift away from long- term basic research in industry may be due to problems in distinguishing basic and applied research in industrial settings.'^ However, there is a strong consensus that cor- porate management has been increasingly concerned with short-term profits at the expense of long-term investments in projects that are high risk and have long payback times (NRC-14; AAAS-2). Edward David has noted that in medium- and large-size firms that can afford centralized research laboratories, there is almost always a struggle between those who believe that research should serve the interests of marketing and production and those who believe that the potential of new technologies ought to have a large influence over marketing goals. That opposi- tion between short-range and long-range perspectives has been inherent in industrial research since the 19th cen- tury.'" But, during the 1970s, as profit margins decreased for many industries and, in some cases, all but vanished, there began a strong trend toward reducing long-term research investments (NRC-14). There are many who believe that the trend away from long-term investments in research in some industries has been a primary contributor to the erosion of U.S. leader- ship in some critical industries (NRC-14; AAAS-2). While the President's economic policy is designed to encourage greater private sector investments in R&D, resources for industrial R&D are expected to continue to be somewhat constrained during the 1980s. The amounts available will depend on several factors, including the likelihood that the legal and regulatory climate will not unduly impede the transition from R&D to commercial- ization. The specific effects of those factors will differ among industries. But overall, there is likely to be in- creased emphasis on selecting and justifying high-quality research efforts and on placing priorities on the selection of long-range efforts. '^ Because they are less capital and energy intensive than many other industries, considerable R&D growth is antic- ipated in the next 5 years in those areas of the electronics industry dealing with microprocessors and minicomput- ers, data communications equipment, and integrated cir- cuits. Advances in computer capabilities should permit appreciable productivity increases in other manufacturing industries, including the automotive, aircraft, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries. In the capital-intensive automotive and aircraft industries, research aimed at more energy-efficient products that also meet mandated regula- tory standards will very probably be emphasized. The possibility of rising energy prices is certain to stimulate research in the energy-producing industries. Research in the chemical industry is likely to focus increasingly on improving process economics, reflecting rising costs for raw materials and energy, rather than on developing new products as in the past. The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from the explosion of fundamental knowledge in biochemistry, molecular cell biology, im- munology, and neurobiology. That increased understand- 12 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK ing, together with sophisticated research instruments now available, should result in a new era of drug discovery and development — one in which drugs are targeted to inter- rupt a specific disease process rather than simply treating signs and symptoms. Focused research and development of that nature should help to mitigate the effects of Federal regulations that, by greatly increasing the number and types of tests required before a new drug can be marketed, have led to rapidly escalating costs for research, develop- ment, and commercialization (NRC-14). Devising ways to improve the linkages between the industrial R&D enterprise and other components of the U.S. research system — particularly the universities — is one of the issues associated with industrial R&D activities that is likely to receive prominence during the next 5 years. Another critical issue is the role of the Federal Government in stimulating (or inhibiting) industrial R&D. Those issues are related to the problems of innova- tion, productivity, and economic growth and are treated in more detail in the next section. REFERENCES 1. The data that follow are from the National Science Foundation, Science Indicators 1980 ISISO). Washington. DC.: U.S. Government Pnnting Office. 1981. 2. Vannevar Bush. Science — the Endless Frontier. First issued July 5. 1945. Reprinted May 1980. Washington, D.C.: National Science Foun- dation, 1980. 3. Categories of Scientific Research. Papers presented at a National Science Foundation Seminar December H, 1979. NSF 80-28. Wash- ington. D.C.: National Science Foundation, 1980. 4. Richard C. Atkinson. "Rights and Responsibilities in Scientitic Research," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (December 1978), pp. 10-14 5. Statements and data regarding science and engineering personnel are based on National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education. Science and Engineering Education for the 1980s and Beyond. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1980. 6. Ibid., p. 55. 7. National Science Foundation. National Patterns of Science and Technology Resources 1981 . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- ing Office, 1981. 8. W.H. Shapley, A.H. Teich, G.J. Breslow, andC V. Kidd Research and Development: AAAS Report V. Washington, D.C.: American Asso- ciation for the Advancement of Science, 1980 9. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education, op. cit. (Ref. 5). 10. Ibid. 11. Ibid. See 3ho Industries and the Universities. Washington, D.C.: National Commission on Research, 1980. 12.r/i(' Scientific Instrumentation Needs of Research Univer- sities. Washmglon. DC: Amencan Association of Universities, 1980. 13. Lewis M. Branscomb. "Research Equipment .Acquisition," Sci- ence. Vol. 212 (May 22, 1981). p. 877. 14. National Commission on Research. Research Personnel: An Essay on Policy. Washington. D.C.: National Commission on Research. 1980. 15. Atkinson, op. cit. (Ref. 4). See also Edward D David. "Industrial Research in America: Challenge of New Synthesis." Science. Vol. 209 (July 4, 19801, pp. 133-139. 16. Ibid. 17. Ibid. C. Contributions of Science and Technology to Industrial Innovation, Productivity, and Economic Growth The President's February 5, 1981, address to the Nation on the economy emphasized the goals of fostering industrial innovation, increasing productivity, and stimulating eco- nomic growth to increase the quality of life of all Amer- icans and to maintain our national security.' Figure 6, which shows that the overall growth of productivity in manufacturing industries in the United States has lagged behind that of several other industrialized nations, provides ample grounds for the President's concern. A wide variety of factors influence innovation, produc- tivity, and economic progress, including inllation. energy prices, and labor costs (NRC-Obs.). Research and de- velopment activities are, however, of particular relevance to this report since they underlie the innovation process and provide many of the tools needed for increasing productivity. There is considerable evidence pointing to the histor- ical and current relationship between American science and technology and economic growth. The Committee on Economic Development (CED) has, for example, ex- pressed the view that "technological progress is perhaps the most important source of future economic vitality and social progress for the United States".- That perspective is also evident throughout the contributions that appear in the accompanying Source Volumes. Studies cited in Sci- ence lndicators-197H show that, between 1948 and 1969. 34 percent of measurable U.S. economic growth derived from advances in knowledge and that industries with high Generic Policx Issues 13 (Index; 1967=100) 2W — • 190 United States /- _ France ," '•^ .' West Germany / 170 Japan .' A/ — United Kingdom / /'- 150 _ _„„™ Canada - / /^-^~ 130 — k / //.•'" y^ 110 - 0/^ - 90 /^ - .«••• ^ 70 "-" ..•• — 50 - - 30 - - 10 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1960 62 64 66 70 72 74 76 77 FIGURE 6. Relative Change in Productivity' in Manufacturing Indus tries by Selected Countries; 1960-77. 'Output per worker hour Note: Estimates are shown for latest year Source; National Science Foundation. Science huliauors. 1978. ratios of R&D spending to sales (for example, chemicals, electrical machinery) experience substantially higher growths of productivity and output than industries with low ratios (for example, textiles). Research results re- ported in Science Indicators — 1980 confirm these implicit correlations and trends. A study by Mansfield suggests that there is a strong and direct relationship between the amount of long-term basic research carried out by a firm and its rate of productivity growth, even when the amount invested in applied R&D is held constant.' Since the persistence of the relationship between ad- vances in knowledge, innovation, and economic growth is not easily documented, those estimates are subject to some uncertainty.^ For example, productivity is very diffi- cult to quantify; approaches to its measurement depend on interpretations of its meaning, which vary considerably. In a purely quantitative sense, productivity can be viewed as the ratio of outputs, in terms of physical quantities of the product produced, to inputs, such as labor and capital. But, those kinds of estimates do not take into account such things as the quality of the product produced. Therefore, quantitative indices of productivity that are based on the number of items produced and do not show increases in quality over time can give the impression of stagnation in productivity advances. Indeed, the contributions of ad- vances in technology to the qualitative aspects of produc- tivity could be far greater than purely quantitative meas- ures would suggest. Moreover, the problem of stimulating industrial innovation cannot be divorced entirely from the problem of the social utility of a particular innovation. Despite these caveats, there is wide agreement that there has been and continues to be a strong relationship between research and development activities and eco- nomic growth. Therefore, a major question that will need continuing attention during the next 5 years is: How can the United States maximize the contributions of science and technology to the national goals of increasing innova- tion, productivity, and economic growth? THE CAUSES OF LAGGING INNOVATION Stimulating innovation has been and continues to be a major national goal, implying that current levels are be- low those expected or desirable. In fact, there are indica- tions that innovation and productivity in some American industries are lagging behind those of several other indus- trialized countries, such as West Germany. France and Japan, and that the United States is thereby losing its international preeminence in such vital industries as con- sumer electronics, metallurgy, and automotives (NRC-14; AAAS-2: TRANS). In the military sphere, the Soviet Union appears to be closing the gap in implement- ing such key technologies as electro-optical sensors, guid- ance and navigation, hydroacoustics, optics, and propul- sion (NS). Understanding the causes of the innovation lag in the United States requires some dissection of the total indus- trial innovation process. That process consists of a series of stages ranging from the generation of new ideas, through the development of pilot projects to further refine and develop new technologies, to their conversion into marketable products and processes. There does not appear to be any decline in the ability of industrial scientists and engineers to come up with innovative ideas. Rather, most observers believe that the problem is inherent in the subse- quent stages of the total innovation sequence — namely in providing sufficient support to the R&D activities needed 14 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK to convert seminal ideas into marketable products and processes (NRC-Obs; NRC-14). The Japanese consumer electronics industry, for example, owes much of its cur- rent success to the successful adaptation of technologies developed in the United States (AAAS-2). Japanese in- dustry also appears to have made good use of organiza- tional behavior data to streamline industrial processes. Additionally, manufacturing processes in such key U.S. industries as metallurgy and automotives do not employ the best available computer-assisted technologies. Amer- ican industry had, for example, some 2.000 robots at work in assembly line production in 1980, compared with 13,000 in Japan (NS). It appears that one important reason for the lag in innovation in some industrial sectors is a decrease in the growth rate of industrial investments in long-term R&D programs and in incorporating the results of R&D into manufacturing processes (NRC-14; AAAS-2; ASTR-IJ: Outlook/). Although, in absolute terms, there has been a substantial increase in total industrial R&D outlays over the past few years — compensating somewhat for a marked reduction during the early and mid-I970s'^ — there appears to be a major shift in the form of research and develop- ment investments in some American industries. That shift is away from long-range research and development toward a concentration on short-term needs.* At least a part of this has been due to the great increase in Government regula- tions in the 1970s. The shift toward short-term problem solving is likely to continue to have dramatic negative effects on industrial innovation in the future (NRC-14). When viewed in comparison with other countries, total R&D investments in the industries of most other major industrialized nations have been increasing over the past decade at a faster rate than those of the United States. That difference is apparent both in terms of the amount of money invested in R&D relative to the Gross National Product and in terms of the number of scientists and engineers as a proportion of the total labor force. More- over, in West Germany and Japan. R&D investments are more heavily concentrated in such areas as manufactur- ing, transportation, and telecommunications that are di- rectly related to economic growth fASTR-I: SI~80). Some experts believe that the relative decline in research and development investments in some American industries has had and will continue to have major effects on the international competitive position of many U.S. firms (AAAS-2; AAAS-6). This background suggests that two kinds of related actions may be needed if the rate of industrial innovation is to be significantly stimulated in the long term. First, an overall increase in industrial investments in R&D; sec- ond, redirection of a larger part of those investments toward long-range projects rather than toward short-term problem solving. President Reagan's tax plan is designed to accomplish precisely those goals. THE REASONS FOR CURRENT PATTERNS OF INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS Any suggested mechanisms for changing current patterns of industrial research and development investments as a means for fostering innovation must consider the reasons why current patterns exist. Two kinds of factors typically are cited. One set of factors is largely beyond the control of industry; the other set is inherent in current industrial management practices. FACTORS EXTERNAL TO INDUSTRY CONTROL The first set of factors typically cited is largely external to business and industry. It includes such things as energy prices, high inflation rates. Federal tax and patent pol- icies, and Federal regulations. Federal regulations, in particular, can require that industrial resources be directed toward meeting their requirements and away from invest- ment in long-term R&D (NRC-Obs.; NRC-14). The nature of Federal regulations varies widely, as do their efficacy and the degree to which they discourage long-range R&D investments. In some cases, as in ener- gy-related industries, regulations are concerned with processes. In others, as in the food and drug industries, they are concerned primarily with products. Some regula- tions have spawned R&D aimed at profitable control tech- nologies. That has been the case in industries — the chemi- cal industry, for example — where regulations typically specify control by the Use of the best available means rather than by specifying a level of control without refer- ence to any means to achieve that end (NRC-14). Despite the wide variation in types of regulations, there is a strong perception in industry, and in this Administration, that the effect of the broad extension of Federal regulatory au- thority during the 1970s has, on balance, been negative.' In industries that both are capital intensive and produce a complicated product (such as an automobile or an air- plane), changes to meet specified regulatory ends are not easily made. They involve redesign and testing of more than one part and often necessitate major capital expendi- tures. In many cases the funds for such changes are not readily available, with the result that long-term R&D programs are compromised to obtain them (NRC-14). For somewhat different reasons, regulation of the phar- maceuticals industry has been cited as a particularly noto- rious example. Those regulations have increased mark- edly both the cost and the time required to bring a new drug to the market and, thereby, have raised the market prices of new drugs. In addition, regulations have slowed down the flow of new drugs and reduced the number of companies with financial resources adequate to engage in the development of new drugs. Those kinds of negative effects have raised questions about whether regulation of Generic Policx Issues 15 the pharmaceuticals industry has. on balance, been in the public interest (NRC-Obs.). In addition to imposing the need for such defensive research in industry. Federal regulations add to uncertain- ties on the part of corporate managers about whether products resulting from investments in R&D can be mar- keted at competitive costs, or even at all.* Although few would suggest that industries should not be regulated at all, there is reasonably strong sentiment that Federal reg- ulatory policies can and should be made more efficient and selective, thereby reducing some of the costs of meet- ing regulatory requirements and encouraging greater in- vestment in long-term R&D (NRC-14). The President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief, chaired by the Vice President, is expected to make recommendations to im- prove the rational bases for establishing regulatory priorities. FACTORS INHERENT IN AMERICAN MANAGEMENT CHARACTERISTICS Investments in long-term R&D programs clearly depend on the willingness or propensity of industrial managers to make those kinds of investments. However, current man- agement practices, at least in some industries, notably metallurgy and automotives, may bias against making long-term investments (NRC-Obs.). The automotive and aircraft industries have already modified their products both to increase fuel efficiency and to reduce energy used in production. But it is clearly difficult for industries facing severe financial problems to increase their invest- ments in long-term R&D (NRC-14). Moreover, as argued by Abemathy and Rosenbloom (AAAS-2) and by Prewitt (SSRC-1), industrial reward systems for high-level execu- tives can have a negative effect on long-term R&D, since rewards or bonuses to executives frequently are based on short-term profits, which encourages a short time hori- zon. Long-term investments in new and perhaps risky technologies, as well as costly retooling of existing ma- chinery to accommodate new technical advances, have little immediate payoff, a condition that does not lead to reaping immediate rewards. It also has been argued that investment in long-term technological development demands a certain basic un- derstanding of the technical base of the industry and that American recruitment and selection practices for high- level managers in some industries often are coun- terproductive for long-term innovation investments. Man- agers in those industries are selected for their managerial or business skills and may have little appreciation of the technical base of the company. Therefore, they are less likely to appreciate the need for long-range research and development programs (AAAS-2). In contrast, in other industries where top managers frequently have scientific and engineering backgrounds (such as the information and chemical industries), the rate of technological innova- tion continues to be reasonably high. The problem of lack of technical expertise among managers is compounded by those high-level executives who move from one business to another fairly often and do not have time to learn about the industry's technical base (AAAS-2). The situation is different in some other industrialized countries, most notably Japan, where business personnel frequently stay with a single company for long periods of time, perhaps for their entire careers, and managers often are sophisti- cated about the company's technologies and technological capabilities (AAAS-2). To the extent that these arguments are valid, they sug- gest that some of the responsibility for lagging innovation in the United States lies with American management culture. Rettig suggests that some of the counterproduc- tive management practices are also increasingly evident among Federal program managers, who are unwilling to invest Federal funds in long-term, potentially risky proj- ects. That provides a challenge to both the private and the public sectors in the coming years to reevaluate and, perhaps, change some of their managerial philosophy (AAAS-1). SOME REMEDIAL APPROACHES Having suggested, first, that there is a lag in American industrial innovation and, second, that some of the causes of lagging innovation are related to current patterns of industrial research and development activities and invest- ments, reasonable questions include: What can be done? By whom? CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ENTERPRISE Since the total innovation process begins with the genera- tion of ideas, providing additional basic concepts and methods is one way that science and technology might contribute to overcoming the lag in American industrial innovation. However, this is not the stage of the innovation process where the most dramatic problems lie; there does not seem to be a dearth of innovative ideas. Rather, the critical problems seem to lie more heavily in the later stages of the innovation process — in the stages of develop- ing those seminal ideas and converting them into marketa- ble products and processes (NRC-Obs). In addition to providing increased capacity for innova- tion through improving the innovation process, science and technology activities can have an impact upon the factors both internal and external to industrial control that presumably are contributing to the current lag in Amer- ican industrial innovation. If, for example, one cause of the innovation lag is an unwillingness of managers to invest in long-term and potentially risky research and 16 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK development programs, then American managerial prac- tices may have to be reevaluated. A wide range of disci- plines, including those concerned with organizational be- havior and with economics, can contribute concepts and methods by which to conduct that reevaluation. as well as suggesting new and more effective approaches to manage- ment (SSRC-1). Furthermore, social science methods can be used to evaluate the impact of factors external to industrial control on the innovation process. Those methods can be used effectively to evaluate such things as the relative costs and benefits of Federal regulations and Federal tax and patent policies, as well as the impacts on innovation of such factors as inflation and energy prices. The findings can then provide a basis for framing appropriate remedial steps (SSRC-1). The more general topic of the use of scientific information in decisionmaking and policymak- ing is discussed in Section E of this Chapter THE GOVERNMENTAL ROLE There is little that the Federal Government can do directly about the internal factors inhibiting innovation m the industrial enterprise. At most, government can provide or support a forum for further discussion of the problem (AAAS-1; AAAS-2). On the other hand, government can influence those factors that are external to the industrial enterprise and that are within its control. The Federal role in promoting industrial innovation has been a topic of extensive discussion over the past few years and is likely to remain so during the next 5 years. There is general agreement about three broad factors in the Federal role in industrial innovation: first, the impor- tance of the overall economic climate and future economic outlook in stimulating (or inhibiting) corporate managers in their decisions about allocating resources to innovative efforts; second, the importance of such indirect Federal incentives and disincentives as lax. patent, antitrust, and regulatory policies on corporate decisions; third, the im- portance of the Federal role in maintaining long-range research and education capabilities in the universities to complement and augment industrial capabilities and to regenerate continually the scientific and technical base on which industrial innovation ultimately rests. There is. however, considerable disagreement within this broad area of consensus about the appropriate form and extent of the government role. Some significant Federal actions aimed at improving the climate for innova- tion have recently been taken. The Department of Justice issued, in November 1980, a publication titled. Antitrust Guide Concerning Research Joint Ventures, which sets forth the standards it will use to examine the per- missibility of collaborative research ventures between businesses. Efforts have also been made to facilitate the transfer of research findings from nonindustrial laborato- ries into the industrial setting (ASTR-III). Many studies suggest the need for changes in Federal tax policies to increase industrial investments in R&D-related plant and equipment, ■* and the Economic Recovery Tax Act. signed by President Reagan in 1981. contains R&D tax credits, accelerated depreciation schedules and other incentives designed explicitly to stimulate those investments. Legis- lation pending in Congress at the end of 1981 would assign to all private sector organizations (and not just universities and small businesses as at present) the rights to patents developed under Federal R&D funding. The question of when the Federal Government should subsidize or otherwise intervene in private sector R&D is also likely to be discussed further during the next 5 years. Such a direct Federal role is generally accepted in those cases where government itself is the primary consumer — for example, in space and. most notably, defense-related industries. Indeed. Federal investments in defense-related research and development frequently stimulate activities that are also likely to have high, long-term payoffs in the civilian sector That is the case in the development of very high speed integrated circuits and research in ultrasmall electronics, artificial intelligence and robotics, and ad- vanced materials technologies (NS). Existing Federal programs that provide modest grants to small firms to stimulate innovative research are also given high marks by many industrial scientists, par- ticularly since they allow considerable latitude in integrat- ing research, development, and marketing strategies. Likewise, a modest Federal role in catalyzing university- industry collaborations may be desirable, even though a good many such collaborations are proceeding without Federal support.'" There are doubts about the appropriateness of Federal economic subsidies to stimulate specific commercial de- velopments in the civilian sector, and the Reagan Admin- istration's policy is that, in general, such direct subsidies will not be provided, except in the case of long-term, high-risk but high-potential programs in the national inter- est that industry is unable to support. Industry alone has sufficient experience to relate R&D to marketing strat- egies. Since focused Federal R&D support is almost always separated from the market, it is an ineffective device for stimulating specific, near-term commercial in- novations that can compete in the market without sus- tained subsidies. Indeed, focused Federal support on near- term development can even be counterproductive. In the few years that a large Federal energy effort has existed, for example, the push for rapid commercialization has led to a marked shift from long-term research toward short-term results. As a consequence, there has been a decline in radically new ideas and even in the applied research essential to ensure the success of existing projects (NRC-14). Moreover, direct Federal support of industrial R&D is fraught with the difficult problem of proprietary rights. For those reasons, the Reagan Administration has chosen to focus more on indirect means, such as changes Generic Policv Issues 1 7 in tax laws and regulatory policies, than on direct means to encourage industry to increase its long-term research investments and to improve the climate for commercializ- ing results of R&D activities. UNIVERSITY-INDUSTRY COOPERATION Given that industry primarily does applied and develop- mental research and will continue to do so, and given that university research is primarily basic and will continue to be so, increased linkages between industries and univer- sities have an obvious appeal in that their research is complementary, and such linkages promote the interplay between technology and science. At present, cooperative programs between industry and universities account for no more than about 5 percent of the financial support for university research. But interest in such cooperation ap- pears to have increased considerably during the past 2 or 3 years, and this may be one of the most significant current trends affecting both the science and technology base and the innovative capability of U.S. industry (NRC-14; AAAS-2). Both groups have a great deal to gain from closer cooperation. Industry can facilitate its acquisition of sci- entific sources of ideas and knowledge on which to base new technology. Industry can also easily make use of competent scientists from around the country without expanding in-house capabilities. Furthermore, such coop- eration increases the pool of potential research employees sympathetic to industry's needs, since many students would probably become involved in the cooperative re- search activities." There are also obvious benefits for universities. Indus- trial research support complementary to Federal funding could be increased. The industrial connection would also provide a broader educational experience and additional potential employment opportunities for students. In addi- tion, university faculty could be stimulated through inter- action with industrial scientists and engineers and through access to specialized equipment.'- There also are some potential disadvantages in univer- sity-industry cooperation. For example, increased in- volvement with industry should not unduly alter univer- sity research programs from their basic research orientation toward applied and development-oriented projects. On the industry side, loss of proprietary infor- mation must be guarded against. But those constraints are not insurmountable, as long as research cooperation is in the area of overlap between basic and applied research and between science and technology. Although relatively rare, cooperative research projects between individual university and industry scientists or engineers arranged by the individuals themselves have gone on for many years. The recent trend toward in- creased cooperation involves more formal commitments between institutions rather than between individuals. Forms of cooperation vary considerably and include per- sonnel exchange programs, unrestricted grants to univer- sities or university departments, contracted research, jointly owned or operated research facilities, and univer- sity-based institutes that serve industrial needs. At pres- ent, most cooperative research programs are in the engi- neering disciplines, computer science, and agriculture. There are also some cooperative research efforts in the physical sciences, and the merits of closer university- industry research links in the biomedical area are being widely discussed." One interesting development has been the support provided by several State governments to establish university research facilities that can attract co- operative funds from private industry for research on very high speed integrated circuits. The Federal Government is playing a role in encourag- ing cooperative activities in several critical areas. '^ The Department of Defense supports industry-university co- operative research on very high speed integrated circuits (Section II-B). Additionally, there is the Defense Ad- vanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) Joint Re- search Program in the materials sciences within the De- partment of Defense, and the Office of Naval Research has a Selected Opportunities Program, which specifically en- courages joint university-industry projects. The National Science Foundation provides support for cooperative re- search activities through its Industry/University Coopera- tive Research Projects and University/Industry Coopera- tive Research Centers programs. Given the potential benefits to both parties, university- industry research cooperation is almost certain to increase during the next 5 years, with or without added Federal incentives. The increased activity should permit an eval- uation of the relative effectiveness of various cooperative modes and should also provide information on which to develop guidelines about the effectiveness — and appro- priateness — of Federal support for such cooperation. An indepth review of the current state of university-industry cooperative research will be provided by the 14th Report of the National Science Board, due for release in the fall of 1982. REFERENCES I. "The Nation's Economy." President's Address to the Nation. Febru- ary 5. 1981. 2. Slinuilaring Technological Progress. Washington. DC. Commit- tee for Economic Development, January 1980, 3. Edward Mansfield. "Basic Research and Productivity Increase in Manufacturing." American Economic Revien- (December 1980). pp. 863-873. 18 THE HVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 4. Edward F. Denison. Accounting for Slower Economic Growrh. Washington. DC: Brookings Institution. 1979 5. U.S. Department of Commerce. U.S. Advisory Commiitee on Industrial Innovation: Final Report. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Govern- ment FYinting Othce. 1979. 6. Mansfield, op cit. (Ref. 3). 7. See. for example. Henry G. Grabowski and John M, Vernon. The Impact of Regulation on Industrial Innovation. Washington. D.C.: National Academy of Sciences. 1979. 8. Edward D. David. "Industrial Research in America: Challenge of New Synthesis." Science. Vol. 209 (July 4. 1980). pp. 133-139. 9. Industrial Innovation and Public Policy Options. Washington. D.C.: National Academy of Engineering. 1980. 10. National Commission on Research. Industry and the Universities. Washington. D.C.: National Commission on Research. 1980. See also Denis J. Prager and Gilbert S. Omenn. "Research. Innovation, and University-Industry Linkages." Science. Vol. 207 (January 25. 1980). pp. 379-384. 11. National Commission on Research, op. cit (Ref 101. 12. Ibid. 13. Donalds. Fredrickson. "Biomedical Research in the 1980s." Wcm' England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 304 (February 26. 1981). pp. 509-517. 14. Universityllndustry Cooperation. New York. NY: New York Uni- versity. Center for Science and Technology Policy. June 1980. D. The International Context of U.S. Science and Technology Increasingly, the products of science an(i technology force issues that are traditionally domestic in character into an international context and also place new issues on the international agenda (AAAS-6). During the next 5 years. events and trends outside the United States will likewise have impacts both on the conduct of U.S. science and technology and on the relationships of science and tech- nology to U.S. domestic problems. Such trends and developments can conveniently be divided into four categories: ( 1 ) Developments in science and technology that the U . S . science and technology enterprises, and therefore the United States, can use to their own advantage; (2) Developments and trends in science and technology and in science and technology policy that could affect the competitive economic, diplomatic, or military standing of the United States; (3) Problems and opportunities of a transnational charac- ter related to advances in science and technology that are likely to affect the United States or the U.S. science and technology enterprise; and (4) Global problems affecting international stability that U.S. science and technology might help resolve. Developments and trends in the first two categories raise the broad problem of how best to balance the desir- ability for international cooperation in science and tech- nology with the need for the United States to maintain its competitive position next to countries whose science and technology are roughly comparable to ours. The two categories primarily involve relations between the United States and the industrialized democracies and between the United States and the U.S.S.R. Examples of problems in the third category include those associated with international resource management. the global environment, and international information and communications capabilities. They involve U.S. relations with all of the industrialized countries and. additionally, with a number of less developed countries that have some advanced science and technology capabilities, including Mexico. Brazil, India, Pakistan. Korea, and several OPEC countries. Problems in the fourth category are related to the peren- nial, overriding issue of world poverty. They include population and the adequacy of world food and energy supplies and involve U.S. relations with all countries of the world. U.S. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RELATIVE TO OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED DEMOCRACIES Human and financial resources available for the conduct of R&D remain considerably greater in the United States than in any of the leading industrialized democracies, principally the Western European countries, Canada, and Japan. However, several of those countries are closing the gap in terms of total investments, and, significantly, in- vestments in those countries are concentrated in areas closely related to productivity and economic growth (Sl-80). In addition, U.S. preeminence in both science and technology is being increasingly challenged from abroad (See Sections I-B and 1-C). Whether the gaps will continue to narrow or whether, on the contrary, investments in R&D elsewhere will de- cline or plateau at lower levels than in the United States (as they have in the United Kingdom and France) cannot be answered at this time. Certainly the other countries have also been experiencing economic problems that may af- fect their abilities to maintain and develop science and technology bases. However, in view of the current eco- Generic Poller Issues IQ nomic situation in the United States, the decreasing U.S. advantage in science and technology relative to many of the industrialized democracies is bound to be of con- tinuing concern during the next 5 years. One factor that could have an appreciable influence on the competitive economic position of the United States is the effect on industry of U.S. environmental, health, and safety regulations. Since regulatory policies in this coun- try have in the past differed from policies in other indus- trialized countries, the resultant additions to production costs in the United States may in some cases place Amer- ican industries at a competitive disadvantage (AAAS-6). A notable example is the American pharmaceuticals in- dustry, which is unable to market certain products in the United States because of stringent testing procedures and, as a result, has been increasing its foreign R&D invest- ments more rapidly than its domestic investments (NRC-14). President Reagan's regulatory reform policies are expected to help address this problem. There may also be temptations during the next 5 years to erect barriers against foreign imports to protect certain endangered U.S. industries. However, because of result- ing decreases in the incentives for industrial innovation that normally accompany competition, such a course for protecting against competition might lead to decreases in needed R&D investments, with undesirable long-range economic consequences (AAAS-6). Reciprocally, the issue of limiting U.S. exports of high technology to the industrialized democracies is likely to be debated. Since the export of U.S. -developed technol- ogy can increase the relative competitive positions of other countries, an important question is: Does the mone- tary return to the United States for exported technology adequately reflect the likely long-range costs in terms of increased foreign competition? In approaching an answer however, it is important to note that much technology is transferred through American-owned subsidiaries in for- eign countries and is therefore difficult to control. In addition, any protectionist measures that could lead to countermeasures against this country must take into ac- count the important contribution to the U.S. balance of trade from the exports of R&D-intensive industries at a time when non-R&D-intensive industries have been regis- tering trade deficits (SI-78). While technological competition with the industrial democracies clearly is increasing, so are opportunities for cooperation in a range of science and technology ac- tivities. Incentives for such cooperation in increasingly expensive R&D projects are likely to increase. The sci- ence and technology capabilities of many of the indus- trialized countries are roughly comparable to those of the United States, as are some of the economic problems they face. Inflation rates were generally higher in all those countries in the late 1970s than they were during the previous decade. In addition, rising energy costs and the continuing threat of interruptions in imported petroleum supplies are serious problems.' A recent report of the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD) highlighted a num- ber of problems related directly to science and technology that are shared by the industrialized democracies:' (1) There is concern about an overall slowdown in indus- trial innovation, productivity, and economic growth and recognition that a strong capacity for industrial innovation will be increasingly important in the fu- ture. Consequently, the desirability for better coordi- nation of R&D with the total system of engineering, manufacturing, and marketing and for integrating sci- ence and technology policy more closely with general economic policy is widely recognized. In the United States, recent tax and patent policy changes are ex- pected to foster industrial innovation. (2) Broadly, there is recognition that external social fac- tors may limit the potential contribution of science and technology to economic growth and social ad- vance. There is concern, for example, about the effects of environmental, health, and safety regula- tions on industrial innovation and productivity, and there is recognition that disparities in regulatory pol- icies among the industrialized countries need to be minimized. As mentioned earlier, the Administra- tion's regulatory reform initiatives are expected to ease the burden of regulations on America's industries. (3) There is general agreement that the financial and human resources for conducting R&D are likely to be constrained during the 1980s. Hence, there is recog- nition of a need for improving both project selection and evaluation procedures to optimize the use of avail- able resources. (4) Given those resource constraints, there is concern about the danger of providing insufficient long-term investments in research capabilities. Considerable concern exists about the decreasing growth rate of academic research and the consequent recognition of the desirability to take steps to preserve support for basic research. There is a growing recognition that a great deal of fundamental research in engineering shares common characteristics with traditional basic research in science and, therefore, needs similar lev- els of support and protection. International science and technology cooperation could help alleviate some of the problems. Cooperative govem- ment-to-govemment programs with other industrialized countries are especially beneficial to the United States when the cost of solving problems is high and when the problem area is remote enough from commercial applica- tion possibilities so that proprietary considerations do not 20 THE HIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK dominate. Examples of such activities now ongoing in- clude advanced energy research and development and space research. The United States and Japan are cooperat- ing in a number of advanced energy-related research pro- grams, especially in fusion research, and we cooperate with several other countries in advanced fusion R&D (ENERGY). In addition to such official bilateral and multilateral programs, cooperation between individual American sci- entists or private firms and their foreign counterparts should continue to provide opportunities for stimulating advances in U.S. science and technology. It is particularly noteworthy that the considerable investments of U.S. firms in R&D abroad result in benefits to the U.S. econo- my as well. There may also be some important lessons for the U.S. science and technology enterprise to learn from the expe- riences of other industrialized countries. For example, in France, West Germany, and. to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom, a considerably higher proportion of basic re- search is carried out in national laboratories and non- university research institutes than in the United States. where the bulk of such research is done in universities or laboratories managed by universities. Indeed, there are few U.S. counterparts to the nonuniversity system of research institutes supported by the French and West German governments; our national laboratories are among the few examples. Those laboratories and in- stitutes, as well as European research universities, are guaranteed base levels of research support from their governments, and those base levels can be augmented by special project grants. In contrast, about 60 percent of academic research in the United States is supported solely through the project grant system. Research funding typ- ically is for longer time periods in those European coun- tries than in the United States. These factors can provide the stability required for carrying out long-term specula- tive research projects. Moreover, longer term funding and/or greater provision of base support reduces the ad- ministrative burden on individual scientists (NRC-13). On the other hand, there are disadvantages to the Euro- pean system and obvious hazards would accompany try- ing to use the European system as a guide for long-range planning in the United States. For example, the integra- tion of teaching and research has been essential to the U.S. academic system, and any weakening of those links should not be undertaken lightly. Moreover, European specialists are themselves concerned about the declining growth rates of academic research, indicating that they have not yet solved the problem of support to their own satisfaction.' However, since the pressures on university research as it is presently conducted in the United States are likely to persist, it may be worth investigating the European experience in greater detail to determine which elements, if any, could be transferable (NRC-13). U.S. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RELATIVE TO THE U.S.S.R." Together, the investments of the United States and the Soviet Union account for a large majority of total world investments in science and technology. The Soviet Union has long recognized that progress in science and technol- ogy is essential to both military and economic development. Available information suggests that the resources com- mitted to conducting science and technology in the Soviet Union are quite extensive. The ratio of national R&D expenditures to the Gross National Product in the U.S.S.R. rose above that of the United States in 1967, and it now is the largest in the world {SI-80). Cost estimates for military research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) expenditures indicate that the Soviet Union has probably exceeded annual U.S. expenditures in those areas during each of the past 10 years and that RDT&E enjoys an increasing share of Soviet military outlays (NS). On the other hand, overall U.S. R&D expenditures still exceed those of the U.S.S.R., and U.S. civilian R&D expenditures are much larger than those of the Soviet Union. The human resources committed to science and technology activities in the Soviet Union also appear relatively more extensive, although the emphasis is again on military R&D (Sl-80). Soviet scientists and engineers have made impressive contributions in a number of fields. They include, among the fundamental sciences: mathematics, theoretical phys- ics, astronomy, and accelerator development. Most nota- bly, the U.S.S.R. has made significant strides in both civil and military space applications and in applying R&D to national defense. While the United States maintains its leadership in most of the basic technologies critical to defense, the Soviet Union is closing the gap in several key technologies, including electro-optical sensors, guidance and navigation, hydroacoustic technology, optics, and propulsion (NS). However, in spite of its impressive achievements in these and a few other areas, the overall results of the massive Soviet commitment to science and technology have been less than might be expected. The U.S.S.R.'s failure to apply science and technology to increasing agricultural productivity is well known, and the U.S.S.R. is far behind the United States in the development and use of computer and communications technologies. More generally, the Soviet Union has been relatively unsuccess- ful in exploiting R&D for innovations in manufacturing industries and for purposes of economic growth. American (and Soviet) analysts have pondered the causes of this disappointing performance for years. Dur- ing the Stalin years, the need for scientists to demonstrate ideological purity inhibited advances in several scientific fields, most notably genetics.^ The present harrassment of Generic Policy Issues 2 1 dissident scientists by the Soviet government and the overall climate of suspicion and secrecy also affect scien- tific advances. However, the problem of using R&D re- sults appears to be most closely related to the nature of the Soviet economy. That the economy is centrally planned has created rigid institutional barriers between the R&D sector and the industrial sector, and the absence of strong economic driving forces is inhibiting innovation and eco- nomic growth." Integrating R&D planning with general economic and, particularly, industrial planning and devising means for better selection and evaluation of science and technology goals have preoccupied top Soviet leadership since the early 1970s.' While figures on Soviet productivity directly comparable to U.S. and Western European data are un- available, little progress seems to have been made in the U.S.S.R. However, there are indications that the Soviet Union is becoming far more adept in implementing ad- vanced R&D for military purposes (NS). The Soviet government has recognized the need for a high degree of science and technology literacy among the general labor force and has instituted a general curriculum reform at primary and secondary levels that focuses heav- ily on science and mathematics. While the extent to which those reforms have been implemented is not clear, and while it is too early to evaluate their effects on the quality of the labor force, U.S. specialists agree that, at least on paper, Soviet precollege science and mathematics educa- tion is the best in the world.** The Soviet Union also shares with the rest of the world concerns about energy development. The country has considerable reserves of oil and natural gas and, at pres- ent, exports both, particularly to the Warsaw Pact nations. The Soviet Union also has vast coal resources, a small fraction of which it is exporting. However, it has a long way to go to realize the full potential of those reserves for direct use or as the basis of a synthetic fuels industry. The implications of Soviet trends in science and tech- nology for the United States and its science and technol- ogy enterprise are neither simple nor, as of yet, clear. American policymakers and individual American scien- tists are frequently faced with difficult decisions about the appropriate degree and form of science and technology cooperation with the Soviet Union. For example, there is the question of high-technology exports to the Soviet Union. While the U.S.S.R. should clearly be denied access to specific advanced military technologies, the question of whether or not to export technology to the U.S.S.R. in other cases is less clear. Similarly, in the case of bilateral scientific exchanges with the Soviet Union, the question of reciprocity is central. While the Soviets do excellent work in many fields, American scientists have often been frustrated by the far greater controls and secrecy of Soviet society. Access to the best scientists and facilities in the Soviet Union has often been blocked even when the overall political climate was favorable. Soviet scientists are not allowed to travel freely, nor are most national scientific conferences held in the U.S.S.R. open to Western scien- tists. Many U.S. scientists have also faced difficult per- sonal choices on whether to participate in exchanges with the Soviet Union, when fellow Soviet scientists, like Nobel Laureate Andrei Sakharov, have been exiled or imprisoned. There is a clear linkage between the scientific ex- changes and the overall political relationship with the Soviet Union. This was most clearly demonstrated after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the exile of Sakharov, but there had been earlier linkage in 1976 at the peak of Soviet proxy intervention in Angola and in 1978 with the trials of Soviet scientists Orlov and Scharansky. The Soviet Union's role in abetting the suppression of the Solidarity Movement by the Polish government in December 1981 provides the most recent evidence of the need for caution in predicting the future course of all interactions, including science and technology interac- tions, with the U.S.S.R. The prospects for the next 5 years will depend on the overall political climate and on the degree of reciprocity in the ongoing exchanges. TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES A number of transnational issues associated with advances in and applications of science and technology are likely to intrude themselves on the U.S. domestic agenda during the next 5 years. They include resource development and management, the global environment, and transborder information flow. RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT Relative depletion of oil and natural resources in the United States and the uneven geographic distribution of certain essential materials have resulted in the Nation's vulnerability to limitations or interruptions in the supplies of rubber and some primary metals, as well as oil. Other industrialized countries and some middle-tier countries of the third world share those problems. As discussed in Sections II-E and F, short-term re- source vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies do not lend themselves readily to science and technology solutions; they generally are due to political and economic factors. However, science and technology can play major roles in the longer term. Applications of R&D to resource exploration, recovery, processing, and use could offer a 22 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK major part of the solution to domestic — and interna- tional — resource supply problems. Given resource dis- tribution patterns and the long leadtimes and large capital investments required to exploit science and technology to this end, it is not feasible for a single country to carry the burdens alone. Therefore, a commitment of R&D re- sources to those objectives — by U.S. industries in concert with those of other industrialized nations — might be one profitable approach to be taken during the next 5 years (AAAS-6). Another important resource management problem re- quiring international attention during the next 5 years is the rapid disappearance of tropical forests that are being cleared in less developed countries to provide more land for agriculture and other commercial purposes. The con- tinued degradation of the world's tropical forests is par- ticularly serious, since reforestation is not usually possi- ble. Continuing loss of tropical forests would accelerate the rate of extinction of tropical plants and animals and undercut needed water development projects in certain countries (Section II-F). It would also affect the avail- ability of certain woods of importance to the United States and, by decreasing the amount of carbon dioxide reab- sorbed from the atmosphere, could contribute to global changes in weather and climate. In December 1980, a U.S. Goverment Interagency Task Group produced a re- port on tropical forests that defines several immediate scientific and policy goals. Recommended R&D ap- proaches include a world analysis of the rates and causes of tropical forest loss, further study of ecosystem dynam- ics and forest management techniques, and major interna- tional programs to inventory, evaluate, classify, and cata- log unique forest plant and animal types (lA). A final example of essential transnational resource management and development problems concerns protec- tion of the world's arid lands. Since most of those areas are in the poorer countries of the world, research aimed at the control of desertification has consequences for avoiding famine and human dislocations and can, therefore, be classified as a global rather than as a transnational con- cern. However, there are also many areas in the United States threatened by desertification and, therefore, a good deal of arid land research has implications that could lead to better general land management in this country. Such research also could have important consequences for Mexico, which, as far as U.S. interests are concerned, is one of the most important of the middle-tier countries. The United States and Mexico have executed a joint agreement on Arid Lands Management and Desertifica- tion Control, which establishes a joint research program to combat desertification along their common border Positive results of activities taken under the auspices of the agreement should emerge during the next 5 years (lA; ASTR-W). INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Pollution of the oceans and the consequent threat to their living resources will continue as a transnational concern for the indefinite future. The Intergovernmental Maritime Organization Marine Pollution Convention articulates in- ternational enforcement and protective procedures to con- trol vessel-related pollution, most notably oil spills. However, since 90 percent of the pollution of the marine environment arises from land-based sources, a wider ranging set of international conventions will be needed to control the ocean environment (lA). No dramatic effect can be expected during the next 5 years, since establishing control will be a long-range, multifaceted endeavor But small steps can be taken and are essential. Pollution of the atmosphere is a second transnational environmental problem requiring continuing attention. The problem of acid rain (or more properly acid precipita- tion) associated with burning fossil fuels is discussed in further detail in Section Il-G. There is marked concern in the Scandinavian countries about the effects of pollutants from the United Kingdom, and there is some evidence that acid rain from U.S. sources may be causing ecological damage in Canada. Therefore, the transnational at- mospheric pollution problem requires focused attention and no doubt will be discussed a great deal during the next 5 years (ASTR-III. AAAS-6; ENVIRON). Potential depletion of the ozone layer due to emissions of fluorocarbons and other industrial materials, with pos- sible resultant damage to plant, animal, and human life, is another serious although much more long-term problem. Additional research on the effects of industrial emissions on the ozone layer and, consequently, on living organisms is progressing. The results should provide means both for a better assessment of the hazards involved and for the eventual development of an effective, equitable interna- tional regulatory regime, although no dramatic progress is anticipated during the next 5 years (lA). Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon diox- ide from all forms of fossil fuel combustion and. perhaps, from deforestation could ultimately become the most se- rious of all atmospheric pollution problems. It could be exacerbated by excessive deforestation and the resultant decrease in the capacity of the earth to reabsorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide could raise Earth's surface temperature sufficiently to shift world patterns of agri- cultural production and. by partially melting the polar ice caps, raise ocean levels appreciably. However, since there are considerable uncertainties about the details of the complex mechanisms involved, there is considerable un- certainty about what the consequences of different levels of fossil fuel combustion will be. Hence, further research on atmospheric processes and on world climate patterns is required. The next 5 years could be critical ones for Generic Policv Issues 23 carrying out the research needed as a base for decision- making about how to deal with this problem (ENERGY; lA). GLOBAL ISSUES The final set of international issues likely to have an impact on U.S. science and technology in the future arises not so much from the results of science and technology, but from the continued expectations of less developed countries that science and, more particularly, technology can provide a key to their economic development. That expectation remains strong despite the fact that at present only about 5 percent of the world's science and technology resources are directly focused on problems of world de- velopment (AAAS-6). Three large related problems constrain economic de- velopment in the third world: continued population growth, rising pressures on the world food supply system, and increasing world demand for petroleum. Science and technology have made and can continue to make impor- tant contributions to relieving those constraints and, per- haps, buying time for economic development. POPULATION The extraordinary force of recent changes and present trends in the world's population has no precedent in human experience (NRC-I; AAAS-9). World population increased by 1.9 billion, or over 75 percent, from 1950 to 1980 (Figure 7). The rate of population growth is now declining modestly, but it remains at an extraordinarily high level by all standards of past experience. For exam- ple, the population of Asia in 1980 (2.558 billion) was slightly larger than what the total world population was in 1950 (2.513 billion). Current projections of the world population in the year 2000 cluster about 6 billion, a 40 percent increase above the current level (AAAS-9). The ultimate steady-state world population would occur when a situation of fertility replacement (the so-called two child family) is reached, and current projections are that the world population will stabilize in the late 21st century at around 9 billion people (NRC-1). Even with the uncer- tainty in these population projections, their implications for the world of the future could be very serious, par- ticularly in terms of food, energy, minerals, and interna- tional security (AAAS-9). The severity of the effects of world population growth is dependent, however, on con- comitant levels of scientific and technological advance. For example, current progress in world agriculture and industry suggests that world food and other production could double in the next century. If those advances do occur, one could be relatively secure about the overall population/resource ratio for an ultimate 9 billion people (NRC-I). 10 K 6 ■D a. O a. 1950 1955 1960 196S 1970 1975 1980 YEAR 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 7. Population (Billions) m the World, 1950 to 2000. Note: Trends are given as they were assessed in 1978. 1950-1980 data are estimates. 1985-2000 are projections. 1980 data are projections from mid-1975 data, but may be viewed as best available estimates for 1980. Source: W. Parker Mauldin, "Population Trends and Prospects," Sci- ence. Vol. 209 (July 4, 1980), p. 156. But, such optimism may not be justified when individu- al countries and regions are considered. Given expected technological advances. Earth's overall carrying capacity probably will not be exceeded, at least through the 21st century. But, there are now and will continue to be severe population/resource problems in some countries, par- ticularly the less developed ones. Thus, a global approach to the relationships between population and resources is inappropriate; cases should be considered individually. Bangladesh, for example, currently has little prospect of attaining an acceptable balance between its population on the one hand, and its land and other resources on the other (NRC-1). In addition, migration rates within some coun- tries, primarily from rural to urban areas, are increasing dramatically. In the less developed countries, urban growth rates are about double the high national growth rates. Unprecedented urban agglomerations will appear in the next 20 years, suggesting awesome problems in the quality of urban life. International migration — legal or illegal, temporary or permanent, political or economic — is also growing, implying major dislocations and greater demands for food, mineral resources, and energy in some countries (NRC-1). In short, what is needed over the coming years is recognition of, and attention to, the unequal distribution among independent nations of population and resources, and the possible role of science and technology in mitigat- ing the potential negative impacts of that unequal distribu- tion (NRC-1). The question of the appropriate U.S. role in that and other aspects of world science and technology development is discussed below and in more detail in the accompanying Source Volumes (NRC-1; AAAS-6; AAAS-7; AAAS-9). 24 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK FOOD AND AGRICULTURE Improved worldwide agricultural production will be re- quired both to supply needed amounts of food and as a central aspect in an effective worldwide attack on such related issues as malnutrition, poverty, inflation, unem- ployment, and population pressures. The United States is the world "s greatest producer, consumer, and exporter of food, and that agricultural capacity is important to Amer- ica's current international economic position (AAAS-8; AGR). Many analysts argue, however, that the United States cannot carry indefinitely the major burden of food production for the world. American land resources that can be allocated to food production are limited and can rapidly be depleted if misused, and continued high levels of agricultural exports could raise domestic food prices to unacceptable levels. In response to those constraints, the United States can play an important role in increasing the food production independence of other nations through scientific and technological cooperation, thereby reliev- ing some of the political and economic stresses that de- stabilize international relationships ( AAAS-6; AAAS-8 ). Increasing agricultural productivity in the less developed countries will be difficult given the severe constraints imposed by expensive energy and limited land and water resources. It will require the development and use of new technologies that provide maximum productivity for a given set of input conditions and that take into account potential environmental impacts (AAAS-8; AGR). That topic is discussed in greater detail in Section II-I. The important contributions that basic research in biol- ogy could make to solving a range of agricultural produc- tion problems deserve particular mention. They include development of more water-efficient, salt-tolerant, and stress-resistant plants; development of plants capable of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere; and methods for effective pest and disease control. Revelle notes, in this connection, that the field of biology is in its infancy (compared with physics and chemistry, for example) in the sense that most fundamental discoveries remain to be made." Investments needed to conduct basic research in biology are also considerably less than for the physical sciences. Those three circumstances — the applicability of biology to agriculture, the relative newness of the field, and the relatively modest investments required to pursue it — commend biology as a promising discipline for de- velopment in third world laboratories and in institutions in the industrialized countries that seek to optimize their contributions to economic development. ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES The energy problem is particularly severe for those less developed countries that have no appreciable fossil fuel resources. Rising petroleum prices have placed many of them under crushing burdens of debt and have forced them to curtail development plans. By the same token, import- ing coal from one of the major potential future exporters (Australia, the United States, the U.S.S.R,, or the Peo- ple's Republic of China) would be feasible only if exports were sufficient to earn the currency needed to pay for it. Nuclear power may be an option for some, but not all. middle-tier countries. Thus, except for a few special cases, solar energy may seem to be the primary available option. But, even that option is limited, since the poorer countries are unlikely to be able to afford the sophisticated material-intensive solar devices that may ultimately provide appreciable energy in the industrialized countries. Those circumstances lead to the conclusion that using biomass for energy may be the best hope for the fossil fuel deficient countries of the third world.'" Indeed, many of the steps that could be taken to improve food production, including investments in basic research in biology, could also facilitate development of local biomass industries. However, development of such industries even on a small scale would divert labor and, no doubt, some land from food production. While the effects of those dislocations can be mitigated by careful planning, it is unlikely that the energy dilemma facing the world's poorest countries can be resolved without causing some additional problems. U.S. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND WORLD DEVELOPMENT A variety of mechanisms exist for direct technology trans- fer to less developed or developing countries: some in- volve private corporations, some are based on bilateral U.S. Agency for International Development (AID) assist- ance, and others involve transnational enterprises and international agencies. However, in order for the develop- ing countries to make effective use of transferred tech- nologies, they need the capability to set realistic objec- tives, to negotiate technical contracts, to weigh subtle choices among technologies, and, in general, to be aware of technological or economic options. That is, developing countries require a significant internal scientific and tech- nological capability. Acquiring that capability can, in the long run, enhance economic performance. This has been demonstrated by such countries as India and Korea, where having sufficiently well developed science and technology infrastructures has allowed them to adapt and use acquired technologies effectively (AAAS-6; AAAS-7). The United States has the potential to provide the type of continued assistance that will permit those countries to develop and strengthen their own science and technology capabilities (AAAS-7). In doing so, the United States may also be able to strengthen its bilateral relations with specific countries, as it has done with nations as diverse as Korea, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the People's Republic of China. Means that are available for fostering indigenous capabilities include training programs for technical per- sonnel, assistance in establishing local institutions to eval- uate and use acquired technological capabilities, and fos- tering local science and technology programs. The United States has participated in a range of those assistance efforts over the past 20 years, as have many other indus- trialized countries. These levels of effort have been spon- sored under both public and private sector auspices. However, many analysts believe that a greater commit- ment to those ends is demanded of the industrialized countries (AAAS-6; AAAS-7). Achieving effective technology transfer is not without difficulties. In addition to the problem of msufficient indigenous scientific and technical capabilities, there are problems related to the nature of the technology to be transferred. Technologies suitable for, or appropriate to. problem solving in the industrialized nations may not be appropriate for use in the developing countries. In many cases, adoption of technologies that are routinely applied in industrial countries can cause major social and political Generic Policy Issues 25 disruptions in the developing countries, such as increased unemployment. Therefore, technologies frequently must be modified or adapted to local needs and conditions, and both determining the appropriate form and, then, achiev- ing the technology transfer can be difficult tasks (AAAS-7). There also are major legal/political constraints on tech- nology transfer from the industrialized to the less de- veloped nations. One major problem concerns proprietary rights. Most industrialized democracies are signatories to international conventions governing questions of who owns the patents to technologies. However, the less de- veloped countries frequently are not. Therefore, patent rights often appear to have no force in the less developed countries, and that can impede the technology transfer process. Constraints on technology transfer will require continued debate and action in the coming years before such transfer can be accomplished both expeditiously and equitably (AAAS-7). REFERENCES 1. National Academy of Sciences. Energy in Transition: 1985-2010. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1980. 2. Technical Change and Economic Policy. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 19S0. See also NAS-13. 3. Ibid. 4. Unless otherwise stated, data and trends noted m this subsection are adapted from Paul M. Cocks. Science Policy: USAiUSSR. Volume II. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, June 1980. 5. Loren R. Graham. "The Development of Science and Policy in the Soviet Union," Science Policies in Industrialized Nations. Edited bv T Dixon Long and Christopher Wright. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1975, 6. See. for example. Cocks, op. cit. (Ref 4|. 7. Ibid. 8. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education. Science and Engineering Education for the /yW> aiul Beyond. Wash- ington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1980. 9. Roger Revelle. "Energy Dilemma in Asia: The Needs for Research and Development," Science. Vol. 209 (July 4, 1980), pp 164-174. 10 Ibid, E. Science, Technology, and Policymaking The empirical data derived from scientific research, cou- pled with the conceptual and analytic tools developed by various scientific disciplines, can provide a systematic means to help define and illuminate many current and emergent problems on the national policy agenda ( A A AS- Obs.). Many, though by no means all, of those problems are associated with science and technology themselves. Additionally, science and technology can contribute con- cepts or constructs that lend precision to decisions and to views of the world about which decisions must be made, although, of course, science and technology cannot provide a complete basis for decisions about issues that involve value choices and political judgments (SSRC-1). Since science cannot provide the sole basis for policy decisions, methodological and policy debates are likely to continue to surround the application of scientific concepts and methods to the assessment of national issues; first, because there are always residual uncertainties associated with attempts to measure, interpret, or predict the future course of the complex physical, biological, ecological, or social systems associated with national policy; second, because measurements themselves and (particularly in the case of the social and behavioral sciences) the interpreta- tions that emerge from them often touch upon or challenge deeply held individual or social values. Despite the limitations of science as a policymaking tool, three convergent trends suggest the increasing im- portance of devising more systematic and broadly accept- able ways to use information derived from the full range of the natural, social, and engineering sciences in the deci- sionmaking and policymaking processes. First, both the time frames and the financial resources 26 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK needed for research and development have been increas- ing, as has been the importance of science- and technol- ogy-based innovation to our national well-being. Hence, better scientific information and better knowledge about its potential application will be needed to make informed decisions about the allocation of resources for research and development activities in both the public and the private sectors (NRC-Obs.). Some general issues associ- ated with the allocation of resources for research and development have been treated in Sections B and C of this chapter, and others are highlighted on a case-by-case basis in Chapter II. More broadly, scientific data, constructs, and meth- odologies have become essential tools for making policy decisions in areas not so directly related to scientific and technological activities and developments. Such concepts as externalities, identity crisis. Gross National Product, assimilation, the hidden economy, and unanticipated con- sequences have provided the basis for organizing the empirical data needed for assessing the social and eco- nomic condition of the country and for forecasting proba- ble consequences of various policy alternatives (SSRC-I ). The second notable trend is the phenomenal expansion in both the amount of available information and the elec- tronic capabilities for handling and providing access to it. As the infonnation revolution penetrates more deeply into the U.S. social and economic fabric, issues related to the production, transmission, and use of the expanded and more accessible pool of information, including scientific and technological information, will become increasingly important (AAAS-1: AAAS-3; AAAS-6). Finally, there appears to be a growing perception that the regulatory mechanisms adopted during the 1970s to manage the risks that are inevitable outgrowths of our science- and technology-based industrial society may in some cases be inadequate and in others even coun- terproductive to achieving desired social goals. The role of the Federal Government in the regulatory sphere has in itself become an important policy issue. Thus, the need for better infonnation and for improved analytical tools to assess, compare, and manage risks as a basis for develop- ing regulations and to evaluate the costs and benefits of alternative regulatory strategies is likely to become in- creasingly pressing (AAAS-I). The rest of this section focuses on those two latter trends and associated sets of issues: the availability of information, and the use of scientific and technological infonnation in the regulatory sphere. society, were treated extensively in the first Five-Year Outlook on science and technology and in its Source Volume.' Both the rapidity and the flexibility with which infonnation of all sorts can be produced, processed, trans- mitted, stored, and retrieved have continued to grow dur- ing the past 2 years. That is particularly true of scientific and technological information. Examples of new oppor- tunities afforded by the expanding information ca- pabilities appear throughout this report. CONSTRAINTS ON THE AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION While the total amount of available scientific infonnation will continue to grow rapidly, specific types of informa- tion needed by decisionmakers may not be readily avail- able. Scientific information is the result of scientific research, be it laboratory research, or survey or field research. Therefore, the availability of scientific informa- tion is constrained by the same internal factors ( such as the state of knowledge in particular critical fields) and exter- nal factors (such as available financial, personnel, and equipment resources) that constrain scientific research itself. Regulations on scientific activity are. in some cases, another important constraint on the availability of infor- mation that could be particularly useful for decisionmak- ing. Overly stringent informed consent protocols may, for example, limit the availability of cntical survey or field research data (see below). Likewise, regulations designed to protect the confidentiality of individual medical records may limit the availability of data needed for epidemiologi- cal studies. The availability of information for decisionmaking and policymaking is also constrained by data management problems. The rate at which both the production of scien- tific information and the information-handling ca- pabilities have been growing qualifies as an information explosion. That situation has, in turn, increased the diffi- culties of aggregating needed information in a form useful for decisionmaking and policymaking. The sheer bulk of available information poses problems in sorting out the more usable, better quality materials from those of lesser quality. Current information-handling technologies do not have that capability and may even exacerbate the problem since they frequently "'dilute'" information for easy use. Some observers have characterized the whole set of prob- lems, which can make the effective use of scientific and technological information difficult, as "information pol- lution" (AAAS-3). MAXIMIZING THE AVAILABILITY AND UTILITY OF INFORMATION FOR DECISIONMAKING AND POLICYMAKING The rapid convergence of computer and communications technologies that constitutes the electronics revolution. and the effects of that revolution on several sectors of CONCEPTUAL ISSUES In some important respects, the problem of maximizing the availability of scientific information for policymaking and decisionmaking begins with the problem of maintain- ing and strengthening the science and technology base. However, not all scientific infoimation is directly usable for helping to define and illuminate national policy issues, in part because the goal of research in many disciplines such as mathematics, radio astronomy, high-energy phys- ics, and molecular biology is to obtain a deeper under- standing of nature rather than to provide reliable informa- tion and tools to assist in decisionmaking outside the disciplines themselves. There are. however, scientific dis- ciplines in which principal research goals are directly related to improving the quality of the infonnation needed for weighing policy options. Survey methodologies, for example, provide means for sampling the characteristics, actions, or opinions of large groups of people. By yielding information about such things as voter preferences, unemployment rates, or the market intentions of consumers, the results of such sur- veys can aid decisionmaking in both the public and the private sectors. Commercial enterprises, for example, make heavy use of survey data and demographic projec- tions in deciding where to locate offices or retail stores and in choosing products to produce and the marketing strat- egies to follow (SSRC-1; SSRC-3). The Federal Govern- ment, in turn, often uses survey data as a base for the allocation of funds or as a basis for designing public programs (SSRC-3). Likewise, during the past 20 years, a great deal of effort has been focused on developing sound sets of data about the current status of various institutions, such as industrial firms, educational institutions, and the government, and about the ways in which their status changes from year to year. Collectively, those social indicators provide a broad view both about the state of society at a given time and about its rates and forms of change. For example, govern- ment officials, businessmen, and the larger public fre- quently are asked to address problems associated with current and changing patterns in such societal elements as crime, the birth rate, health care, and employment oppor- tunities. Having the necessary factual information about the current status and rate of change of such conditions is crucial, both to making informed and appropriate choices among options and to framing effective policies (SSRC-3). Such indicators are regularly applied to the science and technology enterprise and are published biannually in the National Science Board's series. Science Indicators. Those indicators are used to inform decisionmakers about the effects of science and technology activities on areas of national concern, such as industrial productivity, and, reciprocally, about the impacts of public policy upon science and technology. That is, they can provide a basis for framing science policy and for maximizing the contri- bution of science and technology efforts to the national well-being (SSRC-5). Additionally, related methodologies are frequently used to predict and evaluate the effectivess of planned policy actions, and they can aid in the design, conduct, and interpretation of the results of pilot projects. For Generic Policy Issues 27 example, the Federal Government has sponsored experi- mental pilot programs to evaluate, using social science concepts and methods, the potential impacts of such pro- posed national efforts as income maintenance, health insurance, and housing subsidies (SSRC-I). The evalua- tion of the effects of Federal regulations is a special, important case, as discussed in the next subsection. SCIENCE AND REGULATORY PROCESSES On February 17, 1981, the President issued an Executive Order calling for greater precision in assessing both the need for, and the potential impacts of, a broad class of Federal regulations.- Subsequently, the President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief was established under the chairmanship of the Vice President to conduct a broad assessment of Federal regulatory laws and policies. Those actions reflected a widespread opinion that the Federal Government overreacted during the 1970s in framing reg- ulations to eliminate or minimize risks to health, safety, and the environment associated with, or resulting from, scientific and technological activity. While few would question the desirability for some controls over par- ticularly hazardous products and processes, there is evi- dence that some Federal regulations have had negative impacts on industrial innovation and on advances in sci- ence and technology (Sections I-B and I-C). The Presi- dent's February 1981 order requires the positive and nega- tive effects of regulations to be weighed against each other. Whatever the specific recommendations of the Pres- ident's Task Force turn out to be, they will almost certainly be designed to improve the rational basis for establishing regulatory priorities. Thus, there is a clear need for de- tailed information about risks and their impacts and for analytical tools for weighing risks, costs, and benefits. How, then, can science and technology be used in assessing risks and weighing alternative strategies for eliminating or mitigating those risks? The first step in- volves the identification of risks. To that end, it is useful to consider two classes of risks: those associated with the results of science and technology and those associated with the conduct of science itself. The first type of risk is exemplified by the hazards associated with the production, use, and disposal of toxic chemicals. The reasons that toxic chemicals are candi- dates for some type of regulation are obvious: virtually all chemicals, in sufficiently large concentrations, can cause damage to health, safety, or the environment; a few can cause damage even in minute quantities. Thus, some sort of control is required on chemical production, use, and disposal. Recognition of the need for control is the point at which the appropriate form and extent of regulation be- come issues. An example of the second type of risk includes those associated with biomedical research on human subjects. In that case, regulations govern the activities of scientists. 28 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK rather than the products of those activities. Again, the reason why biomedical research is a candidate for regula- tion is obvious: to protect individuals from excessive physical or psychological harm resulting from being sub- jects of that research. However, without research on human subjects, no new drugs could ever be tested and marketed, nor could new medical or surgical procedures be developed. Recognition of the conflict between the potential benefits to be derived from research using human subjects and the potential harm to the subjects themselves makes the form and extent of regulation of research on human subjects a particularly difficult policy problem. Science can make two kinds of direct contributions to framing regulatory policies for the assessment and man- agement of risk. First, it can supply empirical data about the prevalence and effects of a given set of potential hazards. Second, it can provide a battery of analytical techniques for assessing invariably complex situations and for evaluating the effects of alternative regulatory strategies (SSRC-1). Science can also contribute indirectly to other aspects of policy decisions about the management of risk. For example, a major question concerning risk management is: What levels of damage to health or to safety or to the environment from a given technological advance are ac- ceptable? It is now widely recognized that achieving zero risk while still reaping the benefits of scientific and tech- nological advance is impossible. Therefore, a question that remains is: What level of risk is tolerable or accept- able? (NRC-Obs.; AAAS-5). Answering that question requires an understanding of public values about health and environmental quality, as well as an understanding of the values placed on the benefits that might also be derived from the technology. Scientific methods can be used to gather information about public perceptions and values and. thereby, can contribute indirectly to the nonscientific aspects of risk management decisions (SSRC-1). SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENTS OF RISK Scientific contributions to risk assessment often involve two different types of research and analysis. First, meas- urements have to be made both to establish, quantitatively. the levels at which the hazard (a suspected toxic chemical , for example) occurs in various settings (such as a factory or dump), and to relate different levels of occurrence to different classes or degrees of damage to health, safety, or the environment. Other types of measurements may also be necessary — for example, atmospheric transport and absorption rates in the case of air pollution from coal-fired power plants. Makmg those types of measurements and establishing precisely the necessary correlations are often very diffi- cult. Estimating specific levels of possible damage can be greatly facilitated by a detailed understanding of funda- mental physical, chemical, psychological, and biological processes, but even in those cases some residual uncer- tainties are common. The situation is further complicated in some cases since the sensitivity of instruments capable of detecting such things as contaminants in food, water, or the atmosphere is continuing to increase, so that minute traces may be found in previously unsuspected situations. Foirthermore, there are cases where there may be no way to quantify risks, such as the potential psychological damage to a subject of a behavioral science experiment. In short, there is almost always a certain amount of residual uncer- tainty associated with scientific assessments of risk (NRC-Obs.; AAAS-5). The second type of research and analysis required to assess risks involves extrapolation of present knou ledge about hazard levels and their correlations with damage to health, safety, or the environment to future situations. In some cases, the extrapolations are relatively straightfor- ward. In others, they are at best educated guesses and, as such, are open to debate. It is also particularly difficult to evaluate what might have been the risk of a particular drug that was never marketed or a power plant that was never built. Therefore, although high levels of precision are sometimes approached, there frequently remains consid- erable uncertainty in. the analysis and measurement of risk. Risk assessment is not yet a sufficiently precise activity to cover all cases equally well or with equal levels of certainty, and further methodological refinements are needed. Dealing with the uncertainty increases the judg- mental burden on policymakers. WEIGHING RISKS, COSTS, AND BENEFITS The issue of risk can never be resolved in its own right. That is, individuals and populations are never asked to accept a risk for its own sake. Rather, risks are acceptable only to the degree that they are a necessary price to be paid for anticipated benefits. It follows that any creditable regulatory policy has to be based on a comparison of risks and benefits, and on a broadly accepted consensus that the anticipated benefits outweigh the anticipated risks (AAAS-5). This need to weigh both the costs and the benefits of potentially hazardous technologies, as well as the costs and benefits of regulating those technologies, was recognized in President Reagan's Executive Order on Federal regulation.' Thus, yet another type of research and analysis consist- ing of formal techniques for weighing sets of risks, costs, and benefits is sometimes brought to bear on risk assess- ment and management. The use of such cost-benefit analyses, however, it not without difficulties. During the past decade, there has been increasing interest in expand- ing formal methods of cost-benefit analysis to the realm of risk-benefit comparison. As originally and narrowly con- strued, a cost-benefit analysis of an intended policy alter- native simply totaled the anticipated monetary costs of a Generic Policx Issues 29 particular project in one column, totaled its anticipated economic return (translated into monetary terms) in an- other column, and compared the two. The method was first used in the public sector by the Army Corps of Engineers in planning and justifying water projects during the 1930s/ Costs, in addition to those of construction, included, for example, losses to people whose land would be flooded. Benefits, in addition to hydroelectric power and increased irrigation capacity, included the creation of recreational facilities. Many of the methodological problems involved in car- rying out and interpreting such relatively narrow cost- benefit calculations have been studied by economists for many years, and most are now generally resolved. However, problems that are not completely methodologi- cal arise in trying to extend cost-benefit calculations to weigh intangibles whose monetary value is not easily established, as is the case with many important risks. One can, for example, compare anticipated monetary losses to the fishing industry in the Northeast due to acid rain to the costs involved in reducing industrial emissions that are the cause of acid rain. But it is far more difficult and. to some, morally repugnant to place a dollar value on serious injuries to human beings or on the loss of human life (NRC-Obs.; AAAS-5).'^ Quantitative comparisons of risks and benefits also carry a burden of uncertainty in cases where both the risks and the benefits are anticipated in the future and. there- fore, are more difficult to assess. At the extreme, those comparisons may involve risks and benefits to distant future generations who are likely to live under different circumstances and who may therefore also weigh risks and benefits differently than we do now (NRC-Obs.). Nuclear waste disposal represents the classical future generation problem (See Section II-E). Finally, the risks and the benefits of a specific technol- ogy may not fall on the same groups in the present genera- tion. The risks and costs of a synthetic fuels industry, for example, will fall most heavily on coal miners and on the population of Western States in the forms of environmen- tal damage and loss of water for agriculture. On the other hand, heavily populated regions in other parts of the country could benefit greatly from the availability of syn- thetic fuels. All of these uncertainties underline the fact that assess- ments of the risks, costs, and benefits of technological developments, and the policy decisions to be based on them, necessarily involve value judgments that cannot, therefore, be reduced entirely to scientific terms. However, formal analytical tools such as cost-benefit anal- ysis can be of powerful assistance in displaying the likely consequences of different policies and in indicating which residual uncertainties can be reduced by better scientific information or analysis (ASTR-II). If. as it seems likely, the science and technology enter- prise will be called upon to a greater degree in the future to contribute its best possible insights about risks and their regulation to decisionmakers and policymakers, then the analytical tools for extrapolating assessments of hazards into the future, for weighing risks and benefits, and for determining public attitudes about various classes of risks will need to be refined, both to improve their usefulness to policymakers and to clarify their limits." In seeking that refinement it should be emphasized again that significant risks, by their nature, are frequently associated with tech- nologies, processes, or products that also carry significant anticipated benefits. Likewise, while the risks inherent in a particular product or process can be eliminated by selecting a very different alternative, that alternative will carry with it risks and benefits that may be of a different nature. Risks and benefits associated with the use of coal and nuclear fission provide important examples. Thus, analyses are needed not just for comparing the significant risks and benefits associated with particular products and processes, but also for comparing risks and benefits of entire classes of products and processes. Such large-scale assessments necessarily involve a broad spectrum of dis- ciplinary expertise and institutional perspectives. There- fore, both the quality and the usefulness of such analyses might be improved by increasing the breadth of expertise within specific disciplines and developing multidisciplin- ary methods of analysis (AAAS-1; AAAS-5). REFERENCES 1. National Science Foundation. The Five-Year Outlook: Prohlenu. Opportunities and Constraints in Science and Technology. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, May 1980. See Volume I, pp. 31-33; Volume II. pp. 123-144 and 493-520. 2. "Federal Regulation," Executive Order #12291. February 17, 1981. 3. Ibid. 4. Michael S. Baram. Re i>ulation if Health, Safety, and Environmen- tal Quality and the Use of Cost-Benefit Analysis. Report to the Admin- istrative Conference of the United States (unpublished). March 1979. See pp. 1-8. 5. Ibid. Despite these obvious problems, a number of regulatory agencies do place monetary values on human life for the purpose of making cost-benefit calculations. 6. National Science Foundation, op. cit. (Ref. I). See. for example, Dorothy Nelkin. "Science, Technology and the Democratic Process," Volume II. pp. 483-492. n Functional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints A. Introduction The previous chapter was concerned with the impacts that science and technology are likely to have on problems that transcend or cut across specific substantive fields or areas of application, and on the ways in which developments external to science and technology are likely to affect their conduct. This second chapter focuses on likely impacts of science and technology in specific areas of application, organized around nine functional categories. Each section considers the ways in which science and technology can contribute to the illumination and/or resolution of a se- lected group of problems of national significance, and points to the limitations on science and technology in making those contributions. The specific problems, opportunities and constraints discussed in this chapter are derived from discussions in the source materials published in the companion volumes to this report. Other published reports, including par- ticularly the first Five-Year Outlook and the first three Annual Science and Technology Reports, have also been drawn upon to provide additional factual information to amplify or to round out the detailed treatments in the Source Volumes. The source materials for this report include the multiple perspectives of practitioners of sci- ence and technology, the Federal agency programmatic managers of science and technology, and policy experts. The discussions, based heavily on those perspectives, are intended to provide a framework or basis for public dis- cussion of the issues. The discussions in each section are not intended to include all issues in the functional area, nor do they treat issues in great depth. More comprehensive and detailed treatments of problems, opportunities, and constraints within a functional area can be found in the Source Vol- umes (cited in parentheses in this chapter) or in the addi- tional sources (cited in footnotes). Even with this selectivity, some of the sections that follow discuss more needs and opportunities than could possibly be fulfilled or pursued. The setting of priorities among those opportunities and needs is a policy decision involving value judgments. Therefore, it cannot be based solely on scientific or technical criteria. The purpose of the sections is to present a selected list of current and emerging problems, opportunities, and constraints for science and technology within each functional area as a basis for selecting items for the policy agenda and for viewing alternative approaches to problems of national concern. Although problems and opportunities are usually pre- sented in this chapter under only one functional area heading, that does not mean that they are not linked 31 32 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK importantly to other areas. In fact, many problems have aspects or ramifications that transcend functional area lines. For example, the Nation's water resources and their allocation are discussed specifically in the section on natural resources, but they are also critical issues for agriculture and for energy. In turn, issues related to our future energy resources pervade all functional areas. Linkages are noted, where possible, but each problem or opportunity is discussed in detail only once. B. National Security* Science and technology have altered drastically not only the nature and scale of armed conflict in this century, but also the very meaning of strategic war as an option to achieve national objectives. Thus, the strength and pro- ductivity of a nation's advanced technological capability have become major elements in any geopolitical calcula- tion (AAAS-6). Since 1967. total national investments for research and development, measured as a percentage of Gross National Product, have been consistently higher in the Soviet Union than in any other country in the world (SI -78). Dollar cost estimates for Soviet military research, de- velopment, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) expendi- tures indicate that they have exceeded annual U.S. expen- ditures during each of the past 10 years, leading to an aggregate gap of about $90 billion, measured in 1982 dollars. Moreover, an increasing share of Soviet military outlays is being devoted to RDT&E. Despite this im- balance, the United States has maintained its leadership in most basic technologies, in large measure because of its leadership across a broad range of commercial tech- nologies. But the Soviet Union has been closing the gap in certain key areas, including electro-optical sensors, guid- ance and navigation, hydroacoustic technology, optics, and propulsion. Federal R&D funding patterns for national defense from 1971 to 1982 are shown in Figure 1. The significant increases in proposed obligations for 1981 and 1982 reflect the President's commitment to rebuild U.S. defense ca- pabilities. Proposed budget obligations for defense-re- lated R&D will continue to increase during the next 5 years. Since the overall U.S. international position with re- spect to advanced technology has a direct bearing on national security, the R&D programs of the Department of Defense aim not only at the development of specific defense-related technologies, but also at the maintenance of broad-based, long-range R&D capabilities in the pri- o Q 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 _ / ^ DOLLARS/ / ~ / ' X / ^^^ i ^^"^-^ ^^^ t PERCENT "*^^^ ^^^^ / ^^^--. / , *^ / - - fill - 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 .42 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1.982 FIGURE I. Federal R&D Funding for National Defense FY 1971-82. Sources: National Science Foundation and Office of Management and Budget vate sector in such key areas as electronics and materials. Thus, increasing Federal funds for defense-related R&D will support programs in universities and in private indus- try, as well as in the Department of Defense's own facilities. Succeeding subsections provide brief descriptions of several programs likely to yield important results in the next 5 years in the areas of microelectronics, electronic systems, materials technology, aeronautics, space defense and surveillance, nuclear test detection, and human re- sources. Additional details about those programs, as well as anticipated advances in the development and testing of new conventional weapons systems, appear in the report of the interagency task group on national security in the Source Volumes. Speculations regarding aspects of na- tional security that are not directly related to military systems also appear in the Source Volumes (AAAS-Obs.; AAAS-6: AAAS-11). *Unless otherwise noted, the material in this section is based upon the report submitted to the National Science Foundation by the interagency task group on national security that appears in the second ot the accom- panying Source Volumes. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS One area in which the United States maintains a clear technological advantage over the Soviet Union is in elec- Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 33 Ironies, particularly microelectronics. Rapid advances in that field have made possible the development of highly sophisticated sensors, some military applications of which are discussed later in this section.' Sensors based on microelectronic circuitry have also led to the develop- ment of "smart" integrated conventional systems, such as the Assault Breaker and Tank Breaker systems described in the Source Volumes (NS). Microelectronics technology also underlies the rapidly advancing and converging fields of computers and com- munications; some military applications will be described below. Because sophisticated electronic circuitry under- lies the entire U.S. defense mission, new demands are being placed on military personnel. Research in be- havioral science aimed at understanding the complex in- terface between human beings and electronics systems is highlighted at the end of the section. Given the central ity of microelectronics to the defense mission, the Department of Defense is focusing consid- erable attention on stimulating research and development at the frontiers of the field. The Very High Speed Inte- grated Circuits (VHSIC) Program, started during fiscal year 1980, is a 6-year, triservice/industry/university de- velopment program aimed at accelerating the advance- ment of microcircuit technology to firmly reestablish U.S. leadership in the field. The program also aims to ensure the continued industrial capability to provide the elec- tronics required in the next generation of computers, missiles, radars, and intelligence processing centers. For the semiconductor industry, VHSIC is a substantial pro- gram, increasing the level of Department of Defense R&D support in integrated circuit technology to four times what it has been in recent years. The VHSIC program is de- signed to provide a substantial step forward in integrated circuit performance and production capabilities. A ten- fold reduction in size, weight, power consumption, and failure rate, with accompanying savings in both initial and life-cycle costs of military computer processing systems compared with existing very large scale integrated circuit technology, is envisioned. New or improved computer chip architecture will be developed to permit chip design at an affordable cost, with minimum customization to reduce supply and logistic costs. The Department of Defense has also recently initiated a very long range effort in Ultrasmall Electronics Research (USER) intended to advance electronics technology sub- stantially beyond even the goals of the VHSIC program. With the advent of high-resolution electron. X-ray, mo- lecular, and ion-beam lithographic techniques, an era of ultrasmall devices can be envisioned in which individual feature size might well be fabricated on the molecular scale of dimensions (i.e., 10-20 nanometers). In such devices, temporal and spatial scales would become so short and the electric fields so large that the physical concepts used in analysis of present day semiclassical device physics would be inappropriate and, indeed, might be misleading. Moreover, the new physical properties available could lead to radically new electronic device structures in that the individual device might assume a variety of functions that depend upon the influence of neighboring devices. Thus, USER aims at revolutionary changes 10 to 20 years in the future that will depend upon entirely new concepts and materials. It will deal mainly with the phys- ics, chemistry, metallurgy, and transport of charge in highly constrained geometrical structures that may be used in future generations of highly complex integrated circuits. USER has been called one of the last remaining frontiers of solid-state electronics, where the new funda- mental unit is an aggregate or array of molecules or atoms. While this research program has highly speculative as- pects, the potential payoff is very high in terms of U.S. preeminence in both military and civilian applications of electronics in the decades ahead. ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS COMPUTER SOFTWARE Because advances in software technology have not kept pace with advances in computer hardware technology, the Department of Defense has recently begun a concerted attack on software problems, with special emphasis on a few high-payoff projects. The urgency of the software problem derives chiefly from the following factors; (1) Software continues to be an increasingly important and expensive component of military systems, with estimates of Department of Defense computer soft- ware costs now running as high as $5 billion per year; (2) Advances in computer hardware technology are rapidly altering computer system characteristics and expanding expectations for military systems; (3) The Department of Defense has specialized software needs that are not shared with most commercial and industrial applications of computers; and (4) The approaching completion of the Ada common programming language standardization effort provides an opportunity for coordinated development of generic software, with significantly reduced du- plication of Department of Defense software support environments. The software technology program has two major parts. The first is aimed at the short-term problems of realizing the potential benefits offered by the Ada common lan- guage effort. The second will be a longer term effort to greatly improve the effectiveness of automated software technology for military systems requirements and to com- plement the computer hardware of the mid-1980s. 34 THE FIVB-YEAR OUTLOOK ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE A State-of-the-art survey of the field of artificial intel- ligence appears in the accompanying Source Volumes (NRC-17). Coupled with work on automation and robot- ics, advances in the field are expected to play an in- creasingly important role in solving future military prob- lems of engineering, management, logistics, reliability and maintainability, remote sensing, surveillance, and vehicle and weapons control. A major Department of Defense research effort, sched- uled to begin in fiscal year 1982, will investigate new techniques for automated systems that make use of state- of-the-art knowledge of artificial intelligence. The re- search will focus on methods for representing knowledge and for reasoning with knowledge in computer systems. Studies in systems automation will establish the founda- tion for a new generation of intelligent military systems, ranging from "expert consultants"" to autonomous sys- tems, that will provide new capabilities and ease man- power needs . The " 'expert consultant" " systems will assist users in such tasks as planning and scheduling operations and diagnosing and repairing complex mechanical sys- tems. Autonomous systems will be capable of command- ing, controlling, and conducting military operations and will possess a capability to sense, think, and act. The Department of Defense's work in robotics is close- ly associated with that research. Not only must the De- partment of Defense manufacture systems, it must sup- port and maintain those systems across a farflung theater of operations, frequently in hostile operating environ- ments, using a largely unskilled labor force with a high turnover rate. Thus, the demand for intelligent, flexible automation (robots) is obvious. In the near future, the use of robots in Department of Defense systems manufacturing will increase in parallel with industry. Maintenance and repair activities at inter- mediate- and depot-levels will begin to use robots as the technology matures to the point where robot systems can deal with the complications and variations associated with such work. In the longer term, robots will be developed for field uses to assist combat and support forces: those applications will place still greater requirements on robots to be flexible and intelligent and to have sensory ca- pabilities. It has been suggested, for example, that much onboard ship maintenance could be done more efficiently if each ship used a work cell operated by intelligent robots to manufacture parts needed rather than carrying vast numbers of seldom-used spares. COMMAND, CONTROL, AND COMMUNICATIONS Rapid advances in the converging fields of computer and communications technologies provide the potential to de- velop systems to improve the Nation's ability to coordi- nate its fightmg forces around the world. Strategic com- mand, control, and communications systems must be able to survive in combat and be highly dependable as the link between the command structure, strategic reserve forces. and troops in the field. Communications response time is also a critical factor. In pursuing the development and demonstration of computer/communications technology in a broad strategic and tactical systems context, experts are exploring computer communications technologies for application to both individual networks and internetwork systems. Advanced packet communications techniques and a powerful experimental internetwork are under de- velopment to provide local . regional , and long-band com- puter communications via ground radio transmission, ter- restrial circuits, and satellites. Several experimental testbeds are being used to evaluate new information- processing technologies in realistic military environments. The Department of Defense is also developing the technology for securing classified information processed or stored in computer and communications networks. Basic research in distributed computer systems is address- ing the military need for geographically dispersed multi- computer command and control systems. In fiscal year 1981, new initiatives were begun on the design of secure distributed transition systems in which several security levels must be handled concurrently. NEW MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES The availability of stronger, lighter, and more heat resist- ant materials that can be fabricated from domestically available raw materials is critical to the future develop- ment of military aircraft, spacecraft, and ballistic mis- siles. Over the years, pioneering developments in ad- vanced materials that have emerged from Department of Defense programs have led to vastly improved military capabilities as well as the creation of new U.S. industries. Fiberglass-reinforced plastics, for example, are now fa- miliar almost everywhere. The Department of Defense, through early developments in its science and technology program, has created the rapidly growing, new. world- wide industry of fiber-reinforced plastic composite mate- rials. Commercial and private aircraft now in develop- ment will use increasing amounts of those materials to improve efficiency and reduce fuel consumption. Although the achievements have been fomiidable. the pace of advances in military technology has imposed even more rigorous demands on systems performance, and the quest for materials with still greater performance ca- pabilities must be pursued vigorously in the years ahead. Priority areas for research and development include im- provements in carbon/carbon composites, in metal-matrix composites, and in rapid solidification technology. The development of carbon fiber-reinforced carbon composite materials has led an increasing number of Fiinctioiuil Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 35 missile developers to consider those materials to achieve significant performance gains. Carbon fiber-reinforced plastics provide the very high strength and, especially, the stiffness needed for such applications as aircraft wing components, helicopter blades, and other highly loaded structures. Used in such applications, they can cut weights by 15-30 percent, greatly simplify design and construction, increase reliability, reduce production costs, and decrease fuel consumption. Carbon fiber-reinforced carbon composite materials are also the most effective substances yet discovered for such extremely high temperature applications as ballistic mis- sile reentry body nose tips and rocket nozzle throats. With further development, the materials are expected to be- come useful as high-temperature turbine blades for cruise missile engines. In addition to the performance gains possible with carbon/carbon composites, their domestic availability and potential low cost could make them at- tractive alternatives to high-cost gas turbine superalloys. Inasmuch as the superalloys contain substantial amounts of cobalt and chromium for which the United States is almost totally dependent on imports, the development of carbon/carbon composites as alternatives could relieve U.S. dependency on foreign sources. Fiber-reinforced metallic materials, referred to as met- al-matrix composites, have a variety of potential military applications, such as helicopter transmission housings, portable bridging components, strategic missiles, mines and torpedoes, tactical missiles, airframe and gas turbine components, and satellite components. In addition, the materials show promise in the future for such uses as laser mirrors, lightweight gun mounts, submarine propellers, and radar antennas. One of the early results of the Department of Defense research and development program in metal-matrix com- posites is a fiber-reinforced lead grid material for sub- marine batteries that can lengthen the submanne battery replacement cycle from 5 to 10 years, thereby aligning it with the nuclear core replacement schedule and reducing maintenance costs appreciably. Another significant con- sequence of the work is the potential substitution of metal- matrix composites for such critical materials as chro- mium, cobalt, titanium, and beryllium. For example, it has been determined that composites consisting of high- modulus graphite fiber-reinforced magnesium alloys ex- hibit stiffness, strength, and dimensional stability equiv- alent or superior to beryllium at the same weight. During fiscal year 1982, the Department of Defense will move vigorously into the area of rapid solidification technology. The objective of the new technology is to produce very high quality starting materials for new fam- ilies of aluminum and titanium alloys and superalloys. Current modest investments have demonstrated sufficient promise and maturity of the technology to justify initiat- ing a major, long-term financial commitment to accelerate the development of the new materials. Rapid solidification technology involves solidifying metals and alloys from a molten state at a very fast rate, leading to the possibility of alloys with superior high- temperature strength, vastly improved corrosion resist- ance, and increased lifetime. For example, a new super- alloy has been made that can run 100°C hotter in jet engines, thereby offering the design flexibility of either a 15 percent thrust increase or a dramatic reduction in fuel consumption. A new aluminum alloy has been developed that is 30 percent lighter for aircraft construction. In the future the new alloys could enable airplanes to either carry 30 percent more pay load or decrease fuel consumption. During the next 5 years the Department of Defense's rapid solidification technology program will involve basic research, exploratory development, specific technology demonstrations, and manufacturing technology efforts to be conducted at university, industrial, and government laboratories. The technology emerging from that thrust is expected to provide major economic benefits to transpor- tation, space, and energy systems and to the U.S. com- mercial manufacturing base in general. AERONAUTICAL TECHNOLOGY The integration of advanced electronics and materials technologies is leading to significant improvements in the combat capability of tactical aircraft. It will soon be possible to maximize aircraft performance by automat- ically changing the shape of key aircraft components in flight such as wing sweep, airfoil camber, and engine inlets; to provide independent six-degree-of-freedom con- trol to increase agility and minimize weapon delivery errors; and to integrate the flight, fire control and naviga- tion systems. Those advances will provide task-tailored handling qualities. Fire control information will be used to automatically or semiautomatically assist the pilot in maneuvering the aircraft. Additionally, the new control concepts provide the capability to conduct a maneuvering approach to launch for air-to-ground weapons, thereby increasing survivability against ground defenses. Recent investigations of the Department of Defense's aircraft engine development programs have concluded that additional efforts need to be placed on durability and reliability aspects during the early research and develop- ment phases of the program. The technology program is also being reoriented to stress reliability and main- tainability. The increasing costs of propulsion systems and the supporting costs after they are placed in operation have become major concerns. Since a large cost factor is the number of parts in a propulsion system, current efforts are aimed at reducing the number of compressor stages by improving component performance. A major effort in the advanced turbine engine gas generator program is being made to increase the structural testing of promising new turbine engine concepts. Successful completion of those 36 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK tests should provide a base for better transition of ad- vanced technologies to engines on a timely basis. A triservice working group has been formed to define an overall plan to develop and demonstrate small engine technology in the I to 7 pound per second airflow class. Those engines are applicable to auxiliary power units, light helicopters, light fixed- wing aircraft, and cruise missiles, all of which are widely used by U.S. armed forces. SPACE DEFENSE AND SURVEILLANCE The exploitation of space as a medium for important military functions raises the potential for hostile acts against U.S. space assets and presents the need to develop effective space defense and surveillance systems. Recent advances in laser technology create possibilities for high-energy laser weapons for use in space. While very long lethal ranges and propagation at the speed of light make lasers uniquely capable for such applications, improvements by orders of magnitude in critical perform- ance factors are required before weapons applications would be possible. The current Department of Defense effort is intended to develop the basic technology to apply those improvements to critical laser design parameters as well as advances in system performance. In the past year, there has been substantial progress toward establishing the technology base for chemical laser weapons. Scale system testing has verified that the high fuel efficiency obtained previously with subscale systems also applies to higher power laser devices. In addition, researchers have developed unconventional concepts that equal, and in some cases exceed, the performance of existing devices. The high fuel efficiency and decreased weight attainable when the new concepts are applied could translate into a space laser weapons system of lighter weight or more fuel storage capacity if scaling continues to hold for very high power laser devices. The Department of Defense's charged particle beam program is intended to demonstrate the feasibility of sta- ble, predictable propagation of high-power, relativistic electron beams in the atmosphere over distances of mili- tary interest. The essential tool for investigation of at- mospheric electron beam propagation is an Advanced Test Accelerator, now under construction at Lawrence Liver- more Laboratory. The Experimental Test Accelerator, which will serve as its front end, was completed recently, and experiments will be performed in order to extend previous low-energy propagation data. When completed at the end of fiscal year 1982, the Advanced Test Accelera- tor may provide the essential scientific data required to begin planning preprototype weapons systems. The principal emphasis in the space surveillance pro- gram has been on advanced visible and infrared detector arrays. The enhanced capabilities of such devices permit a variety of surveillance and battle management missions not possible previously. An advanced high-resolution in- frared sensor has been installed in a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) U-2 aircraft to collect measurements of Earth background and tactical targets. Advanced detector array production for the Defense Ad- vanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) TEAL RUBY experiment, the first on-orbit demonstration of advanced detector technology, will provide a target/back- ground signature data base to support the design of future operational systems. The sensor is expected to be deliv- ered to the U.S. Air Force for integration with the P80-I spacecraft for a planned Shuttle launch later in this decade. NUCLEAR TEST VERIFICATION Research in nuclear arms tests verification is intended to provide a wider range of sensor options and greater as- surance of detection and identification of nuclear tests. Current efforts involve the development of advanced sen- sor systems and associated data analysis procedures. With recent advances in characterization of seismic sources and wave propagation modeling, and the completion of a worldwide network of high-quality digital monitoring sta- tions, it is now possible to develop source identification procedures based on physical and geometric properties. A marine seismic system demonstration program will offer the possibility of monitoring, unobtrusively and at close distances, the most seismically active regions for clandestine underground tests. Such a system would provide significantly enhanced global monitoring ca- pabilities of underground and underwater nuclear tests. It consists of a high-quality, three-component borehole seis- mometer and associated signal conditioning electronics suitable for long-term emplacement in the deep ocean floor The program will demonstrate the feasibility of installing and operating a state-of-the-art seismic detector in a borehole in the deep (5.6 km) ocean floor Application of the seismic data to detection, location, and identifica- tion of underground explosions will depend on analysis techniques developed under ongoing programs in seismic source and signal propagation theory and advanced data processing. The marine seismic system program was initiated in late fiscal year 1979, and the design for the system was completed at the end of fiscal year 1980. Techniques and specialized equipment required for placing the instrument in boreholes in the ocean floor using the drillship Glomar Challenger have been completed. An at-sea test was con- ducted in the mid- Atlantic in early 1981 to verify operation of the equipment and to gather initial data on seismic noise reduction in that environment. The sensor, with associated electronics required for data acquisition and storage, will be developed by early 1982, and deployment of the system Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 31 is scheduled for the summer of 1982. Fiill system com- munications will be added in 1983. HUMAN RESOURCES The availability of sufficient numbers of committed scien- tists and engineers is a prerequisite to the success of the defense-related R&D programs highlighted in this sec- tion. For that reason, current and anticipated future con- straints on the supply of qualified engineers are of particu- lar concern to the defense mission (Section I-B). The armed services are continuing to experience difficulties in recruiting and retaining qualified engineers, in part be- cause of the high starting salaries available in private industry. For the same reason, university engineering departments, which may be called upon to conduct a wide range of defense-related research during the next 5 years. are unable to fill all available faculty positions.- Those problems could become increasingly severe during the decade. More broadly, the rapid advances in science and tech- nology that have increased the complexity of occupations and professions in the civilian sector during the past 20 years have brought about similar complexities in the de- fense sector. Weapons systems are more sophisticated, the speed of battle has increased, and the demands on the individual are mounting. Thus, a reasonable level of sci- ence and technology literacy is increasingly desirable, if not essential, for military personnel at all levels. In recog- nition of those circumstances, the Soviet Union has de- veloped a curriculum in mathematics, science, and tech- nology at the primary and secondary school levels, which is, on paper, the most advanced in the world. ' In contrast, the degree of science and technology literacy of American high school graduates who are not intent on careers in science, engineering, or such related professions as medi- cine appears to have eroded seriously since the mid-1960s.' Resolution of those problems involves a range of issues that go beyond science and technology. In any event, since the complexity of the defense mission is certain to in- crease, research is being pursued in several behavioral science fields with the objective of making the most effective use of the human resources available to the armed services. For example, it has become very costly to train people to operate and maintain high-technology weapons systems. Indeed, the cost of the training equip- ment often approaches the cost of the actual weapons system itself. Many of the skills needed for combat cannot be imparted using conventional techniques in a peacetime environment. For those reasons the Department of De- fense conducts research in education aimed at the de- velopment of instructional systems, the identification and validation of candidate training media, and the assessment of output performance. Current and evolving computer technologies are ex- pected to influence the methods and effectiveness of per- sonnel training. One result will be to make possible com- puter-based instruction systems capable of holding complicated conversations about a subject comparable to a Socratic dialog. By 1985, there should be several in- structional systems of this type in daily use, and numerous efforts will be under way to expand the range of topics covered and the depth of understanding possessed by the systems. Also, by 1985, a knowledge representation scheme for aircraft maintenance data will be developed and demonstrated. It is anticipated that the system can be provided at reasonable cost and that it will be suitable both for training aircraft mechanics and for providing a diag- nostic aid for special problems. Once the knowledge representation technology is demonstrated, it should be rapidly applied to a variety of other systems during the latter half of the decade. Another major defense-related behavioral research pro- gram aims at enhancing the information-processing and decisionmaking capabilities of people working in de- manding environments through better understanding of interactions between human operators and computers. In today's defense missions, sophisticated sensor and com- munications systems can gather an overwhelming amount of information that is valuable or critical to the conduct of operations. Better management of information must occur at the interface between machine presentation and human response in order to cope with the information load. Automation of more processing functions certainly can contribute to information handling, but even far into the future, effective and dependable system performance will still require effective human operators and decisionmakers. Some problems that require attention in addressing the interface between machine presentation and human cogni- tive responses in the context of military operational en- vironments and systems are: (1) Dealing with potential information overload for oper- ators and decisionmakers; (2) Dealing with time-critical information; (3) Deciding what information in a high-volume system to save or store; (4) Finding the optimal organization for different mixes of information; (5) Dealing with data bases prone to undetected errors or missing data; (6) Presenting information in an optimal way for such diverse functions as alerting for a critical event, monitoring for an infrequent failure, diagnosing a problem condition, or presenting alternative courses of action; and (7) Providing requisite control/input interfaces and em- ploying effective feedback to users with varied skill and knowledge about the computer system. 38 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Because these problems are interdisciplinary and at the frontier of interaction between the behavioral and infor- mational sciences, there is a clear need to combine re- search from both the psychological and computer sci- ences. Research specialties that will be essential elements in such interdisciplinary projects include human factors, artificial intelligence, psycholinguistics. decision analysis, communications theory, information manage- ment, information display, human information process- ing, human aptitudes, systems engineering, and manage- ment science. Human factors engineering, which is concerned with human performance implications for the design of hard- ware, provides a final example of a behavioral research effort supported by the Department of Defense. Research objectives are; (1) To provide basic knowledge of the sensory, percep- tual, cognitive, and response characteristics that un- derlie task performance capabilities; (2) To translate task performance information into new ways to interface man with his equipment; and ( 3 ) To develop methods for assessing man 's contributions to systems. Current research concentrates upon vision and visual perception characteristics, neurophysiological metrics (such as visual responses that indicate perceptual and cognitive processes), information-processing principles for man-computer interface design, decisionmaking in command and control, and workload measurement methodologies. REFERENCES 1. See. for example, "Interview with Edward Teller," Military Sci- ence and Technology, Vol. I, No. I (19801, pp. 38-47. 2. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education. Science and Engineering Education for the 1980s and Beyond Wash- ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prmtmg Oftice, October 1980. pp. 24-31 and pp. 36-39. 3. Ibid., pp. 58-61. 4. Ibid., pp 45-52. • C. space The exploration of space has only just begun. Yet a wide range of potential uses for space — for expanding knowl- edge about the planetary system and the universe as a whole, for solving problems on Earth, and for serving national defense needs — have already been identified. Reaping some of those potential benefits, however, may be far off, since space missions require extensive develop- ment programs and typically take several years from conception to launch. Even after missions are launched, they often need to be operative for several years before all the results are clearly evident. Additionally, deriving so- cial, political, or economic benefits from those results requires that they be institutionalized into ongoing opera- tional systems, and that, too, requires time. In that re- spect, the situation is not much different from that in other large-scale research and development programs, such as those in energy, transportation, and health. However, space exploration is still relatively novel, and our potential capabilities in that area are expanding rapidly. For these reasons we may still lack much of the experience required to formulate precise long-range plans that can make the most effective use of the potentials of space. In other words, we have to continue to invent the future as we proceed. Space has been referred to as the new limitless ocean. Given the historic impulse to explore, to understand, and to control such uncharted regions, there is no doubt that humans will seek to master space. The only questions are: Who will explore space and reap its benefits? When will the various phases of exploration and mastery occur? The National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958 and policy decisions by successive Administrations have committed the United States to leadership in space. Financial re- sources in this area, however, as in all others, are limited. Therefore, in order to ensure that the U.S. space program constitutes a logical, efficient, and cost-effective se- quence of activities that can take advantage of emerging technological opportunities, space planning is carried out with a very long ranging time perspective. Because of the need for long-range planning, many of the activities dis- cussed in this section, froin the study of concepts to the employment of space systems, will not be completed for Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 39 many years, even though they may already have been initiated or are well into the planning or development stages. SPACE TECHNOLOGY AND SPACE SCIENCE The U.S. space program of the 1960s concentrated on developing the technologies of propulsion, power, struc- tures, controls, and electronics systems needed for space operations and on proving that space flight was not only technologically feasible, but also potentially very useful. The decade of the 1970s was a period of consolidation, initial development of a reusable space transportation system, and assessment of the most fruitful directions to pursue in space science, research, and applications. The directions selected supported application of space ca- pabilities to the solution of terrestrial problems, and ex- ploitation of the space environment for scientific pur- poses. Missions were continued and plans for future missions were initiated to exploit the unique capabilities of space systems to increase and deepen our understand- ing of the universe (NRC-9; SPACE). Space activities in the 1980s are expected to be more international in character, more sophisticated in technol- ogy, and richer in their contribution to scientific knowl- edge. Results are expected that will be potentially valu- able for commercial, civil, and military applications. Efforts will also be made to involve the private sector more in the support of U.S. space programs that could provide long-range commercial benefits. The communi- cations industry has already made considerable commit- ments to space, and the promise of the unique environ- ment it offers for certain manufacturing processes has received considerable attention. However, because it is often impossible to project accurately the benefits from a specific program, because space programs require such long leadtimes before benefits from investments are real- ized, and because benefits would likely be widely dis- persed rather than centered in specific businesses, private enterprise has understandably not been inclined toward financial support of many major space programs. The private sector might be more willing to commit additional speculative funds to space programs if the payback period were shorter and profits guaranteed, and if it were more closely involved in long-range planning and could there- fore influence directions of space programs to fulfill its future commercial needs. Therefore, for the near future, the Federal Government will remain the primary sponsor of the U.S. space R&D effort (SPACE). One area of space activity in which the United States currently holds undisputed world leadership is space sci- ence. That area includes both interplanetary explorations and astronomical observations from orbiting satellites. Space exploration has paid huge dividends in other spheres by advancing technology for electronics in gener- al, computer technology in particular, and many other scientific and technical areas. It has added significantly to knowledge about the universe and about how Earth and its inhabitants fit into the universe. Given that knowledge and the new capabilities provided by the Space Shuttle and the planned Space Telescope, this Nation is in a position to do even better work in the space sciences in the coming years (NRC-9; NRC-17; SPACE). Investigation of the origin and evolution of the universe falls into four space science subcategories: astrophysics, solar-terrestrial physics, planetary research, and the life sciences (SPACE). Space science encompasses Earth, the solar system, our galaxy, and the entire universe. Its activities can provide information about the emergence of life on Earth and can investigate the possibility that life may exist elsewhere in the universe. It requires study of an incredibly diverse group of objects, such as diffuse clouds of gas and dust, stars and their systems of planets, comets, asteroids, pulsars, and quasars. And, until onsite meas- urements can be made, it must take into consideration radiation in all the frequency regions from visible light to cosmic rays. Detailed discussions of recent advances and promising opportunities in space science appear in the Source Volumes (NRC-9; NRC-17; SPACE). It is worth noting, however, that although almost limit- less opportunities exist for furthering our knowledge of the nature of the universe and our place in it, resource constraints will continue to require that explicit priorities be set. Scientific opportunities associated with a particu- lar type of project must be balanced against opportunities lost by foregoing another project. As in other parts of the space program, selection of priorities cannot be made solely on the basis of what can be done or what, from a scientific perspective, should be done. There is no ques- tion that the human race will continue to explore the universe or that the United States will continue to be deeply involved in doing so. The important question, as already noted in a more general context, is: What specific opportunities ought to be seized and when? THE SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM The first successful orbital tests of the Space Shuttle in April 1981 launched a new era of U.S. space capability. The Shuttle Orbiter. which is the basic element of the Space Transportation System, is not only a reusable launch and reentry vehicle, but also a short-term, low- Earth-orbit space platform. Although the precise long- term launch rate to accommodate many of the potential payloads for the complete Space Transportation System continues to evolve, the Shuttle is now heavily booked for its early years of operation. Organizations already com- mitted to its use include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of De- fense (DOD), other agencies of the U.S. Government, 40 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK commercial concerns, and foreign governments (NS: SPACE). It may be. therefore, that if the reaUzed traffic model grows significantly, the fourorbiters already sched- uled for production will eventually have to be augmented to realize the system's full potential. In addition, some planned payloads will require greater service facilities, more power, and longer stay-times in space than the cur- rent system can provide (NRC-9). THE STATUS AND USES OF THE SYSTEM The Space Transportation System is expected to replace, progressively through the 1980s, the expendable launch vehicles on which the space programs of this Nation and other nations have so far relied. It will consist of the Space Shuttle, the European-developed Spacelab. and upper stages for boosting payloads from the Shuttle's low-Earth orbit to higher orbits (NRC-9). Full development and exploitation of the Shuttle system provide a wide range of exciting opportunities for the use of space. Several of those opportunities are expected to be realized during the next 5 years. For example, the Shuttle will be able to transport a wide variety of payloads as large as 15 feet in diameter and 60 feet long and weighing as much as 65.000 pounds. In addition, it can launch, serv- ice, and retrieve free-flying spacecraft. A Shuttle orbiter with a Spacelab mounted in its cargo bay will provide a low-Earth-orbit space platform with a stay-time in space of up to 7 days or longer Because of the potential ease of carrying out some processes in the near-zero gravity en- vironment of space, investigations in materials processing during the next 5 years are expected to lay the groundwork for the commercial production of new and superior mate- rials in space (NRC-9). Also, the greater access to space provided by the Shuttle is expected to improve current capabilities for remote sensing of Earth and its environ- ment. Satellites will be inserted into Earth orbit from the Shuttle, thereby lessening the need for expendable launch vehicles and easing limitations on the weight and size of payloads. It also is anticipated that the Shuttle will provide unique opportunities in infrared and optical solar astrono- my. The launching of a life science laboratory is another possibility currently being examined (NRC-17; SPACE). In addition to providing many new opportunities for studying and using the space environment, development of the Shuttle has been paralleled by the refinement of many technologies that will have potential uses in other arenas. For example, design of the Shuttle was accom- panied by major advances in hypersonic aerodynamics, thermal protection devices, and very high pressure liquid- fueled engines. In addition, the Shuttle's flight control system, including the use of five identical computers for sensor computational redundancy, is an example of a state-of-the-art computer system offering improved and advanced control technology for many Earth-based ap- plications (NRC-17). SOME ANTICIPATED NEEDS FOR THE SYSTEM Regular operational flights of the Shuttle are scheduled to begin in late 1982. They will mark the beginning of a new national capability, but not its maturity; additional refine- ments clearly will be needed. Since many of those needed refinements will become evident only as flight experience discloses them, some improvements in the system will have to be planned as the need for them is identified. One improvement already obvious involves the ability to trans- port heavier cargo loads into space. Another is a necessary augmentation in available electrical power both to provide a supply adequate for expected payloads and to increase the Shuttle-Spacelab's stay-time in orbit. Current technol- ogy is sufficient for development of systems that could satisfy expected needs for the next 5 years. However, longer range needs suggest a requirement for increases in the capacity of energy storage devices and improvements in power-management systems (SPACE). As mentioned, some future science and applications payloads will require greater stay-times in space than that provided by the augmented Shuttle-Spacelab. Mounting those payloads on unmanned space platforms in low-Earth orbits seems now to be the most efficient method of accommodation. Structures up to a certain size will be carried to space in the Shuttle's cargo bay, but larger structures will have to be transported in sections and/or prefolded and assembled in space. Some structures that may be needed in the future could be large enough to require fabrication in space. Therefore, work has begun in developing both the assembly and the fabricating tech- niques that would be needed and the technologies to be used to maintain the orientation and geometry of the structures (SPACE). The period of rotation of any satellite is determined entirely by its distance from Earth's center The rotation period of a satellite located approximately 24,000 miles from the Earth's center is 24 hours — the rotational period of the Earth itself. Since the positions of such satellites remain stationary with respect to Earth's surface, their orbits are referred to as geosynchronous. Communica- tions satellites, for example, benefit greatly from being in geosynchronous orbit, and some remote sensing and space science tasks require that sensors occupy similar orbital positions. As space science and technology pro- gress, the demand for the limited number of geo- synchronous orbit positions is projected to grow rapidly, while the number of such positions obviously will not. Indeed, preemption of geosynchronous positions is an emerging international problem, as noted later in this section. Therefore, consideration currently is being given to collecting a range of payloads on large, unmanned geosynchronous platforms. Those platforms will pose special problems since they may initially have to be serv- iced remotely from great distances (SPACE). Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 41 The movement of space platforms from Shuttle altitude to geosynchronous orbit will require transfer vehicles having greater lifting capabilities than those of the Inertial Upper Stage and the Spinning Solid Upper Stages of the Space Transportation System currently being developed in coordination with NASA by the U.S. Air Force and industry, respectively. NASA is considering development of orbit transfer vehicles to meet those needs when they arise. The vehicles would also have the capability to place satellites in orbits that depart from the vicinity of Earth, and possibly to retrieve satellites both near to and remote from the Shuttle, The likely near-term (1990s) need is for an advanced propulsion system to serve as an upper stage for planetary missions in the space science program (SPACE). Future advances in long-term manned space systems raise additional questions on how the human body func- tions in space. Neither the short-term nor the long-term effects of spaceflight on physiological functions are as yet adequately understood. Methods for mitigating potential adverse effects as well as advanced subsystems to provide life support for human operators are needed. Further- more, optimal patterns of work, exercise, nutrition, and sleep must be worked out. and new procedures for main- taining health and treating illnesses in space will require development (SPACE). Thus, although the Space Trans- portation System opens a myriad of possibilities for the exploration of the potential of space, optimal use of the system will require many additional contributions from the science and technology enterprise. REMOTE SENSING, COMMUNICATIONS. AND DATA MANAGEMENT Sensing Earth and its environment from space provides information that can be obtained by no other known means. Thus, remote sensing is a singular resource which can contribute significantly to the acquisition of knowl- edge. Likewise, satellites in geosynchronous orbit have the unique capability of being in the direct line of sight of appreciable sections of the Earth's surface. They therefore offer unparalleled facility for receiving, processing, and transmitting information. THE USES AND POTENTIALS OE REMOTE SENSING Remote sensing from space can provide accurate and continuously updated information on Earth's resources and environment vital to the effectiveness of public policy decisions (SPACE; NR). as well as information useful in protecting our national security. Some remote sensing programs are already in operation, while others are in planning or development stages. Since 1972, the United States has conducted civil remote sensing for natural resources management and environmental monitoring through Landsat satellites. Those satellites provide infor- mation about both renewable and nonrenewable natural resources throughout the world, and their information is used by many other countries. The acquisition of those data has implications for the search for additional sources of such materials as scarce minerals and energy resources iASTR-III). Monitoring urban and suburban residential patterns is also possible through remote sensing. Another potentially useful application is in forecasting the production of all major crops (AGR; SPACE). Descriptions of additional applications appear in the Source Volumes (AGR\ NS; NR; SPACE; NRC-9). COMMUNICATIONS The phenomenal growth in international and domestic communications satellite networks during the 1970s sur- passed all projections and created a need for communica- tions satellites with greatly enhanced capabilities (SPACE). That growth rate is expected to continue, par- ticularly as some of the middle-tier countries implement their own systems and as other experimental applications, such as emergency and disaster communications and land-module voice communications, become operational (SPACE; lA). It should be noted that the development and use of communications satellites is one aspect of the national space effort where the private sector has been and will continue to be heavily involved. The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System currently under development is expected to become operational in 1984. It is designed to be able to handle increasingly higher rates of data transmission from Earth-orbiting sat- ellites. However, no existing or planned system is ex- pected to be able to handle the large data loads expected in the 1990s. For this reason, NASA is presently focusing research on developing, within a decade, a communica- tions capacity that is several times as large as the current capacity and is based on a highly flexible wide-band data communications network. Aspects of this research and development program include opening up a new frequen- cy band for satellite communications applications and developing advanced multibeam antennas and onboard switching systems to increase the capacity of presently used and planned frequency bands (SPACE). DATA MANAGEMENT Remote sensing and communications satellite capabilities are placing considerable stress on the ability to process and use data both effectively and cheaply. Thus, the field of data processing has emerged as a very important ele- ment in translating the potential of space into actual bene- fits. As a result of past technological developments, the end-to-end cost of processing satellite data has decreased substantially — from about $100 per processed megabit (in 42 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Other words, per million pieces of binary information) to something on the order of $6 per processed megabit. If the current rate of decrease continues to 1990, the cost would be reduced to $1 per megabit. Even so. the annual cost of processing daily full-coverage data from an operational Earth-resources satellite could still be extremely high (SPACE). The problem of cost could hamper exploitation of the full potential of remote-sensing capabilities during the coming decades (SPACE; ASTR-llI). INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION Since space projects are major, long-term undertakings, they provide attractive opportunities for international co- operation. The United States, as the world's leader in space, has taken the lead in implementing many of those opportunities. This country currently has a variety of cooperative space science programs with other nations. The largest and most complete cooperative space program is Spacelab, developed by 10 European countries under the management of the European Space Agency (ESA) according to design specifications arrived at jointly by NASA and ESA. NASA is also working with Canadian and French agencies to develop and demonstrate a satellite system that will locate ships and aircraft in distress by monitoring the emergency beacons they carry. The Sovi- ets are developing a similar system and have agreed to make it compatible with the U.S. /Canadian/French sys- tem. Cooperation between the United States and the U.S.S.R. in the life sciences has provided this country with some scientific information and some opportunities to fly experiments during the current hiatus in U.S.- manned flights (NRC-9; SPACE). The International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) also in- volves cooperation between NASA and the European Space Agency. In this project, which explores the work- ings at the boundaries of the Sun-Earth plasma, coordi- nated measurements of the magnetosphere are being made. A desirable future step in a comprehensive pro- gram of cooperative research on the structure of the mag- netosphere and its interaction with the solar wind would involve measurements in the total Sun-Earth system from a minimum of four spacecraft (NRC-9). The People's Republic of China (PRO has entered the space era — successfully orbiting eight satellites and de- veloping a launch vehicle to carry satellites into geo- synchronous orbit — and opportunities for cooperation with that country in civil space activities are beginning to open up. Under a recently signed U.S./PRC agreement, PRC is considering the purchase of major Earth-observa- tion equipment from U.S. industry (SPACE). Civil space applications have also become a potential arena for competition between this country and several other industrialized countries that are rapidly developing their own capabilities. For example, Ariane, a predomi- nantly French rocket, has been billed by some potential European users as a possible alternative to the Space Shuttle for delivering satellites into orbit. Although the development of Ariane is somewhat behind schedule, the long series of delays that plagued the Shuttle led the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization (Intelsat) to place orders for launching three satellites with Ariane instead of with the Shuttle. Several less developed countries are already profiting from U.S. space activities, particularly in the communi- cations and remote sensing areas. Planning is in process for the Second United Nations Conference on the Explo- ration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE), currently scheduled for 1982. The conference, the first since 1968, will focus on the practical benefits of space activities, particularly for the less developed countries (SPACE). However, the '"window from space" provided by re- mote sensing and communications satellites is by no means universally acclaimed. Indeed, the capabilities of those systems have led to demands — often strident — for a "new world information order" that could place severe limits on transborder information flow (AAAS-6). Com- munications satellites that can beam programs directly to home television receivers from distant locations are re- garded by some countries as a violation of their national sovereignty. In addition, remote sensing capabilities are perceived as being, at worst, a new kind of economic espionage posing a threat to the exclusive control of a nation over its own national resources — a focus of colo- nial exploitation. At best, the capabilities of both com- munications and remote sensing satellites raise difficult questions about who holds proprietary rights to informa- tion, and those questions are bound to be hotly debated during the next 5 years (AAAS-6: lA). A final source of potential friction that may, however, be easier to resolve is associated with the concern of several of the more scientifically advanced third world countries that they are being preempted from implementing satellite systems to serve their own domestic and regional needs. There are. of course, only a limited number of positions available for satellites in geosynchronous orbits, and at present a relatively limited frequency band available for satellite communications. Understandably, the less de- veloped countries do not want to be completely dependent on the good will of the industrialized countries for their future communications needs, a situation that could easily occur if available geosynchronous orbits and frequency bands become rapidly saturated (SPACE; lA). On the other hand, it is likely that technological developments will greatly increase the information-handling capacity of an orbital slot, as well as the number of noninterfering slots, so that there may well be no shortage of channel capacity in the future. Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Con.straints 43 The United States has entered an era of greatly en- hanced capabilities for exploring and making use of the potential of space. But, as in so many other areas, the United States no longer enjoys undisputed dominance. Other industrialized countries have developed their own impressive, if still limited, capabilities. Many less de- veloped countries now understand both the potential ad- vantages and the potential threats of sophisticated space systems. The development of U.S. space policy through the 1980s and beyond will have to recognize increasingly the concerns of other countries , the common as well as the divergent interests among countries, the political and financial advantages to be gained from carefully selected cooperative ventures, and the potentially stimulating effects of international competition in civil applications. D. Health Since the beginning of this century, great progress has been made in improving the health status, quality of life, and life expectancy of people in the United States and throughout the world. Figure 2 shows changes in life expectancy in the United States since 1900. That progress has come about through advances in sanitation conditions and nutritional practices, through the control of such infectious diseases as smallpox, and through the early diagnosis of disease and other improvements in the health care delivery system. Moreover there are numerous in- dications of further advances yet to come. The new re- 100 FIGURE 2. Survival of the Amencan Population. The curve for 1900 depicts the percentage of all people bom before 1900 who in that year would have been 10. 20. 30, 40 years old, etc. . and who, in fact, were alive in 1900. The curve for 1980 is constructed similarly. The "ideal" curve is a hypothetical extrapolation, with trauma (externally generated injury) the dominant cause of death in early life. Since 1900, life expectancy has increased significantly at all ages. Because of the remarkable increase in survival during early and middle years, the survival curve of Americans today need be improved relatively little to approximate the "ideal." Source: James F. Fnes, M.D. "Aging, Natural Death, and the Compres- sion of Morbidity." New England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 303( 1980), p. 131. combinant DNA technologies, for instance, are expected to aid the development of a wide variety of substances, including new and more effective vaccines and drugs, and perhaps will help in the control of genetic disorders. The discovery of interferon and its effects on the human orga- nism holds promise for improvements in the treatment of viral infections and, maybe, cancer. Recent advances in the neurosciences — such as the discoveries of additional neurotransmitter substances and the naturally occurring painkillers, the endorphins — have improved our under- standing of the functioning of the brain and may result in great progress in the treatment of mental disorders (NRC-2; NRC-14; NRC-17; HEALTH; ASF/?-///). All of these advances can be linked directly to biomedical sci- ence and technology activities. Some needed health improvements, however, depend heavily on lifestyle and on environmental changes, which advances in biomedical science and technology cannot effect alone. Such improvements will be facilitated by a broadened approach, merging biomedical, behavioral, and environmental considerations (NRC-2). There also appears to be an increasing need for the U.S. biomedical community to address diseases and conditions not typ- ically considered problems for Americans. For example, there are many tropical diseases to which American mili- tary personnel are exposed that will require increasing attention in order to counteract the severe toll those dis- eases take on combat activities. Those diseases include malaria, scrub typhus, hepatitis, diarrheal disease, and arbovirus infections (NS). These diseases also pose se- rious problems for people in the developing countries with whom the United States will increasingly interact (AAAS-7). In addition, the further development of un- conventional weapons will present new classes of injury, the treatment of which will require the development of new technologies (NS). An overriding concern to Americans now and in the years ahead is the escalating cost of the health delivery system. Between 1967 and 1978, health costs, as meas- 44 THt FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK ured by the Consumer Price Index (CPl), rose about 120 percent compared with 95 percent for the overall CPI. Although such other factors as labor costs need to be considered, one of the major mechanisms for slowing the escalating costs of the health care system may lie with health research advances. For example, new cost-efficient technologies can reduce the need for labor-intensive serv- ices and can suggest more appropriate ways to use outpa- tient ambulatory facilities, although, as discussed below, other technologies may raise health care costs. Advances in medical research may also reduce the use of costly surgical procedures and suggest less expensive forms of medical care. Furthermore, research into preventive ap- proaches for some diseases could greatly reduce the need for costly primary health care services (NRC-2). Thus, although advances in biomedical research and develop- ment cannot control escalating health costs by them- selves, they do present an opportunity for mitigating the problem in the coming years. This section considers a range of high-priority health needs and opportunities requiring consideration during the next 5 years. They are (1) increasing emphasis on the prevention of disease; (2) dealing with a shifting age distribution in the American population; 13) dealing with such addictive behaviors as alcoholism, drug abuse, and cigarette smoking; (4) fostering the development and as- sessment of health care technologies; and ( 5 ) development of better and more cost-effective health care delivery systems. Some constraints on accomplishing these goals are considered at the end of the discussion. FURTHERING THE PREVENTION OF ILLNESS The contributions of basic biomedical research to the prevention and containment of many illnesses have been substantial. For example, while cardiovascular diseases remain the number one killer in this country, the rate of death from those illnesses has fallen by more than 30 percent since 1950. A variety of factors have played a part in the rapid advance against heart disease, including more effective drugs and procedures for repairing the heart and diseased blood vessels. One major factor in the declining mortality rate from cardiovascular disorders appears to be an increase in the use of preventive measures. Adult Americans are increasingly heeding warnings about the adverse effects of certain personal habits, such as ciga- rette smoking and high consumption of animal fats, al- though there is evidence that the smoking rate in adoles- cents is increasing. Americans are becoming more aware of the dangers from high blood pressure. Additionally, new and improved methods for treating hypertension, including new drugs that are more effective and have fewer side effects, are now being applied widely (NRC-2; NRC-14). Cancer, the most feared of the life-threatening diseases, remains a major cause of death and debilitation in this country. Approximately one person in four now living in the United States will develop some form of cancer in his or her lifetime, and one in six will die from this broad class of diseases if present incidence and mortality rates remain the same. However, some 30-40 percent of all serious cancers are now being treated successfully, and there is reason to believe that that rate will continue to improve. In addition to treatment advances, there have been some marked advances in developing strategies for minimizing the risk of developing cancer Known risk factors for cancer include a variety of environmental fac- tors, such as tobacco smoke, radiation, and viruses, as well as such other factors as attitudinal variables, genetic predisposition, congenital defects, and aging (NRC-2). Although great progress has been made in both the treatment and the prevention of illness, remaining high incidence and mortality rates indicate that additional progress is still badly needed. It is widely agreed that further progress in the treatment of disease will come primarily from additional basic biomedical research efforts into the causes and detailed courses of specific disorders (NRC-2; NRC-14; HEALTH). Those research efforts will have to continue if methods of treating illness are to be substantially improved in the coming years. Major opportunities also appear to lie in illness preven- tion — although, of course, not all illness can be pre- vented — and a variety of suggestions for maximizing the probability of achieving those potential advances appears in the Source Volumes (NRC-2: SSRC-2; NS; HEALTH). Two related strategies meriting attention and action in the next 5 years are: (1) improving the research base linking behavior patterns and lifestyles with cancer, coronary, and other diseases; and (2) increasing efforts to motivate the public to adopt healthier lifestyles and behaviors. IMPROVING THE RESEARCH BASE LINKING BEHAVIOR PATTERNS AND LIFESTYLES WITH CANCER, CORONARY, AND OTHER DISEASES Many medical problems, including some of the most common in modem society, such as heart disease and cancer, appear to be influenced by social and behavioral factors. The processes linking behavior patterns to physi- cal illness may be grouped into three broad categories: (1) direct psychophysiological effects, which involve changes in tissue function via physiological responses to such psychological and social inputs as stress; (2) habits and lifestyles that are damaging to health, such as ciga- rette smoking, excessive consumption of alcohol, and poor dietary patterns; and (3) reactions to illness and the sick role, which may lead to a delay in seeking medical care or a failure to comply with treatment and rehabilita- tion regimens (SSRC-2). These categories include a broad range of factors gener- ally acknowledged to be important in health and illness. However, convincing evidence about the specific causal Finn relationship between risk factors and heart disease, can- cer, and other major causes of illness is lacking. There- fore, research efforts need to progress beyond their cur- rent point of simply identifying correlations between psychosocial factors and physical illness toward the iden- tification of those causal relationships. Accordingly, an important priority for scientific research will be to inte- grate behavioral and biomedical knowledge in a manner that identifies the factors underlying the interplay between behavior, pathological processes, and bodily dysfunction to provide a base from which truly effective treatment and prevention techniques might be developed (SSRC-2). MOTIVATING THE PUBLIC TO ADOPT HEALTHIER LIFESTYLES AND BEHAVIOR PATTERNS Although the evidence is not yet complete, there are ample indications that lifestyles and behavior patterns are critical elements in sustaining high levels of individual health (NRC-2; SSRC-2; HEALTH). A related problem for the health care enterprise then is: How can individuals be better motivated to adopt healthier lifestyles and behaviors? Various approaches have been used in the past, most of which have taken the tactic of modifying or treating al- ready established patterns of behavior Some of them are (1) using social pressures and media campaigns to educate groups of people; (2) using individual treatment ap- proaches, such as behavior therapy and hypnosis, that can condition individuals to change their deleterious life- styles; and (3) using public health approaches aimed at labeling of dangerous products and warning the public in other ways of potential health hazards. Although these approaches have been moderately successful, a different kind of approach, one that attempts to dissuade people from adopting those deleterious behavior patterns in the first place, could also be productive. Development of those techniques, which might serve preventive rather than simply treatment functions, requires a shift in re- search focus toward acquiring a better understanding of the factors encouraging health-impairing habits, and not just a focus on techniques to modify them once they have been acquired (SSRC-2). DEALING WITH A SHIFTING AGE DISTRIBUTION There have been major changes in the demographic profile of the U . S . population over the past decades . The changes have stemmed both from a sharp increase in birth rates after 1947. with a sharper decline after 1957, and from increased lifespans for older Americans. Of particular importance to the health field are the changes in age and sex characteristics of the population. The number of per- sons aged 65 and above, for example, is now projected to increase by nearly 50 percent before the end of the 20th tioiuil Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints 45 century. Marked differences in male and female mortality rates will also create different lifestyles and health needs for men and women. For example, under present condi- tions, a newborn American female can expect to live 9 years longer than a newborn male (NRC-1; NRC-2). Continued changes in the age/sex profiles of the popula- tion will require both individual and societal flexibility in anticipating national health care needs. On the one hand, more people will be unwilling to retire at relatively early ages, since their capabilities for productive work are likely to remain high longer into their lifetimes. On the other hand, more people will have to be concerned with supporting and caring for an elderly parent, and the num- ber of people in nursing homes and intermediary care facilities will increase. There also will be increased pres- sure on the working population to provide for the needs of the elderly (NRC-1). These changes will demand both individual and societal adjustments. Changes in the age and sex profiles of the population have, similarly, placed new demands on science and tech- nology to increase knowledge about the aging process and about health needs and health care appropriate for that population. Additional research emphasis on problems of aging people will be needed during the next 5 years to enable the United States both to deal with and to take full advantage of the potential in its aging population. Science and technology can affect problems associated with an aging population in many ways, two of which are dis- cussed below. One is by increasing the functional capaci- ties of the elderly, and the other is by assessing and redesigning health services to meet the needs of the aged more effectivelv. INCREASING THE FUNCTIONAL CAPACITY OF THE ELDERLY People reaching the age of 65 today are more educated, healthy, and economically secure than ever before, and their capacity for intellectual and physical performance continues to rise. However, in the face of the projected demographic changes noted above, the potential for even further development and expansion of the quality and productiveness of their lives needs to be further explored. That is partly due to a relative lack of knowledge about the true functional capabilities of that population, about their health care needs, and about the form of appropriate health services suited to sustaining longer, healthier, and more productive lives. Two kinds of factors will require particular attention if the functional capacity of the aged is to be increased. One set of factors is related to the de- bilitating effects of both disease and its treatment. For example, although some marked progress has been made in treating such disorders as arthritis, the senile demen- tias, diabetes, and atherosclerosis and other cardiovascu- lar disorders, there is still a long way to go before the debilitating effects of those and other diseases are con- 46 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK trolled. That will require continued and concerted re- search into the causes and courses of the diseases that af- flict the elderly (NRC-Obs.: NRC-2; HEALTH). There is also increasing evidence to show that in older people the body handles drugs differently than it does in younger people. Since the elderly often suffer from multi- ple chronic diseases and, therefore, follow complicated drug regimens, they are unusually susceptible to the un- toward and debilitating effects of drug interactions. Therefore, additional information will be needed about drug metabolism and drug interactions in the elderly so that less debilitating and less dangerous drug regimens can be instituted.' The second set of factors reducing the functional capac- ity of the elderly is concerned with social and behavioral patterns. Lifestyles and behavior patterns have long been suggested to affect longevity and health in later life. However, there is not yet a clear understanding of that relationship. In addition, there is increasing evidence that nursing practices can significantly affect the functional capacity of the elderly (SSRC^). Furthermore, the social stresses to which the elderly are subjected, such as changes in family circumstances and in their economic status, can have major debilitating effects. Although some progress has been made in counteracting those stresses, - additional efforts will be needed in the coming years. ASSESSING AND REDESIGNING HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES TO ACCOMMODATE THE HEALTH NEEDS OF THE AGED Public health workers and physicians agree that care of the elderly should be designed to maintain the functional and social independence of people as much as possible. Possi- ble strategies for approaching that goal include ( 1 ) provid- ing for better detection of emerging illnesses before they advance and the provision of assistance prior to the de- cline of functioning; (2) improving health care facilities to deter further institutionalization and enhance the ability ot people to return to community living; and (3) increasing the availability of intensive services to treat and rehabili- tate the elderly and chronically ill so that they may main- tain the highest possible level of functioning (NRC-1; SSRC^). Science and technology can play an important role in all three strategies. Through improving methods for iden- tifying high-risk cases and through preadmission cer- tification services, alternative living and health care arrangements may be provided to limit unnecessary in- stitutionalization. Through research advances, the quality of care provided in outpatient units, nursing homes, and intermediate care facilities may be enhanced. Similarly, advances in medicine are leading to higher quality and more appropriate care for the chronically and acutely ill. New drugs, for instance, may permit significant numbers of patients to be shifted from surgical to medical care and from institutions to community settings (SSRC^). DEALING WITH THE PROBLEMS OF ADDICTION Substance abuse is one of the health problems causing greatest concern in recent years. Alcoholism, drug abuse, and cigarette smoking have all been related to both a wide variety of diseases and numerous social problems (HEALTH; Outlook /). For example, of all of the oppor- tunities for preventing such diseases as cancer and ar- teriosclerosis, one of the most important is the reduction of cigarette smoking {Outlook I). However, while more than 30 million Americans have stopped smoking since the Surgeon General's Report, Smoking and Health, was published in 1964, there are still over 50 million smokers in the United States today (SSRC-2). Ftirthermore, smok- ing rates have been rising more rapidly among adolescents than in any other segment of the population, and, there- fore, reduction in this habit must be a critical focus of efforts if we are to be successful at all in slowing the onset of life-threatening diseases. Alcohol and drug-related addictions remain major problems for American society. Although there is no accurate estimate of the total incidence or prevalence of alcohol abuse, it has been estimated that over 10 million American adults are either alcoholics or problem drink- ers. That is roughly 7 percent of the population 18 years of age or older Although the number of heroin addicts is estimated to have dropped below one-half million by 1980, the abuse and misuse of most other psychoactive drugs appear to be rising. In economic terms, the costs of alcohol and drug abuse have been very high. They were estimated in 1975 at $43 billion for alcohol abuse and $10 billion for drug abuse, and they seem to have been escalat- ing since then.' There are also the widely acknowledged social problems the addictive behaviors present. Science and technology can help with the problems of addiction in a variety of general ways: by determining the neural and physiological bases of addiction and addictive behaviors, by increasing understanding of the barriers to changing behavior, by increasing understanding of the causal relationships between addictive behaviors and ill- ness, and by better understanding the relationship be- tween childrearing practices and the presence of addictive behaviors later in life (SSRC-2; HEALTH). Two fre- quently cited kinds of actions that can be taken to facilitate the application of scientific and technological advances to the problems of addictive behaviors are: (1) increasing the knowledge base about the causes of addictive behaviors, so that more effective prevention and treatment regimens can be developed; and (2) increasing efforts to translate basic behavioral research findings into biomedical prac- tice (SSRC-2; HEALTH; Outlook I). INCREASING THE KNOWLEDGE BASE ABOUT THE CAUSES OF ADDICTION Any attempts to increase efforts either to prevent the development of or to control addiction once developed will have to be based on information about its causes. Functional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints 47 Therefore, if substantial progress is to be made in the coming years in combating drug and substance abuse problems, increased research efforts into the causative factors will be needed. Much has already been learned in that area, and much is currently being studied. Major efforts are now under way concerned with cigarette smok- ing; those efforts should further our understanding of the physiological and psychological causes and basic mecha- nisms of nicotine dependence and withdrawal and should, therefore, increase the effectiveness of treatment of that public health problem. Studies also are ongoing or planned to understand better both the physiological and the psychological consequences of marijuana use in ado- lescents. Research on genetic predispositions and other biomedical factors appears to offer the first prospects for advancing knowledge of the causes of alcoholism (HEALTH). However, much additional research will be needed before ultimate solutions to addiction problems will emerge (HEALTH; SSRC-2). INCREASING EFFORTS TO TRANSLATE BASIC BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH FINDINGS INTO BIOMEDICAL PRACTICE The general problem of transferring basic scientific find- ings into practical use is discussed elsewhere in this re- port. However, there are some problems particular to behavioral approaches to the treatment of addictive be- haviors that should be highlighted here, since the incor- poration of behavioral treatments into practice has been at a slower pace than has been the acceptance of innovative biomedical advances. One reason for the slow pace of incorporation of behavioral approaches may be a lack of convincing evaluation data to document the effectiveness of the various innovative approaches. A second may be a simple lack of systematic communication between be- havioral and biomedical scientists. Therefore, there is a need to determine more conclusively exactly which be- havioral approaches are effective and which are not and, then, a need to improve the processes by which such information is disseminated to both health practitioners and the general public (SSRC-2). FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGIES As the size and significance of the Federal research effort have expanded, there has been increased concern about obtaining the greatest possible return from government- sponsored research. Of the $6.9 billion spent on health research in 1979, 62 percent, or $4. 3 billion, was spent by Federal agencies, and, of that amount, approximately 80 percent was provided by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).'' Recognizing that research and development frequently provide results that are useful beyond the original intent, there is a growing effort in Federal agencies to seek spinoff applications, to assess the relative benefits and costs of new technologies, and to disseminate technology created with Federal funding for use by others (ASTR-II). A variety of problems and constraints associated with the use of new health technologies will have to be consid- ered during the 1980s. For example, it obviously is impos- sible to implement all new technologies. Therefore, choices among the many opportunities and among various alternatives for achieving the same goal will have to be made. Questions must be asked about the costs, as well as the benefits, of those new technologies. Although many new technologies are cost-effective, others may not be. In addition, the high costs of certain technologies, such as the new scanning technologies, raise questions as to how those technologies might best be dispersed to serve the broadest possible range of patients. Finally, there may prove to be a need, in some cases, to control the rate of adoption of emerging technologies as their benefits and costs are carefully assessed. Decisions on those issues, like most policy decisions, are, of course, frequently based on more than scientific grounds (see Section I-E). Prior to 1977, there was no formal mechanism at the Federal level for coordinating and conducting assess- ments of new or existing health care technologies, with the exception of the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) programs related to pharmaceuticals. However, the as- sessment and dissemination of medical technology have accelerated rapidly in the last few years. For example, the Office of Medical Applications of Research (OMAR) was established in the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in 1977. OMAR, with the support of the National Library of Medicine (NLM), now serves as the focal point of a Federal-level strategy to assess the efficacy and safety of new health technologies and to aid the transfer of the results of those assessments to both practitioners and the general public (HEALTH: ASTR-III). As an example of what has been done to achieve agree- ment about the efficacy of a new or emerging technology, OMAR emphasizes a process that involves the identifica- tion and selection of a broad range of health experts invited to participate in working groups. Broad and open participation is encouraged in the conduct of such assess- ments. Results from the assessments are then passed to the medical and scientific communities and to health planning and health delivery organizations (HEALTH). However, in spite of those programs and the progress made to date, several problems remain surrounding the development of strategies for transferring basic research knowledge into practice or technological development most effectively and, then, for assessing those new technologies. Science and technology efforts can be useful in both regards. 48 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK DISSEMINATING RESEARCH FINDINGS LEADING TO TECHNOLOGICAL ADOPTION The dissemination of research findings with potential usefulness for the development of new and emerging technologies traditionally has not been well coordinated (See Section I-C). In the health area, increased Federal efforts have been begun during the past few years, under such auspices as the Lister Hill National Center for Bio- medical Communications and the National Library of Medicine, to improve mechanisms for tranferring basic research knowledge into practice. Those are beginnings, but additional efforts will be needed to provide truly effective dissemination of such findings in the coming years (HEALTH). An example of an innovative transfer mechanism in operation is the "Knowledge Base Program" at the Lister Hill Center. Through this computer-based program, knowledge is synthesized in a particular subject for use by a specified audience, such as those interested in a certain new technology. A prototype of the system, applied to the field of viral hepatitis, was established in 1977 and has been subsequently refined. Similar efforts might be initi- ated for the transfer of basic research knowledge in areas underlying application of emerging health technologies throughout the Federal and State Governments. IMPROVING THE ASSESSMENT AND REGULATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES With the advent of more and more sophisticated tech- nologies to meet specific needs, the possibility of misuse also increases. In an effort to control the use of costly and. at times, inappropriate medical technology, various gov- ernment regulations have been enacted to protect individ- uals and contain the costs of care. Federal regulatory activities, however, have often failed to give the regulators a clear mandate with workable goals (Outlook I). Pairther- more. when billions of dollars hang on compliance deci- sions, intense controversy and delays are inevitable. There is a need, therefore, to improve the process of regulating health care technologies. Scientific research can be useful both in assessing the costs and benefits of regulations and in curtailing or en- couraging the use of new technologies (Section 1-E). One problem in applying regulations with respect to costs is that current estimates are almost inevitably based on the costs of existing technology. Such estimates tend to over- state those costs. The longer range risks, too, are some- times either under or over estimated. Through improved methods of cost projection and the use of an expanded base of experience, such estimates could be greatly refined (AAAS-5; see also Section 1-E). Therefore, a greater effort is needed to improve the coordination of research findings in both the development and the control of health technologies over the next 5 years. Increased efforts to assess the relative costs and benefits of new and emerging technologies also will be needed, both to ensure wider application of cost-efficient tech- nologies by the private and public health sectors and to control the adoption of those technologies that are costly and only marginally effective. Many of the new tech- nologies do promise to contribute to cost containment over time and to improve the quality of care offered Americans. However, only through careful assessment of the costs and benefits of those technologies can an effec- tive policy for their adoption be developed (HEALTH). ENSURING ADEQUATE AND APPROPRIATE HEALTH SERVICE DELIVERY TO ALL AMERICANS Economic constraints make it especially important that available health resources be used as efficiently as possi- ble. A key consideration in ensuring the availability of adequate and appropriate health services to all citizens continues to be the improved access to appropriate serv- ices for those persons who traditionally have been under- served. Among those groups are Black Americans, the Spanish-heritage population. Asian or Pacific Islanders. American Indians and Alaskan natives, rural Americans, the elderly, and low-income groups. While various popu- lation subsets have both unique attributes and certain common points regarding health status, some ethnic groups are generally not as healthy and do not live as long as do other groups of Americans. Several alternate types of health care delivery systems that now exist, or are in the process of being developed, offer increased access and more appropriate health care to underserved populations. The most prevalent of those delivery services is the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO). As of 1978. 199 HMOs were providing health care to more than 7 million Americans. While there are various types of HMOs, the most predominant is the Prepaid Group Practice. Under that model, the families or individuals enrolled agree to pay a set monthly premium to the HMO, whether or not they need medical care. In many cases, the monthly premium is paid by the employer or by the government. The staff of the HMO is thus motivated, at least in theory, to keep people healthy and reduce unnecessary utilization of services. Other health care programs aimed at underserved popu- lations include community health centers, maternal and child health services, alcohol and drug abuse centers, and migrant health programs. In addition, the Indian Health Service provides a full range of preventive, primary medi- cal, community health, and rehabilitative services to Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 49 Indians and Alaskan natives living on reservations. The network includes 51 hospitals, 99 health centers, and more than 300 health stations and satellite field health clinics.^ There is a need for systematic evaluations of existing programs over the next 5 years to provide a basis for adapting or redesigning health care services to meet the needs of all Americans. It is necessary to know if partici- pants in government-sponsored programs receive health care equal to that received by other Americans, and whether health service agencies can be modified to provide for preventive health services to participants. Assessments of the relative merits of various delivery models for the provision of care to selected populations are also needed. CONSTRAINTS ON ADVANCES IN THE HEALTH AREA The preceding discussion and those in the appended Source Volumes highlight a large number of current and emerging opportunities for science and technology to have significant positive impacts on national health prob- lems. The ability of the science and technology enterprise to exploit fully those opportunities will depend on a number of policy decisions to be made in the next few years. Most of the issues about which those decisions will have to be made are generic to all areas of science and technology; they concern such factors as financial re- sources, instrumentation, and information transfer. Two types of constraints on exploiting opportunities for im- proving the health of the American public are worth mentioning explicitly; (1) human resource limitations, and (2) effects of regulations on biomedical research. In the case of human resource limitations, there re- mains the perennial problem of the geographic distribu- tion of physicians. Additionally, there currently is a decrease in the number of young physicians entering careers in academic medicine, which will present prob- lems in the longer term. Whereas, in the past, more than one third of medical students aspired to a career as clini- cian-teacher-investigator, that fraction has now dimin- ished significantly. It is evident in terms of both the number of vacancies on medical school faculties and the number of applications for research support received by government agencies from persons with M.D. degrees. Although the causes of that trend are not well understood, it has serious implications." Much of the progress in medicine during the past decade has come from academic physicians. Therefore, reversing that trend will be an important priority for the coming years if we are to realize the full potential for improved health presented by scien- tific and technological activities (NRC-Obs.). Federal regulations impose a second major constraint on health-related scientific and technological activities. Whereas in many cases regulations are imposed on the products of research and development, regulations in the health area are frequently imposed on the scientific ac- tivities themselves (Section I-E). There is no disagree- ment that some control should be placed on health-related science and technology activities. Clearly, no individual should be subjected to undue harm, whether physical or psychological, as a result of biomedical research, what- ever the potential benefits to be derived by society. However, applying those regulations in specific cases to determine, for example, what constitutes undue harm, or undue harm relative to a certain anticipated benefit, is often exceedingly difficult. Moreover, there is a growing belief that some regulations of biomedical research have been unduly restrictive and have unnecessarily hampered health-related scientific and technological progress. That concern, and the discussion surrounding it. led to revi- sions in the guidelines for recombinant DNA research in November 1980 and to revisions in the regulations for the protection of human and animal subjects in research sup- ported by the Department of Health and Human Services in January 1981. Continued discussion and evaluation of the regulations controlling those research activities will be needed to ensure maximal use of the potential from bio- medical research in the coming years. REFERENCES 1. U.S. Department of Health. Education and Welfare. Healihy Peo- ple. The Surf>eim General's Report on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Pnnting Office, 1979. 2. Ibid. 3. National Data Book. Washington, D.C.: Alcohol. Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration. January 1980. p. 10. 4. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Health Research Activities c^ the Department of Health anil Human Services: Current Efforts and Proposed Initiatives. A report of the HHS Steering Commit- tee for the Development of a Health Research Strategy. NIH Publication No. 80-2053. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1980. 5. Indian Health Service, Justification for Appropriation, Fiscal Year 1979. pp 2-15. 6. Personnel Needs and Training for Biomedical and Behavioral Research. Washington. D.C: National Academy of Sciences. 1980. 50 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK E. Energy The United States developed economically in an environ- ment that included secure, readily available, and rela- tively inexpensive energy supplies. With the petroleum embargo of 1973 and the subsequent rapid increase in the cost of imported petroleum, there has been' a growing national awareness of the economic and national security implications of our dependence upon imported energy supplies. In the first few years after 1973, U.S. energy policy focused heavily on Federal intervention in the market and attempted to protect U.S. consumers from the reality of world petroleum prices. One adverse con- sequence of this policy was to discourage the long-term private sector investments in research and development necessary to increase domestic petroleum and natural gas production and to develop viable alternative energy sources that will inevitably be needed when world pe- troleum production begins to decline. This Administration's energy policy is an integral part of the President's comprehensive Program for Economic Recovery. It is based on the conviction that, with regard to the development of energy sources, the collective judg- ment of properly motivated technical innovators, busi- nessmen, and consumers is generally superior to any form of centralized programming. Hence, Federal investments will be made only in long-term research with high risks and potentially high payoffs. In general, the Federal Gov- ernment will no longer assume responsibility for acceler- ating the development of newer technologies. Addi- tionally, public funds will not be used to subsidize domestic energy production or conservation on the grounds that such actions lead to little additional security, and, on the contrary, divert capital, workers, and initiative from uses that contribute more to society and to the economy. Hence, this policy is designed to meet the challenge of providing a healthy economic and policy environment in which rational energy production and consumption decisions can be made that reflect the true value of the Nation's resources. The power of the free market in alleviating short-term energy shortages is suggested by the fact that the growth in energy consumption in the United States, and of oil and transportation fuels in particular, is moderating signifi- cantly as conservation measures brought on by higher prices begin to take effect (Figure 3). Worldwide modera- tion in petroleum demand has also led to a glut on the international market and thus to a temporary stabilization of crude oil prices. Forecasts of energy demand growth vary considerably, depending on economic and technological assumptions, on the assumed mix of future energy sources, and on projected price trends. Significantly, however, most recent forecasts project considerably smaller growth in U.S. energy consumption than earlier forecasts.' In particular. 50 40 30 20 1 1 n Utilrty Conversion Losses ^ Transportation \ Industrial > With Electricity Distributed- Residential and Commercial ' ^^-^ '* 10 ^^^^^^^^^^^^M {^^^^^ro^^^^w^77??z^>^;^